本文關(guān)鍵詞： 人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率 國(guó)際貿(mào)易 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng) GMM估計(jì)　出處：《東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長(zhǎng)的30年間,外貿(mào)所起的作用不可小視。但是由于中國(guó)對(duì)主要貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó)一直以來(lái)均保持順差并且順差額逐年加大,造成貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó)頗有微詞,普遍認(rèn)為人民幣匯率嚴(yán)重低估。迫于各方壓力及中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的需要,2005年7月開始按照主動(dòng)性、可控性、漸進(jìn)性的原則進(jìn)行匯率制度改革,實(shí)行以市場(chǎng)供求為基礎(chǔ)的、參考一籃子貨幣的浮動(dòng)匯率制度。截至到2012年2月人民幣兌美元匯率由8.0702升值到6.308,累計(jì)升值20.99%。人民幣升值后帶來(lái)一系列的影響,大部分領(lǐng)域的出口商品數(shù)量減少,出口企業(yè)利潤(rùn)下降,面臨生存困境；貿(mào)易順差減少,甚至2012年開始出現(xiàn)逆差。另一方面,人民幣的升值也使得中國(guó)企業(yè)的進(jìn)口成本下降,對(duì)我國(guó)進(jìn)口企業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)無(wú)疑具有積極的作用。 匯率作為一國(guó)參與國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的重要的綜合性指標(biāo),它的變化將對(duì)一國(guó)的貿(mào)易收支、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)及產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展都會(huì)產(chǎn)生重要的影響。從人民幣發(fā)展史來(lái)看,不論是在東南亞危機(jī)中的人民幣貶值的爭(zhēng)議,還是目前人民幣面臨的升值的壓力,關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)都集中在人民幣和外貿(mào)之間的關(guān)系。因此分析人民幣匯率與中國(guó)外貿(mào)之間的關(guān)系,不僅關(guān)系到中國(guó)外貿(mào)的健康平穩(wěn)發(fā)展和人民幣匯率制度改革的推進(jìn),并且關(guān)系到我國(guó)整個(gè)改革開放的大局,關(guān)系到中國(guó)與貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó)之間的貿(mào)易關(guān)系,因此研究人民幣匯率變化與我國(guó)外貿(mào)之間的關(guān)系具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 有關(guān)匯率與貿(mào)易的關(guān)系的研究方法主要有時(shí)滯效應(yīng)分析法、貨幣分析法、吸收分析法和彈性分析法,已經(jīng)形成了系統(tǒng)的理論體系。其中,尤其是彈性分析法中的馬歇爾——勒納條件,論述十分嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)。貨幣分析法、吸收分析法主要從宏觀層面進(jìn)行分析；時(shí)滯效應(yīng)分析法、彈性分析法雖然都是微觀層面的分析,但是它們對(duì)于匯率變動(dòng)和貿(mào)易收支之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了高度的抽象,有嚴(yán)格的假設(shè)前提,例如彈性分析法的假設(shè)前提是匯率變動(dòng)等同于進(jìn)出口實(shí)際價(jià)格的變動(dòng),時(shí)滯效應(yīng)分析法的假設(shè)前提是進(jìn)出口定價(jià)的貨幣比重存在不同。本文的研究目的并不是為了建立一個(gè)理論體系,而是針對(duì)現(xiàn)實(shí)中的現(xiàn)象做具體的分析,即從人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)中國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易的發(fā)展這一角度進(jìn)行重點(diǎn)研究,考察人民幣匯率對(duì)國(guó)際貿(mào)易影響的作用機(jī)制和作用途徑,以期對(duì)目前的匯率制度改革提供有益的建議和意見。 本文主要在實(shí)證分析時(shí),不僅對(duì)全國(guó)層面上匯率對(duì)貿(mào)易的影響進(jìn)行了全面的分析,同時(shí)為了區(qū)別區(qū)域之間的差異性,還做了分區(qū)域分析。除此之外,為了使匯率變化對(duì)我國(guó)貿(mào)易發(fā)展方式的影響有更為具體的認(rèn)識(shí),本文還進(jìn)一步分析了人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)我國(guó)加工貿(mào)易發(fā)展的影響。 本文擬分七章。 ‘第一章為導(dǎo)論,主要介紹了本文的研究背景、研究意義、主要研究方法以及主要?jiǎng)?chuàng)新點(diǎn)。 第二章為文獻(xiàn)綜述部分,主要針對(duì)全球匯率制度的演變、人民幣匯率的度量方法、人民幣匯率對(duì)出口的影響、人民幣匯率對(duì)進(jìn)口的影響等幾個(gè)方面進(jìn)行了全面的文獻(xiàn)分析,并進(jìn)行了簡(jiǎn)單的總結(jié)。 第三章分析了匯改以來(lái)人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的變動(dòng)情況。為了驗(yàn)證我們選取人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率作為人民幣匯率代理指標(biāo)的合理性,我們進(jìn)一步分析了人民幣匯率和人民幣有效匯率的變動(dòng)情況,并對(duì)三個(gè)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行了各方面的比較。為了認(rèn)清有些人認(rèn)為的人民幣匯率的低估是造成美國(guó)貿(mào)易逆差擴(kuò)大的原因,采用計(jì)量分析的方法對(duì)人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率和美國(guó)貿(mào)易逆差之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn)。