發(fā)布時間：2018-01-03 15:35

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國銀行業(yè)“暴利”分析及展望　出處：《西南財經(jīng)大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 上市商業(yè)銀行 暴利 可持續(xù)性 機遇

【摘要】：中國銀行業(yè)存不存在“暴利”?這樣的爭論和質(zhì)疑近年一直是金融界的熱門話題之一。這個問題也一直引起社會各界的激烈爭論與強烈關(guān)注。在最近的“兩會”期間,中國著名經(jīng)濟學家厲以寧指出,2013年中國經(jīng)濟最大的風險來自金融業(yè)。 世界經(jīng)濟增長放緩、國際貿(mào)易增速回落；中國經(jīng)濟改制轉(zhuǎn)型、由重數(shù)據(jù)向重質(zhì)量轉(zhuǎn)變；國際金融競爭加劇化、國內(nèi)融資渠道多元化、國內(nèi)外利率市場化,這一系列因素都深刻地影響我國的商業(yè)銀行。所以,研究“暴利”存在與否及其程度具有現(xiàn)實而深遠的意義。 最新統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2012年我國商業(yè)銀行累計實現(xiàn)凈利潤1.24萬億元,連續(xù)4年創(chuàng)歷史新高。這也再次刷新了中國銀行業(yè)的利潤紀錄,使得2012年成為銀行業(yè)史上最賺錢的一年。數(shù)據(jù)同時顯示,我國商業(yè)銀行凈利潤同比增長18.9%,相較于2011年的39.3%、2010年的34.5%大幅回落,已經(jīng)顯現(xiàn)出盈利能力下滑的趨勢。 中國銀行業(yè)有沒有“暴利”?不同的人,不同的利益集團,站在不同的角度會得出不同的結(jié)論,甚至是完全相反的結(jié)論。本文用大量的客觀事實及詳實的數(shù)據(jù)說明中國銀行業(yè)盈利能力方面的“暴利”存在與否。同時來展現(xiàn)中國的商業(yè)銀行盈利能力方面“暴利”的程度。 一、考慮到金融業(yè)的時效性強、變化性快的特點,本文選取了最近三個會計年度的財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)作為研究的對象,這樣不僅緊扣金融的時代脈搏,也充分反映宏觀經(jīng)濟運行對不同行業(yè)發(fā)展的客觀事實。選用了總資產(chǎn)、總利潤、凈利潤、凈資產(chǎn)收益率、營業(yè)利潤率等財務(wù)指標,這主要是因為他們對揭示“暴利水平”具有重要的說明意義,而且淺顯易懂。通過“三大對比”：①我國16家上市商業(yè)銀行與我國其他行業(yè)的“橫向?qū)Ρ取?得出“暴利”不是在所有行業(yè)存在；②我國16家上市商業(yè)銀行與香港、美國主要商業(yè)銀行的“縱向?qū)Ρ取?得出“暴利”不是在所有經(jīng)濟體的商業(yè)銀行存在；③我國16家上市商業(yè)銀行與滬深所有上市公司的“合計對比”,其用于揭示“暴利”的程度。 其方法是選取行業(yè)內(nèi)資產(chǎn)規(guī)�；痉�(wěn)定在前五位的公司,因為他們在行業(yè)內(nèi)影響力大、競爭力強、贏利性高。用這些知名度高且贏利性強的優(yōu)質(zhì)公司與我國的商業(yè)銀行做盈利能力對比,以此評判我國商業(yè)銀行“暴利水平”就更具說服力。通過“三大對比”,我們可以看出我國商業(yè)銀行確實存在“暴利”,其“暴利”程度無論是和我國其他行業(yè)相比,還是和香港、美國的同行業(yè)對比,以及滬深上市公司的合計對比都是比較突出的。 二、在“暴利”分析的基礎(chǔ)上,我們對商業(yè)銀行的盈利風險控制和利潤增長點的主要影響因素加以分析,從中反映出我國商業(yè)銀行所面臨的盈利風險以及機遇和挑戰(zhàn),從而為我國商業(yè)銀行有效化解風險、保持穩(wěn)定業(yè)績、實現(xiàn)優(yōu)質(zhì)發(fā)展、逐步走向國際提供有益的參考,進而為實現(xiàn)加快金融業(yè)改革開放促進經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變的目標(這是“十二五”對金融的要求目標)做出應(yīng)有的貢獻。 在“暴利”因素及潛在風險因素分析的基礎(chǔ)上,我們認識到,“暴利”是難以持久的,2012年我國銀行業(yè)盈利增長率下降的趨勢已初步顯現(xiàn)。文中主要通過以下方面揭示潛在風險因素： ①我國商業(yè)銀行凈利息收入與香港、美國發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體的商業(yè)銀行凈利息收入占經(jīng)營收入的比重相比較,通過對比,可以清楚地看出我國商業(yè)銀行凈利息收入占比過高,太過于依賴于傳統(tǒng)的銀行息差收入。