本文關(guān)鍵詞： 貨幣政策 國(guó)際資本流動(dòng) 外匯儲(chǔ)備 外匯占款　出處：《天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：進(jìn)入20世紀(jì)90年代以來(lái),我國(guó)國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的規(guī)模迅速擴(kuò)大,已經(jīng)達(dá)到了空前的水平。另一方面,我國(guó)的貨幣政策已由2008年為了應(yīng)對(duì)全球型的金融危機(jī)而實(shí)行的適度寬松政策調(diào)整到了穩(wěn)健,然而回歸常態(tài)化的貨幣政策效果卻低于預(yù)期,這與同時(shí)期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的異動(dòng)分不開(kāi),規(guī)模龐大的國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)貨幣政策的實(shí)施效果產(chǎn)生重要影響。 在此背景下,定性定量地分析國(guó)際資本的流動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)當(dāng)前穩(wěn)健的貨幣政策效果影響就顯得尤為重要。首先,文章借鑒實(shí)際經(jīng)驗(yàn)及實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,匯率變化預(yù)期、實(shí)體資產(chǎn)價(jià)值、證券市場(chǎng)收益及中國(guó)對(duì)外開(kāi)放程度是影響我國(guó)國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的重要影響因素。其次,文章通過(guò)貨幣供給模型進(jìn)行定性分析發(fā)現(xiàn),無(wú)論國(guó)際資本流入或是流出都將對(duì)我國(guó)貨幣政策產(chǎn)生影響,進(jìn)一步利用改進(jìn)的蒙代爾-弗萊明理論模型進(jìn)行分析可以得到資本流動(dòng)削弱貨幣政策效果的結(jié)論。在此基礎(chǔ)上,文章借助VAR模型分析影響程度,結(jié)果表明外匯占款對(duì)貨幣供應(yīng)量的影響主要體現(xiàn)在短期內(nèi),但依然是重要的影響因素。 然而,隨著我國(guó)匯率升值預(yù)期的回落、房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的低迷與股市的不振,我國(guó)國(guó)際資本流入明顯放緩,再加上意愿結(jié)售匯的實(shí)施,我國(guó)面對(duì)的國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)存在更大的不確定性。因此,為了填補(bǔ)外匯占款被動(dòng)發(fā)放貨幣的主要貨幣供給渠道的空白,我國(guó)采取了逆回購(gòu)的更具靈活性的公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)操作手段,以降低國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的不確定性對(duì)我國(guó)貨幣政策實(shí)施效果帶來(lái)的影響。雖然外匯占款絕對(duì)數(shù)的減少降低了國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)對(duì)貨幣政策效果的影響,但并不意味著外匯占款對(duì)貨幣政策影響路徑的消失,國(guó)際資本異動(dòng)依然威脅著我國(guó)貨幣政策的有效性�；诖�,我國(guó)可以考慮從增加人民幣匯率的彈性、規(guī)范外資對(duì)我國(guó)房市及股市的準(zhǔn)入,同時(shí)加強(qiáng)資本流動(dòng)的監(jiān)控和管理這三個(gè)方面著手,以減少資本流動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)貨幣政策獨(dú)立性的影響,達(dá)到更好的貨幣政策的預(yù)期效果。
[Abstract]:Since 1990s, the scale of China's international capital flows has expanded rapidly and has reached an unprecedented level. On the other hand, The monetary policy of our country has been adjusted from the moderate easing policy in 2008 to steady in response to the global financial crisis, but the effect of returning to the norm is lower than expected. This cannot be separated from the change of international capital flow in the same period. The large scale of international capital flow has an important influence on the implementation effect of monetary policy in China. In this context, qualitative and quantitative analysis of the impact of international capital flows on the effectiveness of China's current prudent monetary policy is particularly important. Firstly, the article draws lessons from practical experience and empirical results show that exchange rate changes are expected. The value of real assets, the income of securities market and the degree of China's opening to the outside world are the important factors that affect the international capital flow of our country. Both international capital inflows and outflows will have an impact on China's monetary policy. Further analysis with the improved Mondal-Fleming theory model can lead to the conclusion that capital flows weaken the effectiveness of monetary policy. Based on the VAR model, the results show that the influence of foreign exchange on money supply is mainly reflected in the short term, but it is still an important factor. However, with the decline of the expectation of exchange rate appreciation in China, the downturn in the real estate market and the depression of the stock market, the inflow of international capital in China has slowed markedly, and the implementation of the willingness to settle and sell foreign exchange has also been added. Therefore, in order to fill the gap in the main money supply channels in which foreign exchange accounts passively issue money, China has adopted a more flexible open market operation method of reverse repurchase. In order to reduce the uncertainty of international capital flows on the effect of monetary policy implementation in China. Although the reduction in the absolute number of foreign exchange accounts has reduced the impact of international capital flows on the effect of monetary policy, However, it does not mean that the influence of foreign exchange on monetary policy will disappear, and that international capital movements will still threaten the effectiveness of China's monetary policy. Based on this, China may consider increasing the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate. In order to reduce the influence of capital flow on the independence of monetary policy and achieve the expected effect of monetary policy, we should standardize the entry of foreign capital to China's housing market and stock market, and strengthen the supervision and management of capital flow in order to reduce the impact of capital flow on the independence of monetary policy in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F831.7;F822.0

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