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  本文選題：人民幣均衡匯率　切入點(diǎn)：貿(mào)易收支　出處：《寧波大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：人民幣均衡匯率與貿(mào)易收支調(diào)整關(guān)系是具有重要理論意義和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義的問題。本論文從理論和實(shí)證對這個問題進(jìn)行了研究。 本論文在理論上推導(dǎo)了人民幣均衡匯率的理論模型，并且提出了人民幣均衡匯率與貿(mào)易收支調(diào)整的彈性理論，即均衡匯率的馬歇爾—勒納條件。實(shí)證上在人民幣均衡匯率的理論模型基礎(chǔ)上，選取變量進(jìn)行協(xié)整研究并建立誤差修正模型(ECM)，測算人民幣均衡匯率，以及失衡程度。本文采用1985—2011年中國相關(guān)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，通過ADF單位根檢驗(yàn)和擴(kuò)展的Engle-Granger兩步法，最終選擇了政府支出占GDP比例、貿(mào)易開放度、貿(mào)易條件、稅收余額、出口退稅5個經(jīng)濟(jì)變量。測算結(jié)果顯示人民幣匯率存在不同程度的失調(diào)，1985—1998年匯率波動比較劇烈，失調(diào)嚴(yán)重，1999-2011年匯率波動的幅度和頻率均有所下降，匯率比較接近均衡匯率水平。誤差修正模型結(jié)果顯示名義匯率在偏離均衡匯率后能夠自動向著均衡匯率的方向恢復(fù)，變量之間的均衡是穩(wěn)定的，，選取的經(jīng)濟(jì)變量在長期和短期對人民幣均衡匯率的影響方向是一致的，且影響較為明顯。進(jìn)一步從馬歇爾—勒納條件入手，放松初始貿(mào)易收支平衡的假設(shè)，修正彈性條件，提出了人民幣均衡匯率與貿(mào)易收支調(diào)整的彈性理論，其實(shí)證結(jié)果很好地解釋了人民幣均衡匯率變動與貿(mào)易收支調(diào)整的關(guān)系。再進(jìn)一步建立人民幣均衡匯率與貿(mào)易收支不平衡程度之間的VAR模型，量化了人民幣均衡匯率變動對貿(mào)易不平衡的程度的影響。本論文的結(jié)論表明，人民幣均衡匯率對貿(mào)易收支的調(diào)節(jié)作用與初始的貿(mào)易收支、進(jìn)出口需求價格彈性有關(guān)系。并相應(yīng)提出了人民幣均衡匯率與貿(mào)易收支調(diào)整的政策建議。
[Abstract]:The relationship between RMB equilibrium exchange rate and trade balance adjustment is of great theoretical and practical significance.This paper studies this problem theoretically and empirically.This paper theoretically deduces the theoretical model of RMB equilibrium exchange rate, and puts forward the elasticity theory of RMB equilibrium exchange rate and trade balance adjustment, that is, the Marshall-Lerner condition of equilibrium exchange rate.On the basis of theoretical model of RMB equilibrium exchange rate, this paper selects variables to study cointegration and establishes error correction model to calculate RMB equilibrium exchange rate and the degree of imbalance.This paper adopts the relevant macroeconomic data of China from 1985 to 2011, through the ADF unit root test and the extended Engle-Granger two-step method, finally selects the ratio of government expenditure to GDP, trade openness, terms of trade, tax balance, etc.Export tax rebate 5 economic variables.The results show that the RMB exchange rate has different degrees of misalignment. The exchange rate fluctuated sharply from 1985 to 1998, and the amplitude and frequency of the exchange rate fluctuations decreased from 1999 to 2011, and the exchange rate was close to the equilibrium exchange rate level.The result of error correction model shows that the nominal exchange rate can automatically recover to the equilibrium exchange rate after deviating from the equilibrium exchange rate, and the equilibrium between variables is stable.The influence of the selected economic variables on the RMB equilibrium exchange rate is consistent in the long term and in the short term, and the influence is obvious.Starting with the Marshall-Lerner condition, the assumption of initial trade balance is relaxed, the elastic condition is revised, and the elasticity theory of RMB equilibrium exchange rate and trade balance adjustment is put forward.In fact, the empirical results explain the relationship between the RMB equilibrium exchange rate and the adjustment of trade balance.Furthermore, the VAR model between the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB and the degree of trade imbalance is established to quantify the influence of the change of RMB equilibrium exchange rate on the degree of trade imbalance.The conclusion of this paper shows that the adjustment effect of RMB equilibrium exchange rate on trade balance is related to the initial trade balance and the price elasticity of import and export demand.And put forward the policy suggestion of RMB equilibrium exchange rate and trade balance adjustment accordingly.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：寧波大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.6;F752.6

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