本文選題：匯率升值　切入點(diǎn)：出口貿(mào)易　出處：《河北經(jīng)貿(mào)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：匯率是指兩個國家不同貨幣之間的比價或交換比率，反映了不同國家貨幣之間的價值對比關(guān)系，是一國進(jìn)行國際貿(mào)易和國際金融時最重要的綜合性價格指標(biāo)，在不同國家間起著價格轉(zhuǎn)換職能的重要作用。伴隨經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化進(jìn)程的加快，一國匯率對該國貿(mào)易的影響也越來越顯著。自1994年首次人民幣匯率改革以來，人民幣便開始進(jìn)入持續(xù)、緩慢的升值歷程。迫于西方國家的政治壓力和我國自身經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的需要，2005年7月21日，中國人民銀行宣布對人民幣匯率進(jìn)行再次改革，，宣布匯改當(dāng)日人民幣即升值2.1%。自2008年以來，受美國次貸危機(jī)引發(fā)的全球金融危機(jī)的影響，西方國家貨幣紛紛貶值，加速了人民幣升值的步伐，而且還有進(jìn)一步升值的可能。因此在這種匯率形勢下，人民幣匯率升值對地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響備受各方矚目。 河北省作為一個外貿(mào)大省,近幾年來，對外貿(mào)易無論是在總量方面還是在增速方面都有了長足的發(fā)展。但與廣州、山東等貿(mào)易發(fā)達(dá)省份相比，還有相當(dāng)大的差距。在外向型經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展程度不斷加深的背景下，依靠機(jī)電產(chǎn)品、高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)品、鋼材、醫(yī)藥產(chǎn)品等為主要出口的河北省其外貿(mào)依存度也在逐年上升。因此，研究人民幣匯率升值對河北省出口的影響，對于優(yōu)化河北省的出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)、促進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的發(fā)展乃至對河北省整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的提升都是很重要的。本文首先簡要回顧了與人民幣匯率變動對進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易影響相關(guān)的文獻(xiàn)綜述和理論綜述；然后研究了人民幣匯率升值與河北省出口貿(mào)易變化的關(guān)系。考慮到匯率升值對于河北省不同的出口國家影響可能會有所不同，因此，本文從雙邊貿(mào)易角度出發(fā)，選取歐盟、美國、日本和韓國四個河北省最重要的出口國家作為研究對象，實(shí)證分析了人民幣匯率升值與河北省對歐盟、美國、日本和韓國四國的出口關(guān)系，研究結(jié)果表明河北省的出口與人民幣匯率升值之間有著長期、穩(wěn)定的均衡關(guān)系，人民幣匯率升值對河北省的出口在短期內(nèi)會造成一定的沖擊。最后根據(jù)模型的結(jié)果提出了促進(jìn)河北省出口貿(mào)易穩(wěn)速發(fā)展的相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate refers to the value comparison or exchange rate between different currencies of two countries, which reflects the value contrast between the currencies of different countries. It is the most important comprehensive price index when a country conducts international trade and international finance. It plays an important role in the function of price conversion among different countries. With the acceleration of economic globalization, the influence of a country's exchange rate on its trade is becoming more and more significant. Since 1994, the first reform of RMB exchange rate, In July 21st 2005, the people's Bank of China announced another reform of the RMB exchange rate, due to political pressure from Western countries and the need for China's own economic development. Since 2008, under the influence of the global financial crisis caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the currencies of Western countries have depreciated one after another, accelerating the pace of appreciation of the renminbi. There is also the possibility of further appreciation. Therefore, the impact of the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate on the regional economy has attracted much attention under this exchange rate situation. Hebei Province, as a big foreign trade province, has made great progress in foreign trade in recent years, both in terms of total volume and growth rate. However, compared with developed provinces such as Guangzhou and Shandong, There is still a considerable gap. Under the background of the deepening degree of export-oriented economy, the dependence on foreign trade of Hebei Province, which relies on mechanical and electrical products, high-tech products, steel products, pharmaceutical products and so on, is also increasing year by year. To study the impact of RMB exchange rate appreciation on the export of Hebei Province, and to optimize the export commodity structure of Hebei Province, It is very important to promote the development of export trade and even to promote the overall economy of Hebei Province. Firstly, this paper briefly reviews the literature review and theoretical review related to the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on import and export trade. Then it studies the relationship between the appreciation of RMB exchange rate and the change of export trade in Hebei Province. Considering that the effect of exchange rate appreciation on different export countries of Hebei Province may be different, this paper chooses the European Union from the perspective of bilateral trade. Four of the most important export countries in Hebei Province, the United States, Japan and South Korea, as research objects, empirically analyzed the relationship between the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and Hebei's exports to the European Union, the United States, Japan and South Korea. The results show that there is a long-term, stable and balanced relationship between Hebei's exports and the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate. The appreciation of RMB exchange rate will cause a certain impact on the export of Hebei Province in the short term. Finally, according to the results of the model, the relevant policy suggestions to promote the steady development of Hebei's export trade are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北經(jīng)貿(mào)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F752.8;F832.6;F224

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

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本文編號：1578768