本文關(guān)鍵詞：貨幣國(guó)際地位影響因素研究及其對(duì)人民幣國(guó)際化的啟示　出處：《華東師范大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 貨幣國(guó)際地位 主成分分析法 協(xié)整分析 人民幣國(guó)際化

【摘要】：20世紀(jì)80年代以來(lái),在牙買加體系下,美元失去了其絕對(duì)壟斷地位,歐元對(duì)美元發(fā)起沖擊,國(guó)際貨幣體系逐漸呈現(xiàn)出多元化的趨勢(shì),貨幣國(guó)際化與國(guó)際貨幣體系也成為了各國(guó)政府和學(xué)者所重點(diǎn)關(guān)注的經(jīng)濟(jì)與政治熱點(diǎn)。在這樣的大背景下,隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的崛起以及其他方面條件的逐漸成熟,中國(guó)也在身體力行地積極推進(jìn)著人民幣的國(guó)際化進(jìn)程,并盼望著人民幣早日能夠在國(guó)際舞臺(tái)上扮演重要角色。1996年中國(guó)實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目下的人民幣可兌換,從那時(shí)起,可以說(shuō)人民幣的國(guó)際化進(jìn)程時(shí)刻起就拉開(kāi)了序幕,此后,隨著人民幣跨境結(jié)算地區(qū)范圍的不斷擴(kuò)大以及境外直接投資人民幣結(jié)算試點(diǎn)的開(kāi)放,國(guó)際化進(jìn)程不斷向前推進(jìn),并且取得了令人矚目的成績(jī)。但是,作為當(dāng)今世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體與第二大貿(mào)易國(guó),人民幣的國(guó)際地位仍與中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)地位極不相符。因此,本文著眼于研究影響一國(guó)貨幣國(guó)際地位的各種因素,力圖為促進(jìn)人民幣成為重要的國(guó)際貨幣提供一定的建議,使人民幣國(guó)際化的前進(jìn)方向更為明確。 為了進(jìn)行研究,首先應(yīng)明確什么是貨幣的國(guó)際地位,怎么度量貨幣的國(guó)際地位,對(duì)于這一點(diǎn),目前學(xué)術(shù)界尚無(wú)定論,本文選擇使用主成分分析法,即首先建造包含五個(gè)細(xì)分指標(biāo)的體系以衡量國(guó)際貨幣的不同職能,再使用主成分分析法將這些指標(biāo)“合并”從而獲得一個(gè)能夠綜合體現(xiàn)貨幣國(guó)際地位的指標(biāo)。 隨后,根據(jù)相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)研究與理論分析,本文又選擇了一國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力(以GDP份額為代表指標(biāo))、貿(mào)易地位(以商品進(jìn)出口份額為代表指標(biāo))、幣值特征(分為幣值大小以及其穩(wěn)定性與收益性,其中前兩者用實(shí)際有效匯率及其變動(dòng)為代表指標(biāo))、金融市場(chǎng)發(fā)達(dá)程度(以債券發(fā)行量份額與銀行業(yè)國(guó)外資產(chǎn)頭寸份額為代表指標(biāo))、貨幣國(guó)際地位的歷史慣性(以貨幣國(guó)際地位的一階滯后變量為代表指標(biāo))等指標(biāo),并研究了其與貨幣國(guó)際地位之間的理論關(guān)系、相關(guān)關(guān)系與實(shí)證關(guān)系,其中,實(shí)證部分包括面板數(shù)據(jù)分析以及各國(guó)的時(shí)間序列分析。樣本范圍為美國(guó)、英國(guó)、日本以及歐元區(qū)等四個(gè)國(guó)家或地區(qū)的1999年第一季度至2012年第二季度的季度數(shù)據(jù)。 在實(shí)證研究方面,本文得出結(jié)論：根據(jù)時(shí)間序列分析,對(duì)各國(guó)貨幣有重要直接影響的因素及其發(fā)揮的作用的大小是略有不同的,但是總體來(lái)看,如果用GDP大小與商品貿(mào)易額這兩個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)來(lái)共同表示實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的話,可以發(fā)現(xiàn),無(wú)論對(duì)哪種貨幣,實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模、金融市場(chǎng)的發(fā)達(dá)程度以及歷史粘滯性都是其國(guó)際地位的重要的正向的影響因素,而與理論分析不同的是,貨幣幣值的各項(xiàng)特征都并沒(méi)有發(fā)揮顯著的直接的作用；根據(jù)面板數(shù)據(jù)分析,對(duì)貨幣國(guó)際地位影響顯著的因素按影響力從大到小排列依次為GDP規(guī)模、歷史粘滯性、貿(mào)易規(guī)模、債券市場(chǎng)規(guī)模、銀行業(yè)國(guó)外資產(chǎn)頭寸規(guī)模以及實(shí)際有效匯率的大小,而且除最后一個(gè)因素以外,這些影響都是正向的,另外,貨幣幣值的收益性以及穩(wěn)定性沒(méi)有表現(xiàn)出顯著的作用。 最后,本文介紹了人民幣國(guó)際化的現(xiàn)狀,并結(jié)合研究結(jié)論闡述了人民幣國(guó)際化所面臨的有利條件與不利因素,從而提出了推進(jìn)人民幣國(guó)際化進(jìn)程的建議：建立經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)健康增長(zhǎng)的機(jī)制；放松資本管制,進(jìn)一步完善匯率形成機(jī)制；進(jìn)一步開(kāi)放并完善整個(gè)金融體系；積極健康拓展對(duì)外貿(mào)易,鼓勵(lì)企業(yè)對(duì)外投資。
[Abstract]:Since 1980s, under the Jamaica system, the dollar has lost its monopoly position to attack the euro dollar, the international monetary system is gradually showing a trend of diversification, currency internationalization and international monetary system has become the focus of economic and political governments and scholars attention. In this context, with the rise of China economic and other conditions gradually mature, Chinese also earnestly and actively promote the internationalization of RMB, and looking forward to an early RMB in the international arena play China achieved under the current account convertibility of the RMB has an important role in.1996, from then on, can be said that the process of internationalization of the RMB has kicked off the moment and since then, with the RMB cross-border settlement area continues to expand and foreign direct investment in RMB clearing pilot. On the internationalization process is advancing, and has made remarkable achievements. However, as one of the world's second largest economy and second largest trading country, the international status of the RMB is still very inconsistent with the economic status of Chinese. Therefore, this paper focuses on the influence of various factors on a currency's international status, and tries to provide some suggestions an important international currency to promote RMB to be the direction, the internationalization of the RMB is more clear.
