本文選題：收入　切入點：儲蓄　出處：《河北經貿大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來，我國長期依靠投資和出口保持經濟的快速持續(xù)增長，作為拉動經濟增長的三駕馬車之一消費其貢獻率較低。近幾年來，我國消費率持續(xù)走低，不僅低于世界平均水平，也低于低收入國家的平均水平。我國消費率低的情況已引起了中央政府的足夠重視。溫家寶總理在2009年政府工作報告中指出，積極擴大國內需求特別是消費需求，增強內需對經濟增長的拉動作用，擴大內需尤其是居民消費。而農村居民消費不足是造成我國當前有效消費不足的重要因素之一。我國作為一個發(fā)展中國家，農村市場是最大和最基礎的市場，其消費潛力巨大。在目前城鎮(zhèn)居民消費相對飽和，，消費市場缺乏新熱點的情況下，如何提高農村居民消費、啟動農村消費市場，就顯得極為重要。 本文將以河北省農村居民的消費作為研究對象，運用消費經濟學理論，利用定性和定量分析方法，對河北省農村居民的消費水平及消費結構及其影響因素進行分析，以期為啟動河北省農村消費市場提供相應的理論和政策依據。 本文由以下四部分構成：第一部分包括論文的第一章，介紹論文的研究背景和意義，綜述國內外研究成果，提出研究方法和技術路線及研究的創(chuàng)新點與不足。第二部分包括論文的第二章和第三章，第二章首先介紹了有關居民消費的相關理論。第三章總體介紹河北省農村居民消費現狀，從消費水平和消費結構兩個角度來分析。第三部分包括第四章和第五章，是本文的核心部分。第四章通過建立消費函數模型，分析河北省農村居民消費影響因素，通過對數據進行分析，得出影響河北省農村居民消費的主要影響因素。第五章在第四章分析的基礎之上，分別對三個主要影響因素進行實證分析。第四部分包括第六章，總結歸納前面各章的結論，在結論的基礎之上，就如何提高農村居民的收入、完善農村社會保障體制、加快城鎮(zhèn)化進程等方面提出了若干啟動農村消費市場的建議。 由當前河北省農村居民的實際消費狀況，我們可以得知河北省農村居民消費現狀不盡理想。隨著農村居民人均可支配收入的增加，河北省的消費狀況得到顯著的改觀，然而邊際消費傾向卻呈現不斷下降的趨勢。在影響河北省農村居民消費的諸多的因素中，收入、儲蓄和城鎮(zhèn)化三個因素對河北省農村居民消費具有明顯的影響作用。其中收入是影響居民消費的基本因素。河北省農村居民的消費支出對現期收入的變化的較為敏感；河北省農村居民消費由收入中的持久收入部分決定；農村居民過去消費對當前消費的影響較為強烈。1978年以來，河北省農村居民的人均收入水平不斷的得到提高，收入差距擴大趨勢明顯，這必然會對居民消費的快速增長產生消極的影響。另一方面由于不確定性的存在，致使河北省農村居民預防性儲蓄動機較為強烈，居民的儲蓄不再是消費后的剩余，而是一種有意識的主動的儲蓄行為的結果，這一定程度上也影響了河北省居民消費的擴大。近年來，城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展迅猛，但城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展對農村居民消費的影響存在時滯，就影響了農村居民消費的擴張。 為了提高河北省農村居民的消費水平，為河北省經濟進一步發(fā)展創(chuàng)造供需基本平衡的條件，提出理論性建議：增加農村居民收入，調整收入分配關系；完善農村社會保障體系，提高農村居民消費預期；實行城鄉(xiāng)一體化發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略，加快城鎮(zhèn)化進程。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's long-term dependence on investment and exports to maintain rapid economic growth, as one of the three carriages to promote economic growth in the consumption contribution rate is relatively low. In recent years, China's consumption rate continued to decline, not only lower than the world average level, also lower than the average level of low-income countries in China. The low rate of consumption situation has attracted enough attention from the central government. Premier Wen Jiabao in 2009 government work report pointed out, actively expand domestic demand especially consumer demand, boosting domestic demand to stimulate economic growth, expanding domestic demand, especially the consumption of residents. The inadequate consumption of the rural residents is one of the important factors causing the current effective the lack of consumption. As a developing country, the rural market is the largest and the most basic market and huge consumption potential. In the current consumption of urban residents is relatively saturated, the consumption of the city In the absence of new hot spots, how to improve the consumption of rural residents and start the rural consumer market is very important.
This paper will take the rural consumption in Hebei Province as the research object, using the theory of consumption economics, using qualitative and quantitative analysis method, the factors of rural residents in Hebei province's consumption level and consumption structure and its influence are analyzed, in order to provide a theoretical basis for the corresponding policy and start the rural consumption in Hebei province.
This paper consists of four parts: the first part includes the first chapter introduces the research background and significance, summarizes the domestic and foreign researches, puts forward the research method and technology route and research innovations and shortcomings. The second part includes the second chapter and the third chapter, the second chapter introduces the related theory of consumption the third chapter introduces the status quo of the overall consumption of rural residents in Hebei Province, analyzes from two aspects of consumption level and consumption structure. The third part includes the fourth chapter and the fifth chapter is the core part of this paper. The fourth chapter establishes the consumption function model, analysis of the factors affecting the consumption of rural residents in Hebei Province, through analyzing the data. It is concluded that the main influencing factors of consumption of rural residents in Hebei province. Based on the analysis of the fifth chapter in the fourth chapter, the three main factors for the empirical analysis. The fourth part includes the sixth chapter, summarizes the conclusions of the preceding chapters, and based on the conclusion, puts forward some suggestions on how to improve the rural residents' income, improve the rural social security system and speed up the process of urbanization.
From the current rural residents in Hebei province actual consumption situation, we can know the status of consumption of rural residents in Hebei province is not ideal. With the per capita disposable income of rural residents increased, the consumption of Hebei province situation has improved significantly, but the marginal propensity to consume is continuously decreased. Many factors affect income in rural consumption residents in Hebei Province, urbanization, savings and three factors have obvious effect on consumption of rural residents in Hebei province. The income is the basic factor affecting consumer. Was more sensitive to the change of rural residents in Hebei Province consumption expenditure to income; consumption of rural residents in Hebei province is determined by permanent income income the consumption of rural residents; the past affect the current consumption of more intense.1978 years, the per capita income of rural residents in Hebei province has obtained To improve, the trend of widening income gap significantly, which will have a negative impact on the rapid growth of the consumer. On the other hand, because of the uncertainty, resulting in rural residents in Hebei Province, the precautionary motive is more intense, the citizenssavings is no longer consumption surplus, but a conscious active saving behavior the results, which to some extent also affected the expansion of consumption of residents in Hebei province. In recent years, the rapid development of urbanization, but the urbanization effect on consumption of rural residents is delayed, will affect the rural residents' consumption expansion.
In order to improve the level of consumption of rural residents in Hebei Province, to create the basic balance between supply and demand conditions for further economic development in Hebei Province, put forward suggestions: increase the income of rural residents, adjust the income distribution relations; improve the rural social security system, improve the rural residents' consumption expectations; implement the strategy of integration of urban and rural development, accelerate the process of urbanization.

【學位授予單位】：河北經貿大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F323.8;F299.2;F832.22;F224

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