同時也說明我國商業(yè)銀行的其他業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展規(guī)模不大,收入水平過低。這就容易產(chǎn)生系統(tǒng)性風險,一旦有系統(tǒng)風險發(fā)生就會導致行業(yè)利潤普遍下降,甚至倒閉一家而影響整個銀行業(yè)的高危風險。其次,可以看出我國商業(yè)銀行的凈利息收入占經(jīng)營收入的比重整體基本呈下降趨勢,而香港和美國的該比重卻有升有降。從中可以說明我國商業(yè)銀行的“暴利水平”是不可能長久和持續(xù)的,而提升手續(xù)費、傭金等其他非利息收入以增加利潤抵御風險是我國商業(yè)銀行的必由之路。 ②從房地產(chǎn)信貸規(guī)模進行分析,因為房地產(chǎn)信貸規(guī)模的高速擴張是我國商業(yè)銀行近年來主要的利潤增長點之一,也是主要風險之一。其核心風險是房地產(chǎn)產(chǎn)業(yè)是以犧牲長期經(jīng)濟增長來促進短期經(jīng)濟增長,是不可持續(xù)的。 ③從“影子銀行”對我國商業(yè)銀行利潤的重要影響及其風險性進行分析�！坝白鱼y行”具有在經(jīng)濟平穩(wěn)的時候,瓜分銀行的利潤;在經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型或者面臨風險的時候,將風險轉(zhuǎn)嫁給銀行的特性�！坝白鱼y行”對我國商業(yè)銀行利潤的影響歸根到底是因為“影子銀行”的絕大部分資金是來源于銀行,其中尤以地下錢莊、高利貸和信托產(chǎn)品的本金兌付風險最為突出。 ④從宏觀政策方面進行分析,分析的重點是“十八大”以后,從數(shù)量GDP到質(zhì)量GDP和GEP,從粗放型到節(jié)約環(huán)保型,從重數(shù)量增長到以人為本的美麗中國建設(shè)執(zhí)政理念及轉(zhuǎn)變職能、優(yōu)化結(jié)構(gòu)、調(diào)整產(chǎn)能構(gòu)思的經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型對于我國銀行業(yè)高盈利水平的影響。 ⑤從國際國內(nèi)(如；歐債危機、全球貨幣量化寬松、人民幣匯率等)其他方面分析。 三、圍繞上述問題,我們從商業(yè)銀行的經(jīng)營管理理論、主營業(yè)務(wù)等方面來探討化解風險、增加利潤的內(nèi)容和方法。主要有中美主要銀行營業(yè)收入來源的對比分析；負債業(yè)務(wù)及資產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù)分析；網(wǎng)絡(luò)銀行業(yè)務(wù)分析：中間業(yè)務(wù)分析；國際業(yè)務(wù)分析；金融創(chuàng)新方面分析,從而得出優(yōu)化資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)、穩(wěn)固傳統(tǒng)業(yè)務(wù)、創(chuàng)新新型業(yè)務(wù)、培養(yǎng)儲備人才、著眼長遠發(fā)展是化解風險,增加利潤的根本之道。 世界經(jīng)濟增長放緩、國際貿(mào)易增速回落；中國經(jīng)濟改制轉(zhuǎn)型,國際金融競爭加劇、國內(nèi)融資渠道多元化、國內(nèi)外利率市場化,這一系列因素都深刻地影響我國的商業(yè)銀行。其影響已經(jīng)顯示出我國銀行業(yè)利潤高速增長的“暴利水平”已經(jīng)日趨放緩,無論是來自于國外發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體的銀行業(yè)發(fā)展經(jīng)驗,還是源自于國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟高速增長中不同行業(yè)的發(fā)展歷史,都證明壟斷暴利是不可持續(xù)的。 四、鑒于我國商業(yè)銀行所面臨的盈利能力增長速度放緩的趨勢,我們對增長盈利控制風險進行了可行的系統(tǒng)性展望,古人云“塞翁失馬焉知非�！�,風險中面臨著挑戰(zhàn),挑戰(zhàn)中面臨著危機,危機中蘊含著機遇。所以,本文提出了以下幾個方面的結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化和前景展望,內(nèi)容主要有： (1)中國經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型中的機遇 ①“美麗中國”的提出以及城鎮(zhèn)化所帶來的機遇。