本文選題：利率市場(chǎng)化 + 金融發(fā)展��； 參考：《武漢大學(xué)》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來(lái),我國(guó)堅(jiān)持市場(chǎng)化基本取向,不斷深化金融體制改革。穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)利率市場(chǎng)化改革是深化我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)金融改革的重點(diǎn)工作,已列入“十二五規(guī)劃綱要”。自1996年起,人民銀行從同業(yè)拆借市場(chǎng)著手,開始探索中國(guó)利率市場(chǎng)化改革,主要思路是“先外幣,后本幣；先貸款,后存款；先長(zhǎng)期、大額,后短期、小額”。2012年人民幣存貸款利率市場(chǎng)化又邁出重要一步,上下限區(qū)間放寬。預(yù)計(jì)“十二五”期間,利率市場(chǎng)化改革將有明顯進(jìn)展。研究利率市場(chǎng)化對(duì)于辨析中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型中的問題、避免陷入滯漲泥潭、提升經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展層次具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義；對(duì)于辨析政府在經(jīng)濟(jì)中應(yīng)該扮演的角色具有重要的理論意義。本文將以金融發(fā)展理論為基礎(chǔ),分析國(guó)內(nèi)外利率市場(chǎng)化改革進(jìn)程及經(jīng)驗(yàn),發(fā)掘利率市場(chǎng)化改革的條件和影響指標(biāo),分析中國(guó)商業(yè)銀行受到的影響,并對(duì)改革后新的利率運(yùn)作機(jī)制作出展望。全文共分為五章,各章主要內(nèi)容如下： 第一章為緒論。首先論述本文的選題背景和意義,然后對(duì)有關(guān)的研究文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)梳理并簡(jiǎn)要評(píng)述,接下來(lái)介紹本文的研究思路和所使用的研究方法,最后提出文章的主要?jiǎng)?chuàng)新點(diǎn)和不足之處。 第二章分析利率市場(chǎng)化的必要性。首先深入闡述了利率的內(nèi)涵和利率市場(chǎng)的內(nèi)涵。然后,本章從實(shí)踐角度分析了利率市場(chǎng)化是適應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體制不斷發(fā)展的需要、是培養(yǎng)金融機(jī)構(gòu)自主定價(jià)能力的需要、是尊重企業(yè)和居民權(quán)利以及推動(dòng)金融服務(wù)能力提高的需要、是進(jìn)一步提高宏觀調(diào)控能力的需要。同時(shí),在金融約束模型基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合中國(guó)分割經(jīng)濟(jì)的特點(diǎn),提出了中國(guó)利率市場(chǎng)化模型。模型顯示利率市場(chǎng)化之后,如果分割的市場(chǎng)融合為統(tǒng)一的市場(chǎng),則新的收入資本比將可能高于利率市場(chǎng)化之前,從而促使經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展速度提升到更高層次,但效率的提高并不是必然結(jié)果,這表示了利率市場(chǎng)化蘊(yùn)含的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。最后,對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)體制改革進(jìn)程和利率市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程進(jìn)行了回顧,提出了未來(lái)中國(guó)利率市場(chǎng)化需要面對(duì)和解決的問題。 第三章進(jìn)行了國(guó)際比較研究。首先對(duì)美國(guó)、日本等發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家和俄羅斯、印度等新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家利率市場(chǎng)的背景、動(dòng)因、過程、特點(diǎn)和影響進(jìn)了深入細(xì)致的研究。然后分析總結(jié)了利率市場(chǎng)化成功的“五個(gè)條件”和對(duì)中國(guó)的啟示。 第四章進(jìn)一步論述了中國(guó)利率市場(chǎng)化的路徑選擇問題。首先指出中國(guó)利率市場(chǎng)化應(yīng)選擇一條漸進(jìn)式、雙軌制的路徑。然后,深入分析了漸進(jìn)式、雙軌制的內(nèi)涵,提出了利率市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程應(yīng)關(guān)注的“四個(gè)能力”。最后,為提高利率市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程決策的科學(xué)性,本章用模糊數(shù)學(xué)的方法,結(jié)合專家打分法,建立了利率市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程決策的指標(biāo)體系。 第五章從中國(guó)商業(yè)銀行的視角,分析了利率市場(chǎng)化的影響及應(yīng)對(duì)策略。首先從利差收窄、利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理、逆向選擇和道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)角度分析了影響,并通過銀行競(jìng)爭(zhēng)行為模型,結(jié)合中國(guó)實(shí)際存貸款數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。其次,分析了中國(guó)商業(yè)銀行定價(jià)機(jī)制的現(xiàn)狀和與國(guó)際先進(jìn)銀行的能力差距。然后,提出了利率完全放開并不是中國(guó)利率市場(chǎng)化的終點(diǎn),新的利率運(yùn)行機(jī)制的建立是階段性終點(diǎn)。新機(jī)制是基于新資本協(xié)議,境內(nèi)外聯(lián)動(dòng)的,以質(zhì)量和效益為核心的利率運(yùn)行機(jī)制。這種機(jī)制中銀行是運(yùn)行的中心,銀行將以風(fēng)險(xiǎn)調(diào)整后的資本回報(bào)率為主線,進(jìn)行資源配置和構(gòu)建業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略。最后展望了利率市場(chǎng)化運(yùn)行機(jī)制將是一個(gè)面對(duì)不斷變化的監(jiān)管環(huán)境不斷完善的過程,建議商業(yè)銀行要不斷提高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定價(jià)能力和自律水平,以資本集約分配為基礎(chǔ),優(yōu)化資源配置。 通過以上研究,本文歸納總結(jié)出中國(guó)利率市場(chǎng)化改革是經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的必由之路,但是改革也蘊(yùn)含著較大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。改革進(jìn)程要注意培養(yǎng)“四個(gè)能力”(銀行的管理能力、企業(yè)的適應(yīng)能力、政府的調(diào)控能力和市場(chǎng)的適應(yīng)能力),要滿足“五個(gè)條件”(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定、健全的金融監(jiān)管體制、科學(xué)的銀行管理機(jī)制、完善的存款保險(xiǎn)制度、現(xiàn)代化的市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體系),并應(yīng)該建立利率市場(chǎng)進(jìn)程的決策模型,提高決策的科學(xué)性。中國(guó)商業(yè)銀行的利率定價(jià)能力仍有待提高。利率市場(chǎng)化之后,中國(guó)應(yīng)該建立基于新資本協(xié)議的新型管制體系,以一種市場(chǎng)化的資本管制方式代替行政性的利率管制方式,促使銀行以資本集約分配為基礎(chǔ),優(yōu)化銀行資源配置。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China has adhered to the basic orientation of the market and deepened the reform of the financial system. The steady promotion of the reform of the interest rate marketization is the key work of deepening the economic and financial reform in China. It has been included in the "12th Five-Year plan outline". Since 1996, the people's Bank has begun to explore the reform of China's interest rate marketization from the interbank market. The main idea is "foreign currency, post currency, first loan, post deposit, long-term, large, short term, short term, small, small".2012 RMB deposit and loan interest rate marketization is also an important step, the upper and lower limits are relaxed. It is expected that during the "12th Five-Year", interest rate marketization will have obvious progress. It is of great practical significance to avoid stagflation mire and improve the economic development level. It is of great theoretical significance to distinguish and analyze the role that the government should play in the economy. Based on the theory of financial development, this paper will analyze the process and experience of the reform of interest rate marketization at home and abroad, and explore the reform of interest rate marketization. The paper analyzes the impact of China's commercial banks and looks forward to the new mechanism of interest rate operation after the reform. The full text is divided into five chapters. The main contents of each chapter are as follows:
The first chapter is the introduction. First, it discusses the background and significance of this topic, then systematically combs and reviews the relevant literature, and then introduces the research ideas and methods used in this paper, and finally puts forward the main innovation and shortcomings of the article.
The second chapter analyzes the necessity of the interest rate marketization. First, it expounds the connotation of interest rate and the connotation of the interest rate market. Then, this chapter analyses that the interest rate marketization is the need to adapt to the continuous development of the economic system from the practical point of view. It is the need to train the independent pricing ability of financial institutions, is to respect the rights of enterprises and residents and to promote financial suits. At the same time, on the basis of the financial constraint model, the Chinese interest rate marketization model is put forward on the basis of the financial constraint model and the characteristics of China's divided economy. The model shows that the new income capital ratio will be higher than that of the unified market after the market integration of the interest rate. Before the interest rate is marketed, the speed of economic development is promoted to a higher level, but the improvement of efficiency is not the inevitable result, which indicates the risk of interest rate marketization. Finally, it reviews the process of China's economic system reform and the process of interest rate marketization, and puts forward that the future China interest rate marketization needs to be faced and solved. Problem.
In the third chapter, the international comparative study is carried out. First, the background, motivation, process, characteristics and effects of interest rate market in the developed countries such as the United States, Japan and other developed countries, such as Russia, India and other emerging market countries are carefully studied. Then, the "five conditions" for the success of the interest rate market and the enlightenment to China are analyzed and summarized.
The fourth chapter further discusses the path selection of China's interest rate marketization. First, it points out that China's interest rate marketization should choose a gradual and double track system. Then, the connotation of the gradual and double track system is deeply analyzed, and the "four abilities" should be paid attention to in the process of interest rate marketization. Finally, in order to improve the process of interest rate marketization, the process of interest rate will be improved. In this chapter, we use fuzzy mathematics and expert scoring to set up an index system for the decision making process of interest rate marketization.
The fifth chapter analyzes the influence and coping strategies of interest rate marketization from the perspective of Chinese commercial banks. First, the influence is analyzed from the angle of interest gap narrowing, interest rate risk management, adverse selection and moral hazard, and the empirical test is carried out through the model of bank competition behavior and the actual number of Chinese deposits and loans. Secondly, the Chinese commercial silver is analyzed. The current situation of line pricing mechanism and the gap with the international advanced banks. Then, it is proposed that the complete liberalization of interest rate is not the end point of China's interest rate marketization. The establishment of the new interest rate operation mechanism is a stage end point. The new mechanism is based on the new capital agreement, the linkage of the domestic and foreign countries, the interest rate operation mechanism with the core of quality and benefit. In the mechanism, the bank is the center of operation. The bank will take the capital return rate after the risk adjusted as the main line, carry out the allocation of resources and build the business development strategy. Finally, it looks forward that the mechanism of interest rate marketization will be a process of continuous improvement in the face of changing regulatory environment. The level of self-discipline is based on capital intensive allocation and the allocation of resources is optimized.
Through the above research, this paper concludes that the reform of China's interest rate marketization is the only way of economic transformation, but the reform also contains great risks. The reform process should pay attention to the cultivation of "four abilities" (the management ability of the banks, the adaptability of the enterprises, the government's ability to adjust and control and the adaptability of the market), and to meet the "five conditions". (macro economic stability, sound financial supervision system, scientific bank management mechanism, perfect deposit insurance system, modern market economy system), and should establish the decision-making model of the interest rate market process to improve the scientific decision. The interest rate pricing ability of the Chinese commercial bank remains to be improved. After the interest rate marketization, China should A new control system based on the new capital agreement is set up to replace the administrative mode of interest rate control by a market-oriented capital control mode, and promote the bank to optimize the allocation of bank resources on the basis of the intensive allocation of capital.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.33;F822.0

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