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的變動(dòng)并不是造成美國(guó)對(duì)中國(guó)貿(mào)易逆差擴(kuò)大的原因。接著分析了學(xué)術(shù)界的熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題之一：馬歇爾勒納條件在中美貿(mào)易間的適用性問(wèn)題進(jìn)行了重點(diǎn)的分析。選取了中美貿(mào)易收支差額、人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率、中國(guó)收入水平、美國(guó)收入水平四個(gè)變量,針對(duì)馬歇爾勒納條件的適用性進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn)。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),中美之間的貿(mào)易并不滿足馬歇爾勒納條件中進(jìn)出口商品需求彈性之和大于1的條件,這在一定程度上也可以解釋為什么人民幣升值7年多來(lái)中美之間的貿(mào)易順差并沒(méi)有降低的現(xiàn)象。 第四章采用全國(guó)層面上的省區(qū)面板數(shù)據(jù)實(shí)證分析了人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)外貿(mào)發(fā)展的影響。選取了人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率、實(shí)際利用外資、資本投入、勞動(dòng)力投入以及非市場(chǎng)化程度等變量作為解釋變量,借助廣義矩估計(jì)方法(GMM)分析了各變量對(duì)我國(guó)外貿(mào)總額、進(jìn)口額和出口額的影響。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)我國(guó)的出口、進(jìn)口的作用方向與傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)理論的結(jié)論一致,其中對(duì)出口的促進(jìn)作用(0.45)大于對(duì)進(jìn)口的阻礙作用(-0.03),正負(fù)抵消后從而導(dǎo)致人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)外貿(mào)總額產(chǎn)生了正向的促進(jìn)作用(0.34)。因此在樣本期間內(nèi),人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的升值對(duì)我國(guó)的外貿(mào)增長(zhǎng)的長(zhǎng)期影響是不利的,必須要在可控性、漸進(jìn)性的原則下進(jìn)行匯率制度的改革,并在改革過(guò)程中結(jié)合國(guó)內(nèi)外的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r進(jìn)行合理的調(diào)整,切不可因?yàn)檫M(jìn)行匯改而影響國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展良好勢(shì)頭。 為了進(jìn)一步認(rèn)清人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)外貿(mào)發(fā)展的區(qū)域不平衡現(xiàn)象產(chǎn)生了怎樣的影響,在文章的第五章進(jìn)行了分區(qū)域的檢驗(yàn)。按照行政區(qū)域的劃分樣本省市劃分為東中西部三個(gè)區(qū)域,分別檢驗(yàn)了人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)外貿(mào)總額、出口和進(jìn)口的影響。結(jié)果表明,總體上來(lái)講,人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的變動(dòng)不論是對(duì)東部地區(qū)、中部地區(qū)還是對(duì)于西部地區(qū)外貿(mào)發(fā)展的影響均符合傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)理論和金融理論的分析結(jié)果,即人民幣對(duì)外貶值,會(huì)降低中國(guó)出口產(chǎn)品的國(guó)際市場(chǎng)價(jià)格,從而增加我國(guó)的出口；另一方面又會(huì)增加進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品的國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格,從而使得進(jìn)口量減少。但是具體來(lái)說(shuō),人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)于東中西部外貿(mào)發(fā)展的作用大小存在一定的差別：(1)人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)外貿(mào)發(fā)展的影響分析結(jié)果顯示,人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率貶值1%,帶動(dòng)中部地區(qū)和西部地區(qū)的外貿(mào)發(fā)展0.5418%和0.2055%,明顯大于東部地區(qū)的影響系數(shù)(0.1544)。(2)在出口貿(mào)易上,人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)于中部地區(qū)的出口貿(mào)易推動(dòng)作用最大,為0.0460；其次為東部地區(qū)(0.0308)；人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)西部地區(qū)的促進(jìn)作用最小,為0.020。(3)人民幣匯率的變動(dòng)對(duì)東部地區(qū)進(jìn)口貿(mào)易的阻礙作用最大,人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率每貶值1%,造成東部地區(qū)的進(jìn)口貿(mào)易減少0.6245%；其次為中部地區(qū)影響系數(shù)為-0.0758；人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)西部地區(qū)的阻礙作用最小,為-0.066。 