本文關(guān)鍵詞： 業(yè)績變臉 公開信息 因子分析　出處：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：自創(chuàng)業(yè)板的設(shè)立以來,已經(jīng)有355家公司在創(chuàng)業(yè)板上市。創(chuàng)業(yè)板為扶持中小企業(yè),為風(fēng)險投資建立退出機制,為資助創(chuàng)新國家戰(zhàn)略提供融資平臺,為對多層次的資本市場體系的建立都做出了巨大的貢獻。但由于我國資本市場發(fā)展還不夠完善,伴隨著創(chuàng)業(yè)板的誕生,業(yè)績變臉現(xiàn)象便層出不窮。 如何幫助投資者有效辨別上市公司是否有業(yè)績變臉的傾向,并規(guī)避風(fēng)險。如何建立有效的監(jiān)管機制,為監(jiān)管者在實施監(jiān)管時提供理論依據(jù),減少并最終杜絕業(yè)績變臉的發(fā)生。這些是公眾和媒體一直在討論和呼吁的問題,但學(xué)界卻鮮有人關(guān)注。本文的目的就在于幫助投資者建立一套通過對公開信息的解讀來有效辨別上市公司是否有業(yè)績變臉的傾向,并規(guī)避風(fēng)險的方法,并為監(jiān)管者在實施監(jiān)管時提供理論依據(jù)。 本文首先闡述了研究背景和研究意義,然后分別采用多元回歸和因子分析的方法,針對創(chuàng)業(yè)板自設(shè)立以來的355家上市公司的數(shù)據(jù),進行了深入系統(tǒng)的研究,實證檢驗了發(fā)行市盈率、發(fā)行價格、機構(gòu)網(wǎng)下累計超額認(rèn)購倍數(shù)和公司年齡等對公司上市當(dāng)年業(yè)績增長率的影響。 本文研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：由于承銷商和機構(gòu)投資者具有普通投資者所不能比擬的信息優(yōu)勢和研究優(yōu)勢,它們對上市公司未來盈利能力的預(yù)測也是相對準(zhǔn)確的,而且是可以通過信號傳遞出來的。發(fā)行價格越高,發(fā)行市盈率越高,機構(gòu)網(wǎng)下累計超額認(rèn)購倍數(shù)越高,就說明承銷商和機構(gòu)投資者對公司的未來盈利能力充滿信心。如果再加上公司的年齡相對較小,那樣的話上市公司在上市當(dāng)年出現(xiàn)業(yè)績變臉的可能性就非常小了。反之,如果發(fā)行價格比較低,發(fā)行市盈率比較低,機構(gòu)網(wǎng)下累計超額認(rèn)購倍數(shù)也比較低,再加上公司的年齡相對較大,上市公司在上市當(dāng)年出現(xiàn)業(yè)績變臉的可能性就比較大。
[Abstract]:Since the establishment of the gem, 355 companies have been listed on the gem. The gem is to support small and medium-sized enterprises, establish an exit mechanism for venture capital, and provide a financing platform for financing innovative national strategies. Great contribution has been made to the establishment of multi-level capital market system, but the development of capital market in our country is not perfect enough. With the birth of gem, the phenomenon of performance change appears endlessly. How to help investors to effectively identify whether listed companies have the tendency to face performance change and avoid risks. How to establish an effective regulatory mechanism to provide a theoretical basis for regulators in the implementation of regulation. Reduce and ultimately eliminate performance changes. These are issues that the public and the media have been discussing and calling for. The purpose of this paper is to help investors establish a set of methods to effectively identify whether the listed companies have the tendency to face performance changes and to avoid risks through the interpretation of public information. It also provides the theoretical basis for the regulators to implement the supervision. This paper first describes the research background and significance, then uses the method of multiple regression and factor analysis, aiming at the data of 355 listed companies since the establishment of gem. This paper makes a deep and systematic study, and empirically tests the effects of price / earnings ratio, issue price, the cumulative oversubscription ratio under the institutional network and the age of the company on the growth rate of the company's performance in the year of listing. This paper finds that: because underwriters and institutional investors have information advantages and research advantages that ordinary investors can not compare, their prediction of the future profitability of listed companies is relatively accurate. And it can be transmitted through the signal. The higher the issue price, the higher the price-earnings ratio of the issue, the higher the accumulative over-subscription multiple under the institutional network. This means that underwriters and institutional investors are confident about the company's profitability in the future. If combined with the company's relatively young age. On the contrary, if the price of the issue is relatively low, the price-to-earnings ratio of the issue is relatively low, and the accumulative oversubscription ratio under the institutional network is also relatively low. In addition, the company's age is relatively older, listed companies in the year of performance change is more likely.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.51

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本文編號：1448357