本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國(guó)國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備適度規(guī)模測(cè)度1994～2009——基于效用最大化分析框架的數(shù)值模擬　出處：《國(guó)際金融研究》2011年06期 　論文類型：期刊論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備 儲(chǔ)備適度規(guī)模 數(shù)值模擬 敏感性分析

【摘要】：截至2010年9月,中國(guó)以美元計(jì)價(jià)的儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模已高達(dá)2.64萬(wàn)億美元。儲(chǔ)備高速增長(zhǎng)增強(qiáng)了中國(guó)國(guó)際清償力和抵御國(guó)際金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的能力,但也會(huì)增加國(guó)內(nèi)通貨膨脹壓力,弱化貨幣政策的獨(dú)立性和有效性,成為影響內(nèi)外均衡的重要問(wèn)題。本文基于效用最大化分析框架和平滑代表性經(jīng)濟(jì)人消費(fèi)方法,采用1994~2009年度數(shù)據(jù)分析中國(guó)儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模的變化和適度規(guī)模的確定。我們認(rèn)為,中國(guó)儲(chǔ)備適度規(guī)模/GDP比率的理想變動(dòng)區(qū)間是25%~30%,從2004年開(kāi)始,實(shí)際儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模超出適度規(guī)模平均為10%左右,基本處在合意變動(dòng)區(qū)間內(nèi)。但從近期儲(chǔ)備存量走勢(shì)來(lái)看,適度儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模缺口存在加速增大的趨勢(shì)。在儲(chǔ)備管理方面,中央銀行在運(yùn)用國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備進(jìn)行資金運(yùn)營(yíng)和投資時(shí)要注意加強(qiáng)對(duì)潛在金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的監(jiān)管。
[Abstract]:As of September 2010, China's dollar-denominated reserves have reached $2.64 tillion. The rapid growth of reserves has enhanced China's ability to pay off international liquidity and withstand international financial risks. However, it will also increase domestic inflationary pressure, weaken the independence and effectiveness of monetary policy, and become an important issue affecting internal and external equilibrium. This paper based on the utility maximization analysis framework and smooth representative economic man consumption method. Using the data of 1994-2009 to analyze the change of China's reserve scale and the determination of its moderate scale, we think that the ideal range of the ratio of reserve to GDP is 25% or 30%. Since 2004, the average size of the actual reserve is about 10%, which is basically within the range of desirable change. However, from the perspective of the recent trend of the stock of reserves. In the aspect of reserve management, the central bank should pay attention to the supervision of potential financial risk when using international reserves for capital operation and investment.
【作者單位】： 中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)金融學(xué)院;浙江金融職業(yè)學(xué)院;
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6
【正文快照】： 自1994年外匯體制改革以來(lái),中國(guó)的國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模一直保持穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)。1995年儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模為735.79億美元,1996年儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模為1050.29億美元,突破千億美元大關(guān),同比增長(zhǎng)43%。受1997年亞洲金融危機(jī)影響,中國(guó)儲(chǔ)備同比增幅較低且增幅相對(duì)穩(wěn)定,總規(guī)模保持在1500億美元左右。2002年中國(guó)

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)重要報(bào)紙文章 前2條

1 本報(bào)記者 王麗娟;盧布：匯市新寵兒？[N];中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)報(bào);2010年

2 記者 朱周良;查韋斯高呼黃金產(chǎn)業(yè)國(guó)有化 金價(jià)應(yīng)聲再飆新高[N];上海證券報(bào);2011年

，

本文編號(hào)：1430910