加工貿(mào)易在我國(guó)外貿(mào)發(fā)展中起到了重要的作用,占據(jù)了我國(guó)外貿(mào)發(fā)展的半壁江山,近年來(lái)推動(dòng)加工貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)成為我國(guó)上至政府部門下至企業(yè)的重要任務(wù)。為了認(rèn)清人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)我國(guó)外貿(mào)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變的影響,在本文的第六章分析了人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)加工貿(mào)易發(fā)展的影響。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),不論是在長(zhǎng)期還是短期人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率都是影響我國(guó)加工貿(mào)易發(fā)展的重要原因。(1)利用Johansen協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)方法得到的結(jié)果表明,從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率和加工貿(mào)易發(fā)展變量之間存在負(fù)相關(guān)的關(guān)系。人民幣匯率幣值每增長(zhǎng)(貶值)1%,我國(guó)的加工貿(mào)易額增速降低0.36415%。(2)誤差修正模型的檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明,上年的人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率、技術(shù)進(jìn)步、利用外資和對(duì)外開放度等變量的非均衡誤差以0.5293%的速度對(duì)本年度的加工貿(mào)易額做出修正。(3)最后,利用脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方法分解方法對(duì)各個(gè)變量對(duì)加工貿(mào)易的影響進(jìn)行了分解。分解結(jié)果表明人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的變化是導(dǎo)致加工貿(mào)易額變化的主導(dǎo)因素,而代表開放水平的對(duì)外開放度對(duì)加工貿(mào)易的影響相對(duì)較小。說(shuō)明金融全球化和資本的跨國(guó)流動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)的加工貿(mào)易的影響更為深遠(yuǎn)。人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)加工貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生的阻礙作用更大,這一結(jié)論致使我們思考,是否我國(guó)的勞動(dòng)力比較優(yōu)勢(shì)已經(jīng)喪失,從而導(dǎo)致人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的變動(dòng)對(duì)勞動(dòng)密集型產(chǎn)品出口為主的加工貿(mào)易的阻礙作用更為明顯?我國(guó)的人口紅利時(shí)期是否已經(jīng)結(jié)束,“劉易斯拐點(diǎn)”是否已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)?我們借助于劉易斯模型分析計(jì)算了我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部門和工業(yè)部門的邊際勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)我國(guó)已經(jīng)在2003年跨過(guò)了“劉易斯第一拐點(diǎn)”并且可能將在2022年跨過(guò)“劉易斯第二拐點(diǎn)”,我國(guó)已經(jīng)從勞動(dòng)力無(wú)限剩余進(jìn)入了有限供給階段,勞動(dòng)力比較有優(yōu)勢(shì)正在慢慢消逝。 第七章為本文的研究結(jié)論和政策建議部分。
[Abstract]:China rapid economic growth during the past 30 years, foreign trade plays important role. But because of Chinese of major trading partners have remained surplus and surplus increased year by year, the trade partners is quite critical, generally considered the RMB exchange rate undervalued. Under pressure from all sides and China economic sustainable development, in accordance with the initiative started in July 2005, controllability and gradual progress of the principle of the reform of exchange rate system, implement based on market supply and demand, the floating exchange rate system with reference to a basket of currencies. By February 2012 the RMB exchange rate against the dollar by 8.0702 rise to 6.308, the cumulative appreciation of RMB appreciation of the impact of the 20.99%. series, the volume of export in most areas of reduced exports the decline in corporate profits, facing the survival dilemma; reduce the trade surplus, even deficit since 2012. On the other hand, people The appreciation of the national currency also reduced the import cost of Chinese enterprises, and undoubtedly had a positive effect on the import enterprises of our country.
