本文選題：房地產價格 + 貨幣政策�。� 參考：《首都經(jīng)濟貿易大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：自1998年住房分配體制改革以來，中國城鎮(zhèn)居民的住房供給體系從實物分配制走向貨幣化分配，標志著中國的房地產行業(yè)開始朝著市場化的方向邁進。在住房分配體制轉變的同時，中國的城市化進程也在不斷加速，大批的農村人口向城市轉移，，另外居民收入提高，改善性需求也在不斷增長，這兩類歷史趨勢構成了房地產剛性需求增長的巨大動力，同時也促進了中國房地產市場的發(fā)展，房地產行業(yè)已經(jīng)在整個國民經(jīng)濟中扮演著不可或缺的重要角色，從微觀角度來說，住房已經(jīng)成為最重要的居民財富。因此房地產價格的波動已經(jīng)不單純的是一個社會問題，更是一個政治問題，房地產市場的穩(wěn)定不僅關系到整個經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)的穩(wěn)定，更關系整個社會的安定和諧。 然而另一方面，持續(xù)的房地產市場價格單向拉升也催生了大量的投資性需求和投機性需求，房地產作為資產的屬性越來越突出。那么這種資產（房地產）價格與貨幣政策之間是否存在聯(lián)系，即房地產價格的波動是否在一定程度上影響貨幣的供求，貨幣政策是否在一定程度上左右房地產市場價格的波動，如果存在，貨幣政策如何兼顧房地產價格波動對貨幣政策的影響，本文主要就這些問題展開討論。 中國的房地產行業(yè)與銀行信貸存在著千絲萬縷的聯(lián)系，房地產價格的變化將對貨幣需求和貨幣供給產生直接的影響，我們從內生貨幣理論出發(fā)，探討了房地產價格對貨幣供求的影響。并探討了這種理論的前提條件——即房地產市場是否需要大量的銀行信貸；與房產相關的銀行信貸在整個銀行信貸中是否居于重要的地位，即房地產相關信貸占整個信貸規(guī)模是否足夠顯著。在此基礎上我們對我們的理論分析進行了格朗杰因果檢驗以支持我們前面的論述。隨后，我們繼續(xù)分析了貨幣政策對房地產價格的影響，討論了貨幣政策對房地產供求的影響路徑，而貨幣政策對房價的影響主要由兩種途徑：一是貨幣供應總量政策，在中國的體現(xiàn)主要是信貸政策對房地產價格的影響；另一個是利率政策對房地產價格的影響。在分析信貸政策對于房地產價格的影響時，主要是從信貸政策對于商業(yè)銀行、消費者、企業(yè)等市場參與者的決策影響，進而波及房地產的供求，最終使得信貸政策的變化體現(xiàn)在房地產價格的變化上。在分析利率政策對于房地產價格的影響時，區(qū)分了廣義利率傳導機制和狹義利率傳導機制，狹義利率傳導機制又將其分為封閉經(jīng)濟和開發(fā)經(jīng)濟兩種情況，廣義利率機制主要分析了財富效應和托賓q效應的傳導機制。最后總結，信貸政策和利率政策都能對我國的房地產市場進行有效的影響，但信貸政策影響效果更為明顯。我們還對美國次貸危機和日本“失去的十年”房地產價格和貨幣政策之間的聯(lián)系進行了回顧和分析，并從這些國際經(jīng)驗中得出自己的結論。最后，根據(jù)以上的分析，我們提出了在貨幣政策框架中加入房地產價格因素，并對于貨幣政策的改善提出了一些自己的建議。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of housing distribution system in 1998, the housing supply system of urban residents to China from physical distribution system of monetary distribution, marking the China of the real estate industry began to move in the direction of the market. In the transformation of the housing distribution system at the same time, the city China process is speeding up, a large number of rural population to the city also transfer, raise incomes, improve the increase in demand, the two kinds of historical trends pose a great power of the real estate rigid demand growth, but also to promote the development of China real estate market, the real estate industry has been in the national economy plays an important role, from the microscopic point of view. The housing has become the most important wealth. So the fluctuations of real estate price has not only is a social problem, but also a political issue, the real estate market Stability is not only related to the stability of the whole economic system, but also to the stability and harmony of the whole society.
On the other hand, the real estate market prices continued to move up the one-way also spawned a large number of investment demand and speculative demand, real estate property assets as more and more outstanding. So this kind of assets (real estate) there is a connection between price and monetary policy, the real estate price fluctuations will affect the demand for and supply of money in extent, whether the monetary policy is about the real estate market prices to a certain extent, the fluctuation of monetary policy if there is, how to balance the effect of real estate price fluctuation on monetary policy, in this paper, these problems are discussed.
China of the real estate industry and bank credit are inextricably linked, the changes in real estate prices will have a direct impact on the money demand and supply, we from the endogenous money theory, discusses the impact of real estate prices on money supply and demand. And discusses whether the needs of a large number of bank credit conditions this kind of theory the real estate market; and real estate related bank credit occupies an important position in the whole bank credit, the credit related real estate accounted for the entire credit scale is significant enough. Based on our theoretical analysis of Gelangjie causality test to support our previous discussion. Then, we continue to analyze the the impact of monetary policy on real estate prices, discussed the path of monetary policy on the real estate supply and demand, and the impact of monetary policy on house prices mainly by Two ways: one is the total money supply policy, reflected in the China is mainly the impact of the credit policy on the real estate price; another is the effect of interest rate policy on real estate prices. In the analysis of the credit policy for the real estate prices, mainly from the consumer credit policy for commercial banks, and decision making influence of enterprises and other market participants, then affects the supply and demand of real estate, eventually making changes in credit policy reflected in the changes in real estate prices. In the analysis of interest rate policy on the impact of real estate prices, the distinction between the generalized transmission mechanism of interest rate and narrow interest rate conduction mechanism, narrow the interest rate transmission mechanism can be divided into closed economy the development of economy and the two case, the generalized interest rate mechanism mainly analyzes the transmission mechanism of the wealth effect and the Tobin q effect. Finally, the credit policy and interest rate policy to China's real The real estate market effectively, but the effect is more obvious. The credit policy of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis between us and Japan "lost ten years" real estate prices and monetary policy relation were reviewed and analyzed, and from these international experiences to draw their own conclusions. Finally, according to the above analysis. We propose to join the real estate price factors in the framework of monetary policy, and monetary policy for the improvement of puts forward some suggestions.

【學位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟貿易大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F822.0;F299.23

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