我國的城鎮(zhèn)化率(指城鎮(zhèn)人口占總?cè)丝诘陌俜直?剛剛超過50%,而離歐美發(fā)達國家的80%還有20%以上的提升空間；按目前可比價格,城鎮(zhèn)化率每提高1%,可以新增投資需求6-7萬億,相當出口產(chǎn)品9-10萬億；同時每1%農(nóng)村人口轉(zhuǎn)入城市,可以拉動消費1100-1300億。投資-消費-出口,拉動經(jīng)濟增長的“三駕馬車”,都獲益匪淺,其意義不言而喻。 提高城鎮(zhèn)化不僅僅是促進經(jīng)濟增長的需要,同時城鎮(zhèn)化是轉(zhuǎn)方式、調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)、促改革的聚合點。一是有利于擴大內(nèi)需和投資。二是有利于區(qū)域經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化升級。三是促進戶籍制度、土地制度、收入分配制度、社會保障制度、投融資體制、基本公共服務(wù)體制等多方面的配套改革。這樣的戰(zhàn)略機遇,我國商業(yè)銀行當然要緊緊抓住,這不僅僅是金融的職能所在,而且其中蘊含著巨大的利潤空間,正是我國商業(yè)銀行實現(xiàn)利潤最大化目標的有力推手。 ②結(jié)構(gòu)改革職能轉(zhuǎn)變帶來經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中一些新的行業(yè)領(lǐng)域出現(xiàn)重大機遇。其中所涉及的一些主要領(lǐng)域：1.中央連續(xù)10年發(fā)布的“一號文件”中都聚焦“三農(nóng)”,農(nóng)業(yè)領(lǐng)域(土地確權(quán)、農(nóng)村公共服務(wù)投資、提高農(nóng)民收入等)所帶來的重大機遇；2.國家成立國家海洋局(不單單是政府部門整合,劍指我國島礁爭端,其中建設(shè)海洋強國,發(fā)展海洋經(jīng)濟才是更為長遠的考慮),“十二五”規(guī)劃中,海洋經(jīng)濟目標很明確,到2015年海洋經(jīng)濟要占GDP的10%以上；3.環(huán)保領(lǐng)域,PM2.5研究檢測數(shù)據(jù)的公布,以及去年冬天全國出現(xiàn)的長期多地霧霾天氣,讓國家和人民的環(huán)保意識普遍增強和空前提高,這將給環(huán)保領(lǐng)域產(chǎn)品升級,結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整等帶來巨大轉(zhuǎn)變。這些行業(yè)領(lǐng)域的重要影響和后續(xù)配套改革將對我國銀行業(yè)產(chǎn)生重要影響。 (2)金融創(chuàng)新方面,主要分析了金融思想領(lǐng)域的認識誤區(qū)和創(chuàng)新以及目前我國金融創(chuàng)新的可行領(lǐng)域。(3)金融人才的培養(yǎng)和儲備是未來商業(yè)銀行發(fā)展中的難點,也是競爭中占領(lǐng)優(yōu)勢的制高點。(4)轉(zhuǎn)變理念,從以“產(chǎn)品驅(qū)動”向以“客戶驅(qū)動”轉(zhuǎn)變。銀行產(chǎn)品推銷要滿足客戶需要,要根據(jù)市場環(huán)境變化而改變,為客戶提供解決問題的方案和辦法是銀行的責任；銀行要協(xié)調(diào)、調(diào)動各方面的資源為客戶提供服務(wù)等。 由于所研究的課題比較新,可供參考的文獻并不多,以及本人水平的限制,文章中有些問題未能做深入探討,文字、結(jié)構(gòu)乃至研究方法都有值得推敲的地方,希望得到老師們的批評和指正!
[Abstract]:Chinese banking exists or not "profiteering"? Such arguments and questions in recent years has been one of the hot topics in the financial field. This problem has been hotly debated in all sectors of society and attention. In the recent "NPC and CPPCC" period, the famous economist Li Yining Chinese pointed out that in 2013 Chinese economy the biggest risk from the financial sector.
