本文選題：經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型 + 人民幣匯率　； 參考：《上海社會科學(xué)院》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：進(jìn)入新世紀(jì)以來,隨著以中國為代表的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體實(shí)現(xiàn)較快的出口增長和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,實(shí)際匯率的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長效應(yīng)研究在西方學(xué)術(shù)界開始升溫。大體來看,目前西方主流經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的代表性觀點(diǎn)是：實(shí)際匯率低估通常可以促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,高估則可能損害經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。實(shí)際匯率影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的渠道可能有資本積累渠道和全要素生產(chǎn)率增長渠道。保持匯率低估和穩(wěn)定的政策可能只是在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的啟動階段比較有效。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體很可能需要進(jìn)行匯率機(jī)制改革以退出原先的低估和盯住匯率政策。 總體來看,西方主流經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)是實(shí)際匯率的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長效應(yīng),專門針對實(shí)際匯率變動的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)的研究很少。一些研究即使有所涉及,大多也僅限于討論實(shí)際匯率“錯配”與出口導(dǎo)向型經(jīng)濟(jì)或“荷蘭病”的關(guān)系。 另一方面,長期在西方處于非主流地位的結(jié)構(gòu)主義經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)派對經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)問題(特別是發(fā)達(dá)資本主義國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)問題)一直比較關(guān)注。結(jié)構(gòu)主義學(xué)派長期關(guān)注收入分配與消費(fèi)、投資乃至整體經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系。不過總體來看,結(jié)構(gòu)主義學(xué)派的研究大多主要針對國內(nèi)問題,考慮到匯率因素的研究不多。 本文認(rèn)為實(shí)際匯率變動對一國的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整有著重要的影響,經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型通常需要對匯率水平進(jìn)行調(diào)整。本文嘗試構(gòu)建和運(yùn)用結(jié)構(gòu)主義宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)模型,從收入分配的視角研究實(shí)際匯率變動影響經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的內(nèi)在機(jī)制,并對人民幣實(shí)際匯率變動的收入分配效應(yīng)進(jìn)行計(jì)量檢驗(yàn)。然后從當(dāng)前我國經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的客觀要求出發(fā),探索深化人民幣匯率形成機(jī)制改革以促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的政策啟示。 在開放經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下,實(shí)際匯率變動具有重要的收入分配效應(yīng)。實(shí)際匯率變動通過影響要素收入分配(勞動收入占比與資本收入占比等)和部門收入分配(貿(mào)易品部門與非貿(mào)易品部門的利潤率等),進(jìn)而對貿(mào)易、消費(fèi)和投資乃至整體的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長產(chǎn)生重要影響。 實(shí)際匯率貶值往往有利于提高資本收入占比和貿(mào)易品部門的利潤率,從而有利于出口和投資擴(kuò)張,這有利于貿(mào)易品部門和工業(yè)部門的發(fā)展；相反,實(shí)際匯率適度升值通常有利于提高工資收入占比和非貿(mào)易品部門的利潤率,從而有利于擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需、發(fā)展服務(wù)業(yè)和促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級。 本文對人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率與中國的總儲蓄占比之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行時間序列分析,對理論模型的主要結(jié)論進(jìn)行計(jì)量檢驗(yàn)。實(shí)證研究的結(jié)果在很大程度上支持理論模型的結(jié)論。 本文進(jìn)一步針對實(shí)際匯率變動的收入分配效應(yīng)進(jìn)行中、日、德國際比較,重點(diǎn)比較二戰(zhàn)后日元與德國馬克實(shí)際匯率變動的不同趨勢及其對日本與德國儲蓄和經(jīng)濟(jì)的不同影響,嘗試得出對人民幣匯率形成機(jī)制改革和中國經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型具有參考和借鑒意義的經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)。 通過國際比較發(fā)現(xiàn),1980-2011年日元不僅在長期趨勢上大幅升值,而且在升值過程中伴隨著日元匯率的大幅震蕩,日本外向型企業(yè)的利潤因此受到很大的負(fù)面影響,日本國內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)大量轉(zhuǎn)移到國外,引發(fā)“去工業(yè)化”和日本經(jīng)濟(jì)“失去的十年”的現(xiàn)象。與日元相比,同期的德國馬克和韓元保持了實(shí)際匯率的基本穩(wěn)定,波動幅度較小,德國和韓國基本上沒有發(fā)生類似于日本的經(jīng)濟(jì)長期衰退的現(xiàn)象。 當(dāng)前我國正處在經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的關(guān)鍵階段,需要我們?nèi)嫔罨?jīng)濟(jì)體制改革。在收入分配上需要大力增加居民收入,不斷調(diào)整和改善收入分配結(jié)構(gòu)。在貿(mào)易收支上,近年來我國貿(mào)易收支的余額、結(jié)構(gòu)正在發(fā)生重要變化。產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整升級的任務(wù)依然艱巨。我國的勞動力、資源和環(huán)境等廣義生產(chǎn)要素市場都在發(fā)生新變化,未來我國廣義生產(chǎn)要素價格總體上將呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢。上述經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的任務(wù)對深化人民幣匯率形成機(jī)制改革提出了新的要求。 本文得出的當(dāng)前基于經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型要求的深化匯率形成機(jī)制改革的主要政策啟示是：第一,在保持人民幣名義匯率基本穩(wěn)定的情況下,根據(jù)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的實(shí)際狀況和轉(zhuǎn)型需要,人民幣實(shí)際匯率適時適度升值有利于促進(jìn)我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型(如擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整升級等)。第二,預(yù)防人民幣匯率過度升值引發(fā)“去工業(yè)化”的傾向,避免出現(xiàn)失業(yè)率上升或者泡沫經(jīng)濟(jì)。第三,統(tǒng)籌協(xié)調(diào)名義匯率、工資價格與勞動生產(chǎn)率的調(diào)整,充分發(fā)揮匯率對經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的積極作用。
[Abstract]:Since entering the new century, with the emerging economies to China as the representative to achieve rapid export growth and economic growth, the real exchange rate effects on economic growth in the western academic circles began to heat up. In general, the representative of western mainstream economics point of view is: the undervalued real exchange rate usually can promote economic growth, it may overestimate the economic damage the real exchange rate growth. Economic growth channels may have the capital accumulation channel and TFP growth channel. Keep an undervalued exchange rate and stable policy may be more effective in the starting stage of economic growth. With the development of economy, emerging economies may need to reform of the exchange rate mechanism to exit the original undervalued and the pegged exchange rate policy.
