本文選題：港幣　切入點(diǎn)：聯(lián)系匯率制度　出處：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：香港是當(dāng)前世界上成功實(shí)施聯(lián)系匯率制度的典型國(guó)家之一。相對(duì)于其他采用聯(lián)系匯率制度的國(guó)家,聯(lián)系匯率制度不僅在香港具有更長(zhǎng)的實(shí)施歷史,并且從經(jīng)濟(jì)促進(jìn)和危機(jī)防御的角度,聯(lián)系匯率制度在香港的實(shí)施也取得了更加穩(wěn)定和顯著的效果。 本文從聯(lián)系匯率制度下香港經(jīng)濟(jì)的特殊性出發(fā),通過統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的處理和展現(xiàn),分析聯(lián)系匯率制度對(duì)于香港經(jīng)濟(jì)促進(jìn)作用。同時(shí)本文也關(guān)注聯(lián)系匯率制度本身的局限性。在分析聯(lián)系匯率制度的局限性時(shí),本文結(jié)合香港經(jīng)濟(jì)的特殊性,尤其是香港一般商品價(jià)格和房產(chǎn)價(jià)格易受到兩種不同外部因素影響的性質(zhì),提出聯(lián)系匯率制度下的“港幣悖論”。本文一方面通過相關(guān)性分析,來探索這兩種不同因素對(duì)于香港價(jià)格的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制,另一方面剖析港幣悖論產(chǎn)生的條件和影響機(jī)制,以一個(gè)較為新穎的分析框架闡述香港聯(lián)系匯率制度在特定經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境下的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 聯(lián)系匯率制度可以促進(jìn)香港的貿(mào)易和資本流動(dòng),增進(jìn)香港的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型,改善市場(chǎng)的自由化和透明性,以及增加政府的政策信用度。然而聯(lián)系匯率制度也是把雙刃劍,在其各種優(yōu)點(diǎn)的背后也不斷突顯出一些問題,如貨幣政策僵化、物價(jià)高企和外債規(guī)模擴(kuò)大等等。 當(dāng)然,聯(lián)系匯率制度的局限性不止這些。盡管香港的政治地位、經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模和綜合實(shí)力較低,然而其經(jīng)濟(jì)金融開放程度非常大,并且香港擁有國(guó)際金融中心的地位,使得香港不再是傳統(tǒng)意義上的小國(guó)。另外,香港和中國(guó)內(nèi)地之間緊密的貿(mào)易聯(lián)系使得香港對(duì)美國(guó)的依附性并不如傳統(tǒng)意義上的那么高。這些特點(diǎn)增加了香港經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)雜性以及政策目標(biāo)選擇的多重性。本文認(rèn)為香港經(jīng)濟(jì)的特殊性和復(fù)雜性可能在一定條件下造成聯(lián)系匯率制度的崩潰。 從港幣悖論的分析角度來看,當(dāng)前香港匯率制度的一些替代方案都有一定的問題。未來如果人民幣實(shí)現(xiàn)自由兌換,并在國(guó)際貨幣體系中占據(jù)一定地位,港幣和人民幣掛鉤是非常理想的。但是在此之前的過渡階段,本文提出采用以50%的權(quán)重分別釘住人民幣和美元的固定匯率制度,作為一種可行的替代方案。
[Abstract]:Hong Kong is one of the most successful countries in the world to successfully implement the linked exchange rate system. Compared with other countries adopting the linked exchange rate system, the linked exchange rate system not only has a longer history of implementation in Hong Kong, From the point of view of economic promotion and crisis prevention, the linked exchange rate system has achieved a more stable and remarkable effect in Hong Kong. Starting from the particularity of Hong Kong's economy under the linked exchange rate system, this paper deals with and demonstrates the statistical data. This paper analyzes the role of the linked exchange rate system in promoting Hong Kong's economy. At the same time, this paper also pays attention to the limitations of the linked exchange rate system itself. When analyzing the limitations of the linked exchange rate system, this paper combines the particularity of Hong Kong's economy. In particular, Hong Kong's general commodity prices and property prices are easily affected by two different external factors. This paper puts forward the "Hong Kong dollar paradox" under the linked exchange rate system. To explore the transmission mechanism of these two different factors to Hong Kong price, on the other hand, to analyze the conditions and influence mechanism of the Hong Kong dollar paradox, and to expound the risk of Hong Kong linked exchange rate system under the specific economic environment with a relatively new analytical framework. The linked exchange rate system can facilitate Hong Kong's trade and capital flows, enhance Hong Kong's industrial restructuring, improve market liberalization and transparency, and increase the credibility of government policies. However, the linked exchange rate system is also a double-edged sword. Behind its many advantages are problems such as rigid monetary policy, high prices and the expansion of foreign debt. Of course, the limitations of the linked exchange rate system go beyond this. Although Hong Kong's political status, economic scale and overall strength are relatively low, its economic and financial openness is very large, and Hong Kong has the status of an international financial center. Make Hong Kong no longer a small country in the traditional sense. The close trade ties between Hong Kong and the mainland of China make Hong Kong less dependent on the United States than in the traditional sense. These characteristics increase the complexity of Hong Kong's economy and the multiplicity of policy objectives. It is believed that the particularity and complexity of Hong Kong's economy may lead to the collapse of the linked exchange rate system under certain conditions. From the perspective of the paradox of the Hong Kong dollar, there are certain problems with some alternatives to the current Hong Kong exchange rate regime. In the future, if the RMB is freely convertible and occupies a certain position in the international monetary system, It is ideal to peg the Hong Kong dollar to the RMB, but in the interim period, this paper proposes to use the fixed exchange rate system with a weight of 50% to peg the RMB and the US dollar, respectively, as a feasible alternative.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

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本文編號(hào)：1618578