本文選題：通貨膨脹 + 財政政策��； 參考：《南開大學》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：本文所研究的問題是中國的通貨膨脹與財政政策關系,并進一步將其分成兩個層次：首先,中國的通貨膨脹與財政政策特別是政府投資與消費之間是否存在內在的必然聯(lián)系,本文試圖通過對于這個問題的回答提供一個分析中國通貨膨脹問題的新的維度。其次,如果財政政策確實是形成中國通脹的一個原因,那么財政政策是通過什么機制或路徑影響通貨膨脹的,這點主要涉及我國現(xiàn)行的財政政策工具及其發(fā)揮作用所依賴的經濟的內在特征等問題。 本文采用動態(tài)隨機一般均衡模型(DSGE)來研究基于財政視角的中國通貨膨脹問題。DSGE是基于發(fā)達國家的經濟現(xiàn)實發(fā)展出來并帶有發(fā)達國家經濟的某些特征,嘗試利用這一架構分析中國經濟現(xiàn)實時不可避免的會產生各種問題,然而這些問題所折射出的正是中國經濟與發(fā)達經濟之間的某些差異及其所產生的影響,所以采用DSGE架構能更好地認識中國經濟的問題,并通過逐步地發(fā)展和改進現(xiàn)有分析架構來服務于中國經濟。 本文在梳理學術界關于財政政策與通貨膨脹關系的研究基礎上,在立足當下的同時上溯至1994年以來我國財政政策操作和通貨膨脹的發(fā)展,通過實證的方法揭示兩者的內在聯(lián)系,最后結合中國經濟特征構建了一個分析財政政策和通貨膨脹的DSGE模型,并通過定量分析得到相關結論：第一,我國的通貨膨脹無論是波動的周期長度還是運行軌跡幾乎與經濟波動的相關特征具有高度的一致性,通貨膨脹都具有很強的順周期性而且是經濟周期的滯后指標。第二,中國的政府投資性支出占GDP的比重相較于主要發(fā)達國家是比較高的,結合投資對我國經濟增長的拉動作用,政府投資無疑是驅動中國經濟增長的重要因素之一。第三,基于財政基本盈余測算的我國財政政策態(tài)勢表明我國的財政政策具有逆風向而動的操作特征,這一特征與自1994年以來持續(xù)的財政基本盈余為負聯(lián)系在一起的,而這種負的財政基本盈余的持續(xù)性也不容忽視。第四,運用模型的定量研究表明,我國政府投資性支出和消費性支出在推動經濟擴張的同時對通貨膨脹的發(fā)展有一定的推動作用,而且政府投資性支出相較于消費性支出而言無論是在促進經濟增長方面還是推動通貨膨脹方面的效能更強；政府支出對私人投資和消費的影響分布是不平衡的,主要體現(xiàn)在對“遵循拇指規(guī)則”家庭的消費擠出,而對于“李嘉圖型家庭”卻沒有擠出效應；同時兩類政府支出對于私人投資而言沒有擠出效應；同時在政府支出沖擊發(fā)生后,雖然總的消費水平在上升,但是私人消費占GDP的比重卻是經歷了首先向下偏離穩(wěn)態(tài)然后逐步向穩(wěn)態(tài)恢復的過程,這一響應模式表明在持續(xù)的政府支出沖擊下,私人消費支出占比最終會下降的結果,這與我國在2000年后消費支出占比的持續(xù)下降是一致的。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the relationship between inflation and fiscal policy in China, and further divides it into two levels: first, whether there is an inherent relationship between inflation and fiscal policy, especially between government investment and consumption.This paper attempts to provide a new dimension for the analysis of China's inflation problem through the answer to this question.Secondly, if fiscal policy is indeed a cause of inflation in China, then what mechanism or path does fiscal policy use to influence inflation?This point mainly involves the current fiscal policy tools and the internal characteristics of the economy on which it plays a role.In this paper, the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) is used to study the inflation problem in China from the perspective of finance. DSGE is based on the economic reality of developed countries and has some characteristics of developed countries' economies.When trying to use this framework to analyze the reality of China's economy, it is inevitable that problems will arise. However, these problems reflect precisely some differences between China's economy and developed economies and their impact.Therefore, using DSGE framework can better understand the problems of China's economy, and gradually develop and improve the existing analytical framework to serve the Chinese economy.On the basis of combing the academic research on the relationship between fiscal policy and inflation, this paper goes back to the development of fiscal policy operation and inflation since 1994, and reveals the internal relationship between them by empirical method.Finally, this paper constructs a DSGE model to analyze fiscal policy and inflation according to the characteristics of Chinese economy, and obtains the relevant conclusions by quantitative analysis: first,The inflation of our country is almost consistent with the relative characteristics of economic fluctuation whether it is the cycle length or the track of fluctuation. Inflation has a strong procyclicality and is a lagging indicator of the economic cycle.Second, the proportion of China's government investment expenditure in GDP is higher than that of the major developed countries, and government investment is undoubtedly one of the important factors that drive China's economic growth in combination with the pull effect of investment on China's economic growth.Thirdly, China's fiscal policy situation based on the calculation of the basic fiscal surplus indicates that the fiscal policy of our country has the characteristics of operating against the wind, which is related negatively to the sustained basic fiscal surplus since 1994.And the sustainability of this negative primary surplus cannot be ignored.Fourth, the quantitative study of the model shows that the government investment expenditure and consumption expenditure can promote the development of inflation while promoting economic expansion.Moreover, government investment spending is more effective than consumer spending in terms of promoting economic growth or promoting inflation; the distribution of the impact of government spending on private investment and consumption is uneven.This is mainly reflected in the consumption crowding out of households "following the rule of the thumb", but not in the case of "Ricardo families"; at the same time, the two types of government expenditure have no crowding out effect on private investment, and after the impact of government expenditure,Although the total consumption level is rising, the ratio of private consumption to GDP is going through the process of first deviating from the steady state and then gradually recovering to the steady state. This response pattern shows that under the impact of the sustained government expenditure,The proportion of private consumption expenditure will eventually decline, which is consistent with the continued decline in the proportion of consumption expenditure after 2000 in China.
【學位授予單位】：南開大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F812;F822.5

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本文編號：1761467