本文選題：影響渠道 + 量化寬松貨幣政策��； 參考：《廣東財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：2008年席卷全球的金融危機(jī)是自上個(gè)世紀(jì)30年代以來最為嚴(yán)重的一次危機(jī)，美國次貸危機(jī)對(duì)此次金融危機(jī)負(fù)有直接責(zé)任，全世界經(jīng)濟(jì)因此遭到重創(chuàng)而陷入衰退。為應(yīng)對(duì)金融危機(jī)，時(shí)至2008年9月，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)宣布推出第一輪量化寬松貨幣政策QE1，替代扭曲操作。與此同時(shí)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)把利率降低到0—0.25%的極低水平，并宣稱將持續(xù)保持零利率政策。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況與貨幣政策直接掛鉤，這是有史以來美國貨幣政策的第一次。 在國際市場上美元有著作為國際儲(chǔ)備貨幣的重要地位，美國啟動(dòng)量化寬松貨幣政策必然將會(huì)對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)造成重大的影響，特別是對(duì)于新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體國家，由于量化寬松貨幣政策所釋放的大量流動(dòng)性涌入新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體國家，，造成這些國家的資產(chǎn)泡沫和通貨膨脹。于此同時(shí)我國為世界上最大的新興國家，在美國釋放的大量流動(dòng)性必然使我國成為“熱錢”棲息的最佳場所，因此我國資本市場必然遭受美國量化寬松貨幣政策所釋放的流動(dòng)性的沖擊，從而造成股價(jià)的非預(yù)期波動(dòng)。所以探討美國貨幣政策對(duì)中國股票價(jià)格的影響，能起到金融市場預(yù)警作用，能過充分認(rèn)識(shí)和把握潛在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，對(duì)我國金融市場的穩(wěn)定與繁榮起到至關(guān)重要的作用。 本文先從定性的角度分析了美國量化寬松貨幣政策形成的背景、原因、操作工具、及對(duì)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的具體影響，并通過國際傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制，從理論上分析美國量化寬松貨幣政策對(duì)我國股票價(jià)格的影響渠道。在實(shí)證方面，為量化美國量化寬松貨幣政策對(duì)我國股票價(jià)格的影響，本文就該政策對(duì)我國股票價(jià)格的影響渠道、方式、程度及進(jìn)行了VAR模型檢驗(yàn)。 實(shí)證結(jié)果表明：美國量化寬松貨幣政策所釋放的大量流動(dòng)性在國內(nèi)股票市場通過短期國際資本、我國貨幣供給、匯率、人民幣利率等渠道的傳導(dǎo)在造成了我國股價(jià)的波動(dòng)，對(duì)我國股票價(jià)格造成了一定程度上的影響。 最后，針對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)近來推行的QE3和QE4，本文提出了中國降低QE3、QE4對(duì)我國股票市場價(jià)格不利沖擊的對(duì)策建議，并對(duì)美國貨幣政策對(duì)我國股票價(jià)格的影響這一研究方向上進(jìn)行了展望。
[Abstract]:The financial crisis that engulfed the world in 2008 was the worst since the 1930s. The U.S. subprime crisis was directly responsible for the financial crisis, and the world economy was hit hard and plunged into recession. In response to the financial crisis, until September 2008, the Fed announced its first round of quantitative easing, QE1, as an alternative to distorting operations. At the same time, the Fed cut interest rates to extremely low levels of 0-0.25 percent and declared that it would continue to maintain zero interest rates. For the first time in history, the Fed has linked the state of the economy directly to monetary policy. As the US dollar plays an important role as an international reserve currency in the international market, the launching of quantitative easing monetary policy by the United States will inevitably have a significant impact on the global economy, especially for emerging economies. Asset bubbles and inflation in emerging economies have been caused by the flood of liquidity unleashed by quantitative easing. At the same time, China is the largest emerging country in the world, and the large amount of liquidity released in the United States is bound to make our country the best place for "hot money" to perch. Therefore, China's capital market is bound to suffer the impact of the liquidity released by the quantitative easing monetary policy of the United States, resulting in unexpected volatility of stock prices. Therefore, discussing the influence of American monetary policy on Chinese stock price can play an early warning role in the financial market, can fully understand and grasp the potential risks, and play a vital role in the stability and prosperity of our financial market. This paper first analyzes the background, reasons, operational tools, and the specific impact on China's economy of the monetary policy of quantitative easing in the United States from a qualitative point of view, and through the international transmission mechanism, This paper theoretically analyzes the influence of quantitative easing monetary policy on China's stock price. In order to quantify the influence of the monetary policy of quantitative easing on the stock price of our country, this paper examines the influence channel, mode, degree and degree of the policy on the stock price of our country by VAR model. The empirical results show that the large amount of liquidity released by the quantitative easing monetary policy of the United States in the domestic stock market through short-term international capital, China's money supply, exchange rate, RMB interest rate and other channels of transmission caused the volatility of China's stock price. To a certain extent, the stock price of China has been affected. Finally, in view of the QE3 and QE4 carried out recently by the Federal Reserve, this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for China to reduce the adverse impact of QE3QE4 on the stock market price of our country, and looks forward to the research direction of the influence of American monetary policy on the stock price of our country.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣東財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F827.12;F832.51

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