本文關鍵詞：我國分析師盈利預測誤差一致性及其影響因素研究　出處：《復旦大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 分析師 盈利預測 一致性

【摘要】：隨著我國證券市場的日漸成熟,證券分析師的盈利預測在我國資本市場中扮演著越來越重要的角色。本文試圖通過對我國分析師盈利預期數(shù)據(jù)的實證及分析來解讀影響我國證券分析師報告含金量的因素。以2005年～2012年被分析師預測的所有A股上市公司為樣本,控制公司受關注程度,分析師經(jīng)驗等變量,實證檢驗了分析師預測的準確性和誤差一致性對公司股價的影響。 根據(jù)實證結果,本文認為,一方面,分析師報告盈利預測誤差越一致,對股價的影響力就越大。另一方面,分析師報告的盈利預測越準確,對股價的影響力就越大。但是分析師盈利預測的誤差一致性不論在經(jīng)濟意義上還是在統(tǒng)計意義上都要優(yōu)于盈利預測的準確性,因此在反應分析師報告價格影響力時是更好的代理變量。 介于盈利預測的誤差一致性對股價有顯著影響,本文進一步對分析師的盈利預測的誤差一致性開展了進一步的分析,有如下三個結論：1)報告盈利預測越一致的分析師,更容易被評為新財富分析師。2)分析師有意持續(xù)地提出低于實際盈利的盈利預測,使得管理層更容易擊敗盈利預測,從而股價能有較好表現(xiàn)。通過提出較低預測維護和管理層的關系,分析師也較有可能在未來獲得更多信息。3)在機構持股較多的股票,也就是投資者更成熟的股票,更容易受到分析師預期一致性的影響。 另外,本文還通過報告信息含量以及報告預期一致性這兩個指標對我國證券分析行業(yè)進行了分析與評估,以期對這一行業(yè)的評價體系及未來的行業(yè)監(jiān)管有所裨
[Abstract]:With the maturity of China's securities market, securities analysts' earnings forecasts play an increasingly important role in China's capital market. This article attempts through an empirical analysis and earnings forecast data of our analysts to interpret the impact factors of China's securities analyst report gold. From 2005 to 2012 were all analysts forecast A sample of A-share listed companies, the company control of the degree of concern, analysts experience and other variables, an empirical analysis of the influence of analyst forecast accuracy and error consistency on the company's share price.
According to the empirical results, this paper believes that, on the one hand, analysts report earnings forecast error is more consistent, the greater the influence on the stock price. On the other hand, analysts' earnings forecasts report more accurately, the greater the influence on the stock price. But analysts' earnings forecasts error consistency regardless of in the economic sense or in a statistical sense better than the accuracy of earnings forecasts, so in response to price influence is analyst report proxy variables better.
The consistency between the earnings forecast error has a significant impact on the stock price, this paper further error consistency of analyst forecast earnings to carry out further analysis, the following three conclusions: 1) the more consistent analyst report earnings forecasts, more likely to be named the new wealth analyst.2 Analyst) intends to continue to put forward below the actual earnings forecast, makes the management more easily beat earnings forecasts, and stock prices will have better performance. The proposed low predictive maintenance and management relations, analysts also more likely to get more information in the future) in.3 institutions holding more stock, the investor is more mature stock, more easily have analysts expected consistent effects.
In addition, this paper also reports the information content and the report is expected by the two indicators of consistency analysis and evaluation of China's securities industry analysis, in order to offer some help to the industry evaluation system and future industry supervision

【學位授予單位】：復旦大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.51;F224

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本文編號：1377581