The exchange rate as a country participating in international economic activity important comprehensive index, it will change to a country's balance of trade, economic growth and industrial development will produce the important influence. From the perspective of the development history of RMB, whether in the Southeast Asian crisis in the devaluation of the dispute, or the revaluation of the renminbi. The pressure, the focus of attention has focused on the relationship between RMB and foreign trade. So the analysis of the relationship between RMB exchange rate and foreign trade Chinese, not only related to the healthy and stable development of foreign trade Chinese and RMB exchange rate system reform, and in relation to our country the overall situation of reform and opening up, the relationship between Chinese and trade partners trade the relationship, which has important theoretical and practical significance to study the relationship between RMB exchange rate and China's foreign trade.
The research methods about the relationship between exchange rate and trade the main time lag effect analysis, monetary analysis, absorption analysis and elastic analysis method, has formed a systematic theoretical system. Among them, especially the elastic analysis of the Marshall - Lerner condition, discusses the very stringent. Currency analysis, mainly from the absorption analysis the macro level analysis method; analysis of time delay effect, elastic analysis are microcosmic analysis, but they are for the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance are highly abstract, there are strict premises, such as the assumption of elastic analysis method is equivalent to the actual exchange rate of import and export price changes, delay analysis of the effect of assumption method is the import and export pricing currency proportion is different. The purpose of this study is to establish a theoretical system, but in reality Specific analysis of the phenomenon, from the development of the RMB real effective exchange rate of China foreign trade this perspective focuses on the way to study the mechanism and the role of international trade and the influence of RMB exchange rate, in order to provide useful suggestions and opinions on the current exchange rate system reform.
This paper mainly in the empirical analysis, not only impact on the national level of exchange rate on trade is analyzed. At the same time in order to distinguish differences between regions, but also the regional analysis. In addition, in order to make the effect of exchange rate changes on China's trade development have more specific understanding of the further analysis of the impact of RMB real effective exchange rate on the development of China's processing trade.
This article is divided into seven chapters.
The first chapter is an introduction, which mainly introduces the background of the research, the significance of the research, the main research methods and the main innovation points.
The second chapter is the literature review. It mainly analyzes the evolution of the global exchange rate system, the measurement method of RMB exchange rate, the impact of RMB exchange rate on exports, and the impact of RMB exchange rate on imports, and makes a comprehensive summary of the literature.