The slowdown in world economic growth, international trade growth rate dropped Chinese; economic restructuring, transformation from the data to the quality; the international financial competition, the diversification of financing channels, the domestic and foreign interest rate market, this series of factors have a profound impact on China's commercial bank. Therefore, research on the existence of "profiteering" and the degree of realistic and far-reaching significance.
The latest statistics show that in 2012 China's commercial banks total net profit of 1 trillion and 240 billion yuan, a record high for 4 consecutive years. It also once again refresh the China banking profit record, making 2012 the bank industry in the history of the most profitable year. The data also showed that China's commercial banks net profit rose 18.9% compared to 39.3% in 2011, 34.5% in 2010 fell sharply, has shown a decline in the profitability trend.
Chinese banks have "profiteering"? Different people, different interest groups, from different angles have different conclusions, or even completely opposite conclusions. In this paper, with a large number of facts and detailed data shows that China banking profitability "profits" at the same time to exist or not. Show Chinese commercial bank profitability "profiteering".
First, considering the timeliness of financial industry, changes of fast, this paper chooses the financial data of the last three fiscal year as the research object, which not only closely linked to the financial times, also reflects the macroeconomic objective facts of different industry development. The total assets, total profit, net profit, return on net assets, financial indicators of operating profit rate, this is mainly because they have important significance to reveal that the "profits", but also easy to understand. The "three big contrast: 16 listed commercial banks in China and other sectors of the" horizontal contrast "," profits obtained "not at all exist in the industry; the 16 listed commercial banks in China and the United States of Hongkong, the main commercial banks" longitudinal comparison ", that is not" profiteering "in all economies of commercial banks in China; the 16 The "aggregate comparison" between the listed commercial banks and all listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen has been used to reveal the degree of "profit".
The method is to select asset size within the industry is basically stable in the top five companies, because of their influence in the industry, strong competitiveness, profitability is high. Do the profitability compared with these high visibility and strong earnings quality, and the Commercial Bank of our country, in order to judge China's commercial banks' profits level "more convincing." three by contrast, we can see that there is indeed profiteering "of China's commercial banks, the degree of" profiteering "whether it is compared with other industries in China, or Hongkong, compared with the industry in the United States, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen listed companies are more prominent in total contrast.
Two, based on "profiteering" analysis, analyzed main influencing factors of our earnings risk control and profit growth point of commercial banks, reflecting China's commercial banks face the risk of profit as well as opportunities and challenges in China's commercial banks, so as to effectively resolve the risk, stable performance, achieve development of high quality, to provide a useful reference for the international, and accelerate the reform and opening up the financial sector to promote the transformation of the mode of economic development goals (this is "12th Five-Year" on the financial requirements of the target) and make due contributions.
Based on the analysis of the factors and potential risk factors, we realize that "profiteering" is not sustainable. In 2012, the trend of China's banking profit growth rate has initially appeared.
The our country Commercial Bank net interest income and Hongkong, the United States developed economies of the commercial bank net interest income accounted for the proportion of operating income compared, by comparison, we can clearly see that China's commercial banks net interest income ratio is too high, too dependent on traditional bank interest income. At the same time also shows that China's commercial the bank's business development, small scale, low income level. It is prone to systemic risk, once the system risk will lead to industry profits decline, even the failure of one of the whole Gao Weifeng banking risks. Secondly, we can see that the net interest income of commercial banks in China accounted for the proportion of the overall operating income a downward trend, while the proportion of Hongkong and the United States have decreased. From that of China's commercial banks' profits level "is not possible for a long time and sustained, and enhance Other non interest income, such as commission, commission and other non interest income, is the only way for Chinese commercial banks to resist risk.
The analysis from the real estate credit scale, because of the rapid expansion of the real estate credit scale of commercial banks in China in recent years, one of the major profit growth point, is one of the main risk. The risk is the core of real estate industry is to promote short-term economic growth at the expense of long-term economic growth is not sustainable.
The analysis from the "shadow banking" of China's commercial bank profit and risk. The influence of the "shadow banking" is when the economy is stable, divide the profits of banks; at the time of economic transformation or risk, risk characteristics to the bank. "Shadow banking" of China's commercial the bank profit after all is because the vast majority of shadow banking funds from the bank, especially in the underground banks, usury and trust products principal payment risk is most prominent.
