本文關(guān)鍵詞： 維度 上市公司 歸因信息 市場反應(yīng)　出處：《沈陽工業(yè)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：全流通時代，投資者對經(jīng)營業(yè)績變動原因等語言信息的關(guān)注度日益提升。國內(nèi)外學(xué)者對歸因語言信息的研究普遍集中于自利性歸因行為的檢驗(yàn)，對歸因信息能否影響投資者決策，歸因信息披露能否引起市場反應(yīng)的研究還非常有限。本文對歸因信息影響投資者決策進(jìn)行理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上，運(yùn)用實(shí)證研究方法檢驗(yàn)業(yè)績預(yù)告歸因信息披露的市場反應(yīng)，并提出完善歸因信息披露規(guī)范建議。論文的研究有助于提高歸因信息披露質(zhì)量，幫助信息使用者更有效地利用歸因信息。 論文將維納的歸因效果理論引入到財務(wù)報告情境下解釋歸因信息對投資者決策的影響，預(yù)測歸因信息披露可能產(chǎn)生的資本市場反應(yīng)。實(shí)證研究部分以2010-2011年395份業(yè)績預(yù)告臨時公告為樣本，運(yùn)用內(nèi)容分析法對定性的歸因信息進(jìn)行部位編碼和穩(wěn)定性編碼；運(yùn)用事件研究方法計量業(yè)績預(yù)告臨時公告披露的資本市場反應(yīng)；構(gòu)建多元回歸模型檢驗(yàn)歸因部位和歸因穩(wěn)定性與市場反應(yīng)之間的關(guān)系。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：（1）對于公布好消息公司，披露內(nèi)部歸因比披露外部歸因更能使投資者對公司股票價格有好的預(yù)期，提供內(nèi)部歸因的市場反應(yīng)大于提供外部歸因的市場反應(yīng)；好消息公司披露的歸因信息穩(wěn)定性越強(qiáng)，市場反應(yīng)幅度越大，歸因穩(wěn)定性與市場反應(yīng)呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系。（2）對于公布壞消息公司，披露內(nèi)部歸因比披露外部歸因更能降低投資者對股票價格的預(yù)期，提供內(nèi)部歸因的市場反應(yīng)小于提供外部歸因的市場反應(yīng)；壞消息公司披露的歸因信息穩(wěn)定性越強(qiáng)，對市場反應(yīng)的負(fù)面影響越大，，歸因的穩(wěn)定性與市場反應(yīng)負(fù)相關(guān)。本文運(yùn)用均值調(diào)整模型對累計異常報酬率重新計量，檢驗(yàn)回歸結(jié)果的敏感性，結(jié)果表明文章的研究結(jié)論具有穩(wěn)健性。投資者信任管理層在業(yè)績預(yù)告中披露的歸因信息，且經(jīng)過對歸因的部位及穩(wěn)定性維度進(jìn)行判斷，據(jù)此估計公司的股票價格并做出投資決策。 最后論文提出監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)應(yīng)制定歸因信息披露指導(dǎo)性原則等建議，核心思想是對于理性的投資者能夠判斷出歸因信息的部位和穩(wěn)定性，從而做出理性的投資決策。
[Abstract]:In the era of full circulation, investors pay more and more attention to linguistic information, such as the reasons of change in business performance. The researches on attribution language information at home and abroad are generally focused on the test of self-interest attribution behavior. The research on whether attribution information can influence investors' decision and whether attribution information disclosure can cause market reaction is very limited. Using the empirical research method to test the market reaction of the attribution information disclosure of the performance forecast, and put forward the suggestion to perfect the attribution information disclosure standard. The research of this paper is helpful to improve the quality of the attribution information disclosure. Help information users to use attribution information more effectively. In this paper, Wiener's attribution effect theory is introduced to explain the impact of attribution information on investors' decision-making in the context of financial reporting. The part of empirical research takes 395 interim announcements of performance forecast in 2010-2011 as a sample and uses content analysis method to encode qualitative attribution information on site and stability. Using the event research method to measure the capital market reaction disclosed in the interim announcement of performance forecast; to construct a multivariate regression model to test the relationship between attribution location, attribution stability and market reaction. Disclosure of internal attribution than disclosure of external attribution can make investors have a better expectation of the company's stock price, and the market response of providing internal attribution is greater than that of providing external attribution, and the stability of attribution information disclosed by good news companies is stronger than that of external attribution. The greater the market response, the more positive correlation between attribution stability and market response.) for bad news companies, disclosure of internal attribution than disclosure of external attribution can lower investors' expectations of stock prices. The greater the stability of attribution information disclosed by bad news companies, the greater the negative impact on market response. The stability of attribution is negatively correlated with market reaction. The results show that the conclusions of this paper are robust. Investors trust the attribution information disclosed by management in the performance forecast, and judge the location and stability of attribution. Estimate the company's stock price and make investment decisions accordingly. Finally, the paper puts forward the suggestion that the regulator should formulate the guiding principle of attribution information disclosure. The core idea is that rational investors can judge the location and stability of attribution information and make rational investment decisions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：沈陽工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.51;F275

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 宋璐,陳金賢;我國上市公司年報業(yè)績預(yù)告對股價影響的實(shí)證研究[J];商業(yè)研究;2004年19期

2 方麗娟;耿閃清;;環(huán)境會計信息披露的國際動態(tài)述評[J];財會通訊(綜合版);2007年02期

3 孫蔓莉;;年報自利性歸因案例研究[J];財務(wù)與會計;2008年22期

4 鐘精騰;業(yè)績預(yù)告制度下的機(jī)會把握——業(yè)績預(yù)告后股價走勢實(shí)證分析[J];股市動態(tài)分析;2005年15期

5 孫蔓莉,姚岳;公司報告語言信息研究[J];甘肅社會科學(xué);2005年03期

6 楊德明;林斌;;業(yè)績預(yù)告的市場反應(yīng)研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)管理;2006年16期

7 譚興民;宋增基;蒲勇健;;公司治理影響信息披露了嗎?——對中英資本市場的實(shí)證比較研究[J];金融研究;2009年08期

8 陳毓圭;圍繞信息需求 改進(jìn)企業(yè)報告——美國注冊會計師協(xié)會研究報告《改進(jìn)企業(yè)報告》簡述[J];會計研究;1996年05期

9 閻達(dá)五,孫蔓莉;深市B股發(fā)行公司年度報告可讀性特征研究[J];會計研究;2002年05期

10 沈洪濤;;公司特征與公司社會責(zé)任信息披露——來自我國上市公司的經(jīng)驗(yàn)證據(jù)[J];會計研究;2007年03期

本文編號：1489078