The third chapter analyzes the changes of real effective exchange rate of RMB exchange rate reform. In order to verify our selection of RMB real effective exchange rate of RMB exchange rate as a proxy indicator of rationality, we further analyze the RMB exchange rate and RMB exchange rate changes, and three indicators were compared in various aspects. In order to understand some people underestimate the RMB exchange rate that is the cause of the US trade deficit to expand, by the way of quantitative analysis on the relationship between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the U.S. trade deficit was tested. The results showed that the RMB real effective exchange rate is not the cause of the United States to expand the trade deficit of Chinese. Then analyzes one of the hot issues in academic circles: Marshall Lerner condition is the focus of the analysis on the applicability of the Sino US trade between the selected in. The United States trade balance, the real effective exchange rate of RMB, Chinese income level, the income level of the four variables, the applicability for the Marshall Lerner condition were tested. The results showed that the trade between the two countries does not meet the Marshall Lerner condition of import and export commodities in the elasticity of demand is greater than the sum of 1 terms, this can also explain why the yuan between the appreciation of more than 7 years of Sino US trade surplus does not reduce the phenomenon to a certain extent.
The fourth chapter uses the empirical provincial panel data on the national level analysis of the impact of the RMB real effective exchange rate on China's foreign trade development. The real effective exchange rate of RMB, the actual use of foreign capital, capital investment, labor input and non market level variables as explanatory variables, using generalized method of moments (GMM) analysis the variables on China's total foreign trade, affecting imports and exports. The results show that exports of RMB exchange rate on China's import, direction and the role of the traditional economic theory is consistent, which promotes the export (0.45) is greater than the effects on imports (-0.03), after which offset lead to the real effective exchange rate of RMB has a positive effect on foreign trade (0.34). Therefore in the sample period, the real effective exchange rate of RMB appreciation of foreign trade of our country Long term effects of growth is negative, we must in the controllability of the exchange rate system reform in the progressive principle, and make reasonable adjustment with economic development situation at home and abroad in the process of reform, must not because of the reform and the impact of domestic economic development good momentum.
In order to further understand the RMB real effective exchange rate on China's foreign trade development of the regional imbalance of the impact, the test area in the fifth chapter. According to the division of the administrative division of the sample provinces for East and West three regions, respectively, to test the real effective exchange rate of RMB on foreign trade, influence export and import. The results show that, generally speaking, the RMB real effective exchange rate for the eastern region, central region and influence for the foreign trade development in the western region are in line with the results of the analysis of traditional economic theory and financial theory, namely the depreciation of RMB, will reduce the China export price in the international market, so as to increase my China's exports; on the other hand will increase the price of imported products on the domestic market, thus reduced imports. But specifically, people The RMB real effective exchange rate for a certain difference between eastern and western development of foreign trade size: (1) the impact of RMB real effective exchange rate on the foreign trade development analysis shows that the real effective exchange rate of RMB devaluation of 1%, driven by the central region and the western region of the development of foreign trade in 0.5418% and 0.2055%, significantly higher than the eastern region (0.1544 influence coefficient). (2) in the export trade, the RMB real effective exchange rate for the central region of the export trade promotion, 0.0460; followed by the eastern region (0.0308); the real effective exchange rate of RMB to the smallest improvement in the western region, 0.020. (3) inhibited the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate on import trade in eastern region the largest, the real effective exchange rate of RMB devaluation of 1% each, resulting in the eastern region of the import trade decreased by 0.6245%; followed by the central region influence coefficient of -0.0758 people; The actual effective exchange rate of the people's currency has the smallest impediment to the western region, which is -0.066.
鍔犲伐璐告槗鍦ㄦ垜鍥藉璐稿彂灞曚腑璧峰埌浜?jiǎn)閲嶈鐨勪綔鐢?鍗犳嵁浜?jiǎn)鎴戝浗澶栬锤鍙戝睍鐨勫崐澹佹睙灞?榪戝勾鏉ユ帹鍔ㄥ姞宸ヨ錘鏄撹漿鍨嬪崌綰ф垚涓烘垜鍥戒笂鑷蟲斂搴滈儴闂ㄤ笅鑷充紒涓氱殑閲嶈浠誨姟.涓轟簡(jiǎn)璁ゆ竻浜烘皯甯佸疄闄呮湁鏁堟眹鐜囧鎴戝浗澶栬錘鍙戝睍鏂瑰紡杞彉鐨勫獎(jiǎng)鍝，

本文編號(hào)：1530898