The analysis from the macro policy, the analysis is focused on the "big eighteen", from GDP to GDP and GEP quality, from the extensive to the saving and environment-friendly, quantity growth to the beautiful China construction people-oriented governing philosophy and the transformation of functions, optimize the structure, adjustment of production can influence the economic transformation idea for our country the high level of profitability of the banking industry.
From the international and domestic (such as the European debt crisis, the global monetary quantitative easing, the RMB exchange rate, etc.) other aspects of analysis.
Three, we focus on the above problems, from the commercial bank management theory, the main business to explore such risks and increase profits. The contents and methods of comparative analysis are the main source of revenue for us bank liabilities business and assets business; analysis; analysis of network banking intermediary business analysis; international business analysis; the analysis of financial innovation, so that optimize the asset structure, stable traditional business and new business innovation, training of talents, focus on long-term development is the fundamental way to resolve the risk, to increase profit.
The slowdown in world economic growth, international trade growth rate dropped; China economic restructuring, worsening international financial competition, the diversification of financing channels, the domestic and foreign interest rate market, this series of factors have a profound impact on China's commercial banks. Its influence has shown rapid growth of China's banking industry "profiteering" has become increasingly slow down, whether the banking industry development experience from developed economies, or from the historical development of different industries the rapid growth of the domestic economy, that monopoly profits is not sustainable.
Four, in view of China's commercial banks face the profitability growth rate slowed the trend, we discussed the system feasible to control the risk of earnings growth, the ancients said "a blessing in disguise", the risk of facing challenges, the challenges facing the crisis, the crisis contains opportunities. Therefore, this dissertation puts forward prospect structure optimization and Prospect of the following is the main content:
(1) opportunities in China's economic transformation
"Beautiful Chinese" is put forward and the opportunity of urbanization. The urbanization rate in China (urban population refers to the percentage of the total population) just over 50%, from the developed countries of Europe and more than 20% of the 80% promotion space; according to the current price, the urbanization rate increased by 1% per can. New investment demand 6-7 trillion, equivalent exports 9-10 trillion; at the same time, each of the 1% rural population into the city, can stimulate consumption of 1100-1300 million. The investment consumption and export, to promote economic growth in the "three carriages", have benefited, its meaning is self-evident.
To improve the urbanization is not only the need to promote economic growth, and urbanization is the transfer mode, adjust the structure, aggregation point to promote reform. One is conducive to the expansion of domestic demand and investment. Two is conducive to the optimization of regional economic structure and industrial structure upgrade. The three is to promote the household registration system, land system, income distribution system, social security system, investment and financing system reform, the basic public service system and other aspects of the strategic opportunity. So, China's commercial banks should seize, this is not only the financial functions, which contains a huge profit space, is a powerful force for Chinese commercial banks to realize the profit maximization.
The change of structure reform brings some new industries in the economic development of major opportunities. Some of the main areas involved: 1. central 10 consecutive years issued the document will focus on the "three rural" (agriculture land ownership, rural public service investment, increasing the income of peasants) major opportunities the 2. countries; the establishment of the State Oceanic Administration (not only is the government department at China's integration, reefs disputes, including construction of marine power, the development of marine economy is a more long-term consideration), "12th Five-Year" plan, the marine economy has a clear goal, more than 2015 to marine economy accounts for 10% of GDP; 3. in the field of environmental protection, PM2.5 announced on testing data, and the last winter appears long more haze, let the country and the people's awareness of environmental protection and generally enhance the unprecedented increase, which will give the field of environmental protection. The important impact of these industries and the follow-up reforms will have an important impact on our banking industry.
(2) financial innovation, mainly analyzes the financial ideology misunderstanding and innovation and the financial innovation in China is feasible. (3) training and reserve talent is the financial difficulties in the future in the development of commercial banks, also occupied the advantage of market competition. (4) to change the idea, from the "products drive" to "customer driven. To satisfy the customer needs to sell bank products, to change according to the changing market environment, to provide customers with solutions and solutions to the problem is the responsibility of the bank; bank to coordinate, mobilize resources to provide services to customers.
Because the research subjects are relatively new, there are not many references available, as well as the limitation of my level. Some problems in the article have not been explored thoroughly. There are worth to be deliberate in the text, structure and research methods, hoping to get the criticism and correction of teachers.

【學位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.3;F830.42

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