For the study, first of all should be clear what is the currency's international status, how to measure the currency's international status, for this, inconclusive current academia, this paper selected using a principal component analysis of different functions of the first building contains five sub indicators to measure the international monetary system, and then use principal component analysis method these indicators will be merged to obtain a comprehensive reflection of the currency's international status indicators.
Then, according to the research and theoretical analysis of related literature, this paper chose the economic strength of a country (with GDP as the representative of share index), trade status (in the import and export of goods on behalf of share index), currency characteristics (divided into the value size and its stability and profitability, the first two with the real effective exchange rate and change as the representative index), the development of financial market (by bond issuance and bank share share of foreign asset position indicators), the currency's international status (with historical inertia lag variable order a currency's international status as the representative index) and other indicators, and to study the relationship between the theory and the currency's international status, correlation and positive relationship, which includes empirical analysis of panel data analysis and the time series. The sample range for the United States, Britain, Japan and the euro zone and other four countries or regions in 1999 Quarterly data from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2012.
In the empirical research, this paper draws the conclusion: according to the analysis of time series factors have important direct impact on the national currency and the role of the size is slightly different, but generally speaking, if the GDP size and commodity trade volume of the two economic indicators to represent real economy scale, can be found, no matter what kind of currency, the size of the real economy, financial market development level and historical viscosity are all factors in the international status of the important positive effect, and theoretical analysis is different, the value of the currency features all did not play a significant direct effect; according to the analysis of panel data, the influence of the currency's international status according to the influence factors in descending order of GDP scale, the history of viscosity, the trade scale, the size of the bond market, the position of foreign assets scale of banking industry and the actual In addition to the last factor, the effective exchange rate is positive. In addition, the profitability and stability of the currency do not play a significant role.
Finally, this paper introduces the current situation of RMB internationalization, favorable conditions and combined with the research results described the internationalization of the RMB faced with unfavorable factors, and puts forward the suggestions: promoting the internationalization of the RMB to establish the mechanism of sustained and healthy economic growth; relaxation of capital controls, to further improve the exchange rate formation mechanism; to further open up and improve the financial system actively; healthy development of foreign trade, encourage foreign investment enterprises.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6

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本文編號(hào)：1376251