本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國存款準(zhǔn)備金率與鑄幣稅研究：1985-2012　出處：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 存款準(zhǔn)備金率 鑄幣稅 通貨膨脹率 貨幣供給增長率 基礎(chǔ)貨幣

【摘要】：鑄幣稅常與貨幣擴張,財政赤字貨幣化相聯(lián)系在一起,是一個日益受到眾多學(xué)者關(guān)注并研究的宏觀經(jīng)濟問題。對鑄幣稅的來源和用途進(jìn)行分析,并且測算我國鑄幣稅的規(guī)模,將能更好的理解鑄幣稅并且分析其對我國經(jīng)濟的重要性。而存款準(zhǔn)備金率政策是我國三大貨幣政策工具之一,且使用較為頻繁,研究中國存款準(zhǔn)備金率與鑄幣稅之間的關(guān)系,可以發(fā)現(xiàn)貨幣政策對一國重要財政融資來源—鑄幣稅的影響,將為我國未來的貨幣政策的制定與執(zhí)行提供更有效的建議,且對將來鑄幣稅的研究開拓了一個更綜合的分析視角。 本文首先從來源和使用途徑兩個角度對鑄幣稅進(jìn)行了理論分析,根據(jù)1985年至2012年我國的數(shù)據(jù),對總鑄幣稅以及各個組成部分進(jìn)行了測算,并對變化趨勢給予了分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)存款準(zhǔn)備金率,基礎(chǔ)貨幣,非政府債務(wù)投資及對應(yīng)的收益率,價格水平,對中央政府債務(wù)的投資等因素都會對鑄幣稅產(chǎn)生影響。接著通過分析一個具有企業(yè)、家庭和銀行三部門的經(jīng)濟,推導(dǎo)出處于均衡狀態(tài)時的通貨膨脹率和經(jīng)濟增長率,在設(shè)定貨幣需求函數(shù)為卡甘模型之后,推導(dǎo)出均衡的通貨膨脹稅,并通過數(shù)學(xué)推導(dǎo)來判斷存款準(zhǔn)備金率和貨幣供給增長率對通貨膨脹率以及通貨膨脹稅的影響。接著,基于我國實際經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù),對通貨膨脹鑄幣稅,總的存款準(zhǔn)備金率,貨幣供給增速以及國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值進(jìn)行實證檢驗,通過協(xié)整檢驗得出關(guān)系等式,并通過脈沖響應(yīng)對變量間的關(guān)系給出了進(jìn)一步的分析�？紤]到存款準(zhǔn)備金率的變動會一國經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)的影響,通過模擬存款準(zhǔn)備金率變動對鑄幣稅收入的影響,將會更全面的了解兩者之間的關(guān)系,并且發(fā)現(xiàn)存款準(zhǔn)備金率的上升對鑄幣稅收入產(chǎn)生先負(fù)面后正面的影響。最后,本文總結(jié)了各個部分的觀點,并對我國未來鑄幣稅研究以及宏觀貨幣政策方面提出了若干建議。 通過本文的研究,實際測算發(fā)現(xiàn)：我國的鑄幣稅從規(guī)模上看對我國經(jīng)濟的重要性與日俱增,從其組成部分看,存款準(zhǔn)備金率等各類因素的變動都會對其產(chǎn)生一定影響,未來需要綜合分析,才能加深對鑄幣稅的理解從而更好地應(yīng)用鑄幣稅。而從通貨膨脹鑄幣稅,存款準(zhǔn)備金率,貨幣供給增速以及GDP的實證檢驗看出,存款準(zhǔn)備金率的變動將對通貨膨脹鑄幣稅產(chǎn)生負(fù)面的影響,而貨幣供給增速以及GDP和通貨膨脹稅之間存在著正相關(guān)的關(guān)系。從存款準(zhǔn)備金率對鑄幣稅收入的模擬影響發(fā)現(xiàn),如果存款準(zhǔn)備金率能夠從0%不斷上調(diào)至100%,鑄幣稅收入會呈現(xiàn)出現(xiàn)先下降后上升的趨勢,由于一般國家在調(diào)整存款準(zhǔn)備金率時,變化方向以及變化幅度都較小,這使得存款準(zhǔn)備金率和鑄幣稅的關(guān)系處于負(fù)相關(guān)區(qū)域。因此建議未來在制定相關(guān)宏觀貨幣政策時,也同時考慮存款準(zhǔn)備金率變動對鑄幣稅收入的影響,通過加強公開市場操作等,搭配使用多種貨幣政策工具,來促使我國經(jīng)濟更加平穩(wěn)良好運行。
[Abstract]:Seigniorage and monetary expansion, fiscal deficits are linked together, is an increasingly affected by macroeconomic issues. Many scholars and sources and uses of seigniorage is analyzed, and the calculation of Chinese seigniorage scale, will have a better understanding of Seigniorage and analyzes its importance to our country economy. And the deposit reserve rate policy is one of China's three major monetary policy tools, and more frequent use, the study of the relationship between the deposit reserve rate Chinese and Seigniorage, monetary policy can be found to influence the source of seigniorage on important financial financing of a country, will provide more effective suggestions for the formulation and implementation of me in the future monetary policy, and for future research on seigniorage to develop a more comprehensive perspective.
Firstly, from the perspective of two sources and ways of using of seigniorage is analyzed, according to the 1985 to 2012 China's data on total Seigniorage and the various components were calculated, and the tendency to give the analysis, found that the deposit reserve ratio, monetary base, rate of return, investment and non government debt the corresponding price level factors on central government debt investment will have an impact on seigniorage. Then through the analysis of a family enterprise, and banks in three sectors of the economy in equilibrium, inflation rate and economic growth rate is derived, in the setting of monetary demand function model for Kagan after push the derived equilibrium inflation tax, and through mathematical derivation to determine the deposit reserve ratio and the growth rate of the money supply on inflation rate and the inflation tax. Then, based on the reality of our country economy The data on inflation seigniorage, the total deposit reserve rate, the growth rate of the money supply and the gross domestic product of empirical testing, through the cointegration test relation equation, and the impulse response of the relationship among the variables analyzed. Considering the deposit reserve rate changes will have a far-reaching impact of a country's economy through the simulation, the deposit reserve rate changes on seigniorage income, will be more comprehensive understanding of the relationship between the two, and found that the deposit reserve rate rise after the positive negative influence to the seigniorage income. Finally, this paper summarizes the various parts of the view, and puts forward some suggestions for future study on the tax I China and the macro monetary policy.
Through this study, the actual estimates that China's Seigniorage in terms of size importance to China's economy grow with each passing day from parts, all kinds of factors, changes in the deposit reserve rate will have a certain impact on the future, the need for a comprehensive analysis, in order to deepen the understanding of Seigniorage and better the application of Seigniorage and inflation. From seigniorage, the deposit reserve rate, the growth rate of the money supply and GDP empirical test shows that changes in the deposit reserve ratio will have a negative impact on inflation and Seigniorage, money supply growth has a positive relationship between the speed and the GDP and the inflation tax. From the simulation of the effects of deposit reserve rate the seigniorage income, if the deposit reserve rate to 0% from rising to 100%, Seigniorage revenues will show upward trend after the first drop, due to a country in Adjust the deposit reserve rate, change direction and change range is smaller, which makes the relationship between the deposit reserve ratio and Seigniorage in negative related areas. Therefore in the formulation of relevant recommendations for future monetary policy, but also consider the deposit reserve rate changes on tax revenue by strengthening the mint, open market operation, using a variety of collocation monetary policy tools to promote China's economy more stable and good operation.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F822.0;F812.42

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本文編號：1368648