本文選題：經(jīng)濟(jì)周期　切入點(diǎn)：信貸周期　出處：《吉林財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：貨幣政策是國家對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行調(diào)節(jié)與控制的重要政策，中央銀行通過調(diào)節(jié)貨幣供應(yīng)量來達(dá)到預(yù)期的貨幣政策目標(biāo)�，F(xiàn)實(shí)中貨幣政策影響商業(yè)銀行信貸是毋庸置疑的，但是商業(yè)銀行作為金融市場的主體，作為貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)的媒介，在信貸周期中同樣通過信貸行為來反作用于貨幣政策的實(shí)施。尤其是在我國以銀行信用為代表的間接融資占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位，商業(yè)銀行在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行中處于特殊地位，研究商業(yè)銀行的信貸周期對貨幣政策的影響顯得尤為重要。 在信貸周期漲跌交錯的同時，我國的貨幣政策也隨之變化著。商業(yè)銀行信貸周期影響貨幣政策的途徑包括：其一，商業(yè)銀行通過超額存款準(zhǔn)備金的調(diào)整，在一定程度上抵消了部分甚至全部法定存款準(zhǔn)備金率調(diào)整的作用，從而使得貨幣政策效果降低；其二，我國商業(yè)銀行單一的盈利模式限制了中央銀行在貨幣政策工具選擇上的靈活性，束縛了我國貨幣政策的有效實(shí)施；其三，，東西部信貸配給的非均衡、在信貸對象上的配給非均衡導(dǎo)致我國貨幣政策的實(shí)施在不同區(qū)域、不同經(jīng)濟(jì)周期下產(chǎn)生不同的效果。 通過對經(jīng)濟(jì)波動變量GDP增長率和信貸周期波動變量信貸余額增長率的模型分析得出二者正相關(guān)的結(jié)論，尤其在信貸緊縮時期，信貸增速對于GDP的貢獻(xiàn)更加顯著，這也能解釋在經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇時期增加信貸對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展有較大的刺激作用。 針對信貸周期下我國貨幣政策實(shí)施的弱化狀況，中央銀行、商業(yè)銀行、金融監(jiān)管、金融市場改革等方面多角度多管齊下，具體包括改進(jìn)中央銀行制定貨幣政策方式、貨幣政策工具選擇的多樣化、完善商業(yè)銀行信貸結(jié)構(gòu)和強(qiáng)化信貸質(zhì)量、推進(jìn)金融市場改革以及加強(qiáng)金融監(jiān)管等。
[Abstract]:Monetary policy is an important policy for the country to regulate and control the macro-economy. The central bank achieves the expected monetary policy goal by regulating the money supply. In reality, the monetary policy affects the credit of commercial banks without doubt. However, as the main body of the financial market and as a medium for the transmission of monetary policy, commercial banks, In the credit cycle, it also counteracts to the implementation of monetary policy through credit behavior. Especially in China, indirect financing represented by bank credit occupies a dominant position, and commercial banks are in a special position in the operation of the national economy. It is particularly important to study the impact of the credit cycle of commercial banks on monetary policy. With the interlocking of credit cycles, China's monetary policy is also changing. The ways that the credit cycle of commercial banks affect monetary policy include: first, commercial banks adjust their reserves through excess deposits. To some extent, the effect of the adjustment of some or even all of the statutory reserve requirements has been offset, thus reducing the effect of monetary policy; second, The single profit model of commercial banks in China limits the flexibility of the central bank in the choice of monetary policy tools, and constrains the effective implementation of monetary policy in China. Third, the disequilibrium of credit rationing between the east and the west, The disequilibrium of rationing in credit objects leads to different effects of monetary policy in different regions and different economic cycles. Through the model analysis of the economic fluctuation variable GDP growth rate and the credit cycle fluctuation variable credit balance growth rate, we draw the conclusion that they are positively correlated, especially in the credit crunch period, the contribution of credit growth rate to GDP is more significant. This can also explain the economic recovery during the increase in credit has a greater stimulus to economic development. In view of the weakening situation of the implementation of monetary policy in China under the credit cycle, the central bank, commercial banks, financial supervision, financial market reform, and so on, are multi-pronged and multi-pronged, including improving the way the central bank formulates monetary policy. The diversification of monetary policy tools, the perfection of commercial bank credit structure and the strengthening of credit quality, the promotion of financial market reform and the strengthening of financial supervision.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.4;F822.0

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