本文關(guān)鍵詞： 人民幣升值 加工貿(mào)易 成本結(jié)構(gòu) 協(xié)整分析　出處：《陜西師范大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：人民幣升值是我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展面臨的長期熱點議題,升值的效應(yīng)集中體現(xiàn)在貿(mào)易以及投資領(lǐng)域,尤其對貿(mào)易影響巨大。2011年中國加工貿(mào)易額達13052.2億美元,同年中國加工貿(mào)易順差為3656.2億美元,然而當年的貿(mào)易順差總額為1551.3億美元,加工貿(mào)易順差是貿(mào)易順差總額的兩倍還多,由此可見,加工貿(mào)易順差己成為我國貿(mào)易順差的最重要來源。我國多年積累的“順差性”貿(mào)易收支失衡是人民幣升值的主要來源。從歷史來看,2005年7月以來,人民幣持續(xù)升值,至2011年12月兌美元的名義匯率已經(jīng)升值接近30%,而這種升值預(yù)期過程仍將持續(xù)。為何在人民幣升值的背景下,我國的加工貿(mào)易順差還在持續(xù)擴大?人民幣升值能否改變我國貿(mào)易收支失衡的狀況?未來應(yīng)該如何選擇升值路徑,以減少升值的負面影響?文章通過研究匯率變動的貿(mào)易收支效應(yīng),嘗試解答上述系列問題。 本文從理論和實證兩個方面來破解人民幣升值背景下,加工貿(mào)易順差持續(xù)擴大之迷。 理論方面,首先闡述實際有效匯率相關(guān)理論,以及實際有效匯率的測算方法,然后介紹了匯率傳遞的相關(guān)理論,以及它是如何影響加工貿(mào)易,最后基于加工貿(mào)易自身的特點,應(yīng)用成本結(jié)構(gòu)分析的方法說明了人民幣升值對加工貿(mào)易進出口影響的作用機理。得出的結(jié)論是,由于加工貿(mào)易兩頭在外的特殊性,人民幣的升值對加工貿(mào)易的影響很小,相反有可能擴大加工貿(mào)易的順差,進而使我國的貿(mào)易順差再度擴大。 實證方面,本文選取加工貿(mào)易進出口、FDI、國民收入、人民幣實際有效匯率、貿(mào)易政策等變量,首先對這些變量的平穩(wěn)性進行了檢驗,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)這些變量一階差分為平穩(wěn)序列,然后用協(xié)整的方法對這些變量的長期均衡關(guān)系進行了檢驗,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),加工貿(mào)易進出口分別與人民幣實際有效匯率、FDI、經(jīng)濟增長、政策變量具有長期均衡關(guān)系,其中政策變量對加工貿(mào)易進出口的影響最大,人民幣實際有效匯率和加工貿(mào)易進口有負相關(guān)關(guān)系,和加工貿(mào)易出口有正相關(guān)關(guān)系。
[Abstract]:RMB appreciation is a long-term hot topic in China's economic development. The effect of RMB appreciation is concentrated in the fields of trade and investment, especially on trade. In 2011, China's processing trade volume reached one tillion three hundred and five billion two hundred and twenty million US dollars. In the same year, China's processing trade surplus was US $365.62 billion, but that year's total trade surplus was US $155.13 billion. This shows that the processing trade surplus is more than twice the total amount of trade surplus. Processing trade surplus has become the most important source of China's trade surplus. The "surplus" trade imbalance accumulated for many years is the main source of RMB appreciation. By December 2011, the nominal exchange rate against the US dollar had risen close to 30 percent, and the process of such appreciation was expected to continue. Why is China's processing trade surplus still expanding against the background of the appreciation of the RMB? Can the appreciation of RMB change the imbalance of China's Trade balance? How should we choose the path of appreciation in the future in order to reduce the negative impact of appreciation? This paper tries to answer the above questions by studying the trade balance effect of exchange rate change. Under the background of RMB appreciation, this paper tries to solve the puzzle of the continuous expansion of processing trade surplus from both theoretical and empirical aspects. In theory, the theory of real effective exchange rate and the calculation method of real effective exchange rate are expounded, then the relevant theory of exchange rate transmission and how it affects processing trade are introduced. Finally, based on the characteristics of processing trade, The mechanism of the effect of RMB appreciation on the import and export of processing trade is explained by using the method of cost structure analysis. The conclusion is that the appreciation of RMB has little effect on processing trade due to the particularity of the two ends of processing trade. On the contrary, it is possible to expand the surplus of processing trade, and then expand our trade surplus again. In the empirical aspect, this paper selects the variables of import and export FDI, national income, real effective exchange rate of RMB, trade policy and so on to test the stability of these variables. The results show that the first order difference of these variables is a stationary sequence. Then the long-term equilibrium relationship of these variables is tested by cointegration method. The results show that the import and export of processing trade and the real effective exchange rate of RMB FDI, economic growth, policy variables have long-term equilibrium relationship. Among them, policy variables have the greatest influence on the import and export of processing trade, the real effective exchange rate of RMB has a negative correlation with the import of processing trade, and there is a positive correlation between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the export of processing trade.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：陜西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F752.68;F832.6

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