本文關(guān)鍵詞： 石油美元 人民幣支付功能 石油計(jì)價(jià)體系 博弈模型　出處：《武漢理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：石油作為世界上最重要的大宗資源性產(chǎn)品,具有重要的戰(zhàn)略軍事地位。在能源爭(zhēng)奪戰(zhàn)打得越來越激烈的今天,石油的計(jì)價(jià)貨幣之爭(zhēng)也開始悄然升溫。由于美元在國(guó)際貨幣體系中的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位,國(guó)際貿(mào)易中的石油交易大多以美元定價(jià)結(jié)算,于是在世界范圍內(nèi)形成了一個(gè)龐大的石油美元計(jì)價(jià)體系。石油美元概念的出現(xiàn)不僅僅指出了石油以美元計(jì)價(jià)這一現(xiàn)實(shí),更暗含了美國(guó)對(duì)石油價(jià)格形成的影響力。美元作為石油的計(jì)價(jià)貨幣為美國(guó)賺取了巨額財(cái)富的同時(shí)也給其他國(guó)家?guī)砹藫p失。于是在石油計(jì)價(jià)貨幣的領(lǐng)域,削弱美元統(tǒng)治地位的國(guó)際呼聲也越來越強(qiáng)烈。中國(guó)作為一個(gè)新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體,對(duì)石油的需求量不斷攀升。1993年以來,中國(guó)就成為了石油的凈進(jìn)口國(guó),對(duì)外依存度不斷提升,如果能夠通過推行石油人民幣計(jì)價(jià)來提升人民幣的支付功能,不僅僅對(duì)于人民幣的國(guó)際化有著重要的推進(jìn)作用,也對(duì)于中國(guó)未來的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展十分有利。 本文從介紹國(guó)際石油市場(chǎng)的概況出發(fā),從供求,現(xiàn)貨期貨市場(chǎng),美元計(jì)價(jià)和石油美元遭到的挑戰(zhàn)四個(gè)方面介紹了國(guó)際石油市場(chǎng)的現(xiàn)狀。然后介紹了我國(guó)石油市場(chǎng)發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀和趨勢(shì)。從石油供求,技術(shù)與政策法規(guī)幾個(gè)方面分析了我國(guó)缺乏石油定價(jià)權(quán)的現(xiàn)實(shí)原因。這兩個(gè)部分共同揭示了我國(guó)推行人民幣石油計(jì)價(jià)的機(jī)遇和挑戰(zhàn)。然后就是本文的重點(diǎn),通過討價(jià)還價(jià)博弈模型探討了人民幣在石油計(jì)價(jià)體系中的弱勢(shì)地位是如何影響我國(guó)在石油定價(jià)上的話語權(quán)的,然后通過另外兩個(gè)博弈模型,即子博弈完美模型和完美貝葉斯模型分析了人民幣進(jìn)入石油美元計(jì)價(jià)體系的可能性。接著,本文描述了石油美元,石油歐元和石油盧布的發(fā)展歷程及特點(diǎn),并同人民幣石油定價(jià)進(jìn)行比較分析。最后,針對(duì)我國(guó)的實(shí)際情況,從發(fā)展金融市場(chǎng),制定有關(guān)能源安全的政策法規(guī)和推進(jìn)與其他國(guó)家的戰(zhàn)略合作三個(gè)方面就如何使人民幣在與美元的石油計(jì)價(jià)貨幣博弈中獲利,由此加強(qiáng)石油定價(jià)話語權(quán)的同時(shí)提升人民幣的國(guó)際支付功能,開拓人民幣國(guó)際化新路徑提出政策和建議。
[Abstract]:Oil, as the most important resource product in the world, has an important strategic military status. Due to the leading position of the dollar in the international monetary system, most oil transactions in international trade are settled in dollars. The concept of petrodollars not only points out the fact that oil is valued in US dollars. The United States' influence on oil prices is implicit. The dollar, as the currency of oil, has made the United States a great deal of money, but it has also brought losses to other countries, so it is in the field of petroleum-denominated currencies. There has also been a growing international clamour to weaken the dominance of the dollar. As an emerging economy, China's demand for oil has been rising. Since 1993, China has become a net importer of oil. The degree of dependence on foreign countries continues to improve. If we can promote the payment function of RMB through the implementation of petro-RMB valuation, it will not only play an important role in promoting the internationalization of RMB. It is also beneficial to China's economic development in the future. This paper introduces the general situation of the international oil market, from the supply and demand, spot futures market. This paper introduces the current situation of the international oil market from four aspects: the valuation of US dollars and the challenge to petrodollars, and then introduces the present situation and trend of the development of the oil market in China, from the point of view of oil supply and demand. This paper analyzes the practical reasons for the lack of oil pricing power in China from the aspects of technology and policies and regulations. These two parts jointly reveal the opportunities and challenges for the implementation of RMB oil pricing in China. This paper discusses how the weak position of RMB in the petroleum pricing system affects the right to speak in oil pricing through the bargaining game model, and then through the other two game models. The subgame perfect model and perfect Bayesian model analyze the possibility of RMB entering petrodollars pricing system. Then, this paper describes the development and characteristics of petrodollars, petroleum euros and oil roubles. And compared with the RMB oil pricing. Finally, according to the actual situation of China, from the development of financial markets. To formulate policies and regulations on energy security and to promote strategic cooperation with other countries on how to make the RMB profit in the petroleum-denominated currency game with the US dollar. Therefore, it is necessary to enhance the international payment function of RMB while strengthening the right of oil pricing, and to open up a new path of RMB internationalization.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F426.22

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