Overall, the focus of western mainstream economics is concerned with the economic growth effect of the real exchange rate, there are few studies on special economic structure effect of real exchange rate changes. Some research even involved, are mostly limited to discuss the relationship between the real exchange rate mismatch and export-oriented economy or "Dutch disease".
On the other hand, the long-term in the western economics structure in the economic structure of the non mainstream status (especially the economic structure of the developed capitalist countries) has been more attention. Structuralists focus and long-term consumption of income distribution, the relationship between economic growth and overall investment. But overall, most of the main research structuralism aiming at the problem, taking into account the study exchange rate factors.
This paper believes that the real exchange rate adjustment of the economic structure of a country has an important influence to economic transformation usually needs to adjust the exchange rate. This paper attempts to construct and apply structuralism macroeconomic model, from the perspective of income distribution on the impact of real exchange rate by the internal mechanism of the adjustment of economic structure, and econometric test on income distribution the effect of the real exchange rate of RMB. Then starting from the objective requirements of economic transformation in China at present, on deepening the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism to promote the policy implications of economic transformation.
Under the condition of open economy, real exchange rate has an important effect on income distribution. The real exchange rate by affecting the income distribution factors (labor income and capital income accounted for the proportion of income distribution (Department) and the tradable sector and non tradable sector profit rate), which have an important impact on trade, consumption and investment and overall economic growth.
A depreciation of the real exchange rate tends to help to improve the capital income ratio and trade department profit rate, which is conducive to the expansion of exports and investment, which is conducive to the development of trade and industry departments; on the contrary, a modest appreciation of the real exchange rate is conducive to raising the wage income and the proportion of non tradable goods sector's profit margins, which have to expand domestic demand, the development of the service industry and promote industrial upgrading.
This paper conducts a time series analysis of the relationship between the RMB real effective exchange rate and China's total savings ratio, and conducts a quantitative test on the main conclusions of the theoretical model. The results of empirical study support the conclusion of the theoretical model to a large extent.
This paper further studies the income distribution effect of real exchange rate movements in Japan, Germany, international comparison, focus on the comparison of different trends after World War II and the German Mark yen real exchange rate and its effects on Japan and German savings and economy, try to draw on the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform and China economic transformation has experience and reference meaning.
Through international comparison, the sharp appreciation of the yen 1980-2011 years not only in the long run, but also in the process of appreciation with the volatility in the yen exchange rate, Japan's export-oriented enterprises profits suffer great negative impact on the domestic industry, Japan is transferred to a large number of foreign countries, lead to industrialization "and Japan's" lost ten years "the phenomenon of yen over the same period. And compared to the German Mark and won to maintain the basic stability of the real exchange rate, little fluctuation, Germany and South Korea basically no long-term decline similar to the Japanese economy.
At present our country is in the key stage of economic transformation, we need to deepen the reform of economic system. In the distribution of income needs to increase income, to constantly adjust and improve the structure of income distribution. On the trade balance, the balance of trade balance in China in recent years, the structure is in great changes. The industrial structure adjustment and upgrade task is still arduous. China's labor, resources and environment generalized production factors market new changes are taking place in China, the future general generalized factor prices showed a rising trend. The economic transformation task for deepening the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform puts forward new requirements.
This paper draws the main policy implications of deepening the reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism of the economic transformation based on requirements: first, to maintain the RMB nominal exchange rate basically stable, according to the needs of the economic development of our country's actual situation and transformation, the real exchange rate of RMB appreciation is conducive to timely and appropriate to promote China's economic transformation (such as the expansion of domestic demand the adjustment of industrial structure upgrade). Second, to prevent excessive appreciation of RMB exchange rate caused the tendency of "de industrialization", to avoid rising unemployment or bubble economy. Third, the exchange rate of nominal wage and price co-ordination, the adjustment of labor productivity, give full play to the positive role of the exchange rate adjustment of economic structure.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海社會科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.6

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