本文關(guān)鍵詞：人民幣內(nèi)外價值偏離的原因及對我國經(jīng)濟的影響研究　出處：《浙江大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 內(nèi)外價值偏離 外升內(nèi)貶 國際比較 原因分析 經(jīng)濟影響 對策建議

【摘要】：按照購買力平價理論,一國貨幣的對外價值和對內(nèi)價值應(yīng)該呈同方向變動。一般而言,貨幣的對外價值以名義有效匯率表示,對內(nèi)價值以國內(nèi)一般物價表示,所以一國貨幣名義有效匯率升值的同時國內(nèi)一般物價應(yīng)下降,反之亦然�；诮鼛啄晡覈嗣駧艆R率及國內(nèi)CPI、資產(chǎn)價格的表現(xiàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)人民幣存在對外升值對內(nèi)貶值的貨幣現(xiàn)象,這種內(nèi)外價值的偏離不符合經(jīng)濟學(xué)經(jīng)典理論。在對人民幣外升內(nèi)貶的現(xiàn)象進行深入研究前,首先需要了解各個時期人民幣內(nèi)外價值的走向,并探討國際上其他國家是否存在此種貨幣現(xiàn)象。在此基礎(chǔ)上,開始具體分析出現(xiàn)人民幣外升內(nèi)貶現(xiàn)象的原因,以及對我國經(jīng)濟的影響。 本文首先對1978年至今的人民幣內(nèi)外價值走勢進行了梳理,將人民幣名義有效匯率和CPI、資產(chǎn)價格表現(xiàn)進行了歸納整理并分成了8個時間段,發(fā)現(xiàn)2個時期中存在人民幣外升內(nèi)貶的現(xiàn)象。隨后通過對32個發(fā)達國家和10個新興經(jīng)濟體國家貨幣的月度名義有效匯率和CPI數(shù)據(jù)進行作圖分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)貨幣外升內(nèi)貶的現(xiàn)象也存在于其他國家,發(fā)達國家貨幣內(nèi)外價值偏離多發(fā)生于上世紀(jì)80年代至90年代,而新興經(jīng)濟體國家貨幣則發(fā)生于上世紀(jì)90年代后。接著,本文針對我國人民幣外升內(nèi)貶的貨幣現(xiàn)象進行了直接原因和深層原因分析,認為人民幣升值預(yù)期、貨幣供應(yīng)量、國際收支持續(xù)雙順差和經(jīng)濟增長直接作用于人民幣內(nèi)外價值偏離,而涉外經(jīng)濟體制不對稱、生產(chǎn)要素價格長期被低估、經(jīng)濟發(fā)展失衡和購買力理論的假設(shè)限制是隱含在背后的深層原因。對于國際收支雙順差原因,本文從外匯儲備的角度進行了實證分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)人民幣名義有效匯率與CPI之間存在相互影響,而外匯儲備在大于9個月的長期內(nèi)對人民幣名義有效匯率有正向作用,對CPI的影響則通過貨幣供應(yīng)量間接發(fā)生。然后本文分析了人民幣外升內(nèi)貶對我國經(jīng)濟的影響。通過研究認為人民幣外升內(nèi)貶對包括進出口貿(mào)易、外商直接投資、出口企業(yè)利潤、就業(yè)和經(jīng)濟增長等方面的宏觀經(jīng)濟有不利影響.而且容易誘發(fā)國際游資的沖擊,并對我國貨幣政策的實施帶來挑戰(zhàn)。最后根據(jù)上述分析,本文給出了一定的政策建議。 本文的主要研究成果有:(1)對人民幣內(nèi)外價值走向按照時間進行了歸納整理,對各個國家貨幣的內(nèi)外價值進行了比較,發(fā)現(xiàn)外升內(nèi)貶并不單單存在于中國.這給我國的政策制定提供了經(jīng)驗教訓(xùn)。(2)分析了人民幣外升內(nèi)貶的直接原因和深層原因,并從國際收支視角進行了實證分析。(3)人民幣外升內(nèi)貶對我國經(jīng)濟的影響弊大于利,需要制定政策來應(yīng)對。
[Abstract]:According to purchasing power parity theory, the external and internal value of a country's currency should change in the same direction. Generally speaking, the external value of a currency is expressed as a nominal effective exchange rate, and the internal value is expressed as a general domestic price. Therefore, the nominal effective exchange rate of a country's currency appreciation should be accompanied by a decline in domestic general prices, and vice versa. Based on China's RMB exchange rate and domestic CPI in recent years, the performance of asset prices. It is found that there is a currency phenomenon of external appreciation and internal devaluation of RMB, and this deviation of internal and external value does not accord with the classical theory of economics. Before the in-depth study of the phenomenon of internal and external appreciation of RMB. First of all, it is necessary to understand the trend of the internal and external value of RMB in each period, and to explore whether there is such a currency phenomenon in other countries in the world. And the impact on our economy. In this paper, the trend of RMB internal and external value since 1978 has been combed, and the nominal effective exchange rate, CPI and asset price performance of RMB have been summarized and sorted out and divided into 8 time periods. It is found that there is a phenomenon of RMB outward appreciation and inward depreciation in two periods. Then the monthly nominal effective exchange rate and CPI data of 32 developed countries and 10 emerging economies are analyzed. It is found that the phenomenon of currency rise and decline also exists in other countries, and the deviation of the value inside and outside the currency of developed countries mostly occurred from -20s to 90s. The currency of emerging economies occurred after -10s. Then, this paper analyzes the direct causes and deep causes of the rise and fall of RMB in China, and points out that the appreciation of RMB is expected. Money supply, balance of payments and economic growth directly affect the internal and external value of RMB deviation, while the foreign economic system is asymmetric, the factor of production price has been underestimated for a long time. The unbalance of economic development and the hypothetical limitation of purchasing power theory are the underlying reasons. For the double surplus of balance of payments, this paper makes an empirical analysis from the perspective of foreign exchange reserves. It is found that there is interaction between the nominal effective exchange rate of RMB and CPI, and the foreign exchange reserve has a positive effect on the nominal effective exchange rate of RMB in a long period of more than 9 months. The impact on CPI occurs indirectly through the money supply. Then this paper analyzes the impact of RMB external appreciation and internal devaluation on China's economy. Through the research, the author thinks that the external appreciation and internal devaluation of RMB includes import and export trade. Foreign direct investment, export enterprise profits, employment and economic growth and other aspects of macroeconomic impact, and easy to induce the impact of international hot money. Finally, according to the above analysis, this paper gives some policy suggestions. The main research results of this paper are as follows: (1) the internal and external value trend of RMB is summarized and sorted according to time, and the internal and external value of each country's currency is compared. It is found that excursion does not exist only in China, which provides experience and lessons for China's policy making.) it analyzes the direct and deep causes of RMB excursion. From the perspective of balance of payments, the author makes an empirical analysis. 3) the impact of internal and external devaluation of RMB on China's economy is more harmful than good, so it is necessary to formulate policies to deal with it.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.6;F124;F224

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