本文選題：貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)　切入點(diǎn)：匯率　出處：《華僑大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近年來隨著中國對外貿(mào)易的迅速發(fā)展，相對于對外貿(mào)易的“量”來講，對外貿(mào)易的“質(zhì)”，即貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)受到越來越多的關(guān)注。初級產(chǎn)品的貿(mào)易額占總貿(mào)易額的比重逐年下降，工業(yè)制成品的比重持續(xù)上升，貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)不斷優(yōu)化。特別是2005年匯率改革之后，以及西方國家的壓力下，人民幣升值，受此影響，中國的貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生著深刻的變化。與此同時(shí)，流入中國的FDI也連年上升，其流向的產(chǎn)業(yè)對中國的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)從而對貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)也產(chǎn)生了深遠(yuǎn)的影響。 良好的貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)健康發(fā)展的作用是巨大的，然而影響一國貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)因素是十分復(fù)雜的。在理論研究中，人民幣匯率、FDI和貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)是經(jīng)濟(jì)研究領(lǐng)域內(nèi)的熱點(diǎn)問題，本文創(chuàng)造性地將三者結(jié)合起來，對商品按SITC產(chǎn)業(yè)分類，利用1981-2011年間的人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率、FDI、貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的數(shù)據(jù)，通過運(yùn)用單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、誤差修正模型對它們之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了深入的探討，結(jié)果顯示：在短期內(nèi)，人民幣升值和FDI流入量的增長對中國貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的作用是負(fù)面的；而從長期來看人民幣升值導(dǎo)致工業(yè)制成品出口占總出口的比值降低，而技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)品出口占工業(yè)制成品的比重上升，并且人民幣升值使技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)品占工業(yè)制成品的比值上升的幅度大于工業(yè)制成品占總出口的減少幅度，所以人民幣升值能改善貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)。FDI對貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的影響和匯率正好相反，F(xiàn)DI的增長能提高工業(yè)制成品出口的比重，但引起技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)品出口占工業(yè)制成品出口比重的下降，因?yàn)橐氲腇DI技術(shù)含量不高，，大部分流入到工業(yè)制成品領(lǐng)域中的勞動(dòng)密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)，所以FDI對貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的作用更依賴于政策的引導(dǎo)。 本文對人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率、FDI和貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了規(guī)范分析和實(shí)證分析，并根據(jù)得出的結(jié)論給出了幾點(diǎn)政策建議，為中國匯率政策、招商引資政策和貿(mào)易政策提供了借簽意義。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's foreign trade in recent years, relative to the "quantity" of foreign trade, the "quality" of foreign trade, that is, the structure of trade, has received more and more attention. The proportion of manufactured goods continues to rise and the trade structure is constantly optimized. Especially after the exchange rate reform in 2005, and under the pressure of the western countries, China's trade structure has undergone profound changes. The inflow of FDI into China has also increased year after year, and the industry flowing into China has had a profound impact on the structure of China's industry and thus on the structure of trade. A good trade structure plays a great role in the healthy development of China's economy, but the factors that affect a country's trade structure are very complicated. In the theoretical research, RMB exchange rate FDI and trade structure are hot issues in the field of economic research. This paper creatively combines the three, classifies the goods according to the SITC industry, using the data of the real effective exchange rate of RMB from 1981 to 2011, using the data of the trade structure, using the unit root test and cointegration test. The error correction model deeply discusses the relationship between them. The results show that the appreciation of RMB and the increase of FDI inflow have negative effects on China's trade structure in the short term; In the long run, the appreciation of the RMB has led to a decrease in the ratio of manufactured goods exports to total exports, while the share of technology-intensive products in industrial manufactured goods has increased. Moreover, the appreciation of the RMB has increased the ratio of technology-intensive products to manufactured goods by a larger margin than the ratio of manufactured products to total exports. Therefore, RMB appreciation can improve the trade structure. The impact of FDI on the trade structure and the exchange rate. On the contrary, the growth of FDI can increase the proportion of manufactured goods exports, but it leads to a decrease in the share of technology-intensive products exports in industrial manufactured exports. Because the introduction of FDI technology content is not high, most of the labor-intensive industries in the field of manufactured goods, so the role of FDI on the trade structure is more dependent on policy guidance. This paper makes a normative analysis and empirical analysis on the relationship between FDI and trade structure of RMB real effective exchange rate, and gives some policy suggestions on the basis of the conclusions, which are China's exchange rate policy. The investment policy and trade policy provide the meaning of borrowing and signing.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華僑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F752;F832.6

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 許和連,賴明勇;人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率與中國工業(yè)制成品對外貿(mào)易平衡的長期關(guān)系分析[J];商業(yè)研究;2002年08期

2 楊汝岱;朱詩娥;;中國對外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與競爭力研究：1978—2006[J];財(cái)貿(mào)經(jīng)濟(jì);2008年02期

3 張杰;劉志彪;季新野;;轉(zhuǎn)型背景下中國本土企業(yè)的出口與創(chuàng)新——基于江蘇地區(qū)制造業(yè)企業(yè)的實(shí)證研究[J];財(cái)貿(mào)經(jīng)濟(jì);2008年06期

4 施炳展;李坤望;;中國貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)在改善嗎?——基于產(chǎn)品周期理論的分析[J];財(cái)貿(mào)經(jīng)濟(jì);2009年02期

5 沈國兵;美中貿(mào)易收支與人民幣匯率關(guān)系:實(shí)證分析[J];當(dāng)代財(cái)經(jīng);2005年01期

6 馬君潞;王博;楊新銘;;人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對我國出口貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的影響研究——基于SITC標(biāo)準(zhǔn)產(chǎn)業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)證分析[J];國際金融研究;2010年12期

7 李未無;;實(shí)際匯率與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長:來自中國的證據(jù)[J];管理世界;2005年02期

8 楊全發(fā);陳平;;外商直接投資對中國出口貿(mào)易的作用分析[J];管理世界;2005年05期

9 強(qiáng)永昌,吳兢,陳愛瑋,胡曉華;有關(guān)人民幣匯率問題的對外貿(mào)易分析[J];世界經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2004年08期

10 趙大平;匯率傳遞及其對貿(mào)易平衡的影響[J];世界經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2005年09期

本文編號：1612336