發(fā)布時間：2018-01-02 07:19

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：外匯占款影響我國貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)問題研究　出處：《浙江工商大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 外匯占款 貨幣政策傳導(dǎo) 貨幣供應(yīng) 貨幣政策工具 貨幣乘數(shù) Shibor

【摘要】：2002年以來,由于國際收支雙順差和人民幣升值預(yù)期,外資大量流入,外匯占款的問題嚴(yán)重的影響了我國貨幣政策的實施,外匯占款已經(jīng)成為我國貨幣供給增加最重要的渠道。因此,我國的貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)也出現(xiàn)了一些獨具特色的設(shè)計,如央行票據(jù)(簡稱央票)成為公開市場最有活力的工具,存款準(zhǔn)備金率的調(diào)整發(fā)揮了重要作用。本文將考察外匯占款如何對貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)產(chǎn)生影響,一是為了將外匯占款這些年來對我國貨幣政策運行環(huán)境的影響進行系統(tǒng)梳理,二是為貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)渠道的改革提供分析基礎(chǔ)。 本文共分為五章,第一章是引言,對文章的研究背景意義、框架等進行了簡要介紹。第二章比較了外匯占款的2種口徑,解釋了外匯占款的形成原因和主要來源,并對我國的貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)渠道進行了介紹。 在第三章,論文詳細分析了外匯占款對我國貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)渠道各個環(huán)節(jié)的影響,按照傳導(dǎo)渠道作用順序,先后從貨幣政策工具(公開市場業(yè)務(wù)、法定準(zhǔn)備金率、再貸款再貼現(xiàn)),到操作目標(biāo)(基礎(chǔ)貨幣、貨幣市場基準(zhǔn)利率),最后到中介目標(biāo)(廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量、Shibor利率)進行分析。得到了4點結(jié)論。首先,因為外匯占款成為貨幣供給主渠道,我國中央銀行貨幣政策操作工具的運用從主動投放基礎(chǔ)貨幣變?yōu)楸粍記_銷外匯占款。其次,為了沖銷大量、持續(xù)的外匯占款增加,我國貨幣政策變動過度依賴央行票據(jù)發(fā)行和法定存款準(zhǔn)備金率的頻繁調(diào)整,忽視了再貸款再貼現(xiàn)工具的價值。這種被動調(diào)整帶來的結(jié)果是,一旦外資流量減小,外匯占款不再頻繁增加,銀行體系流動性不再寬裕時,會對貨幣市場形成短期沖擊,引發(fā)市場波動。再次,外匯占款影響了基礎(chǔ)貨幣總量和增量結(jié)構(gòu),使我國的基礎(chǔ)貨幣供給存在很強的內(nèi)生性特征。當(dāng)然,外匯占款持續(xù)增加背景下,我國央行票據(jù)市場逐漸趨于成熟,央行票據(jù)發(fā)行利率成為貨幣市場基準(zhǔn)利率之一。最后,論文還從兩個角度對外匯占款對M2的影響進行了闡述：一方面,它改變了M2的總量和增量結(jié)構(gòu)；另一方面,筆者根據(jù)M2=MB*MM,從外匯占款對M2影響的第二個渠道——M2乘數(shù)角度進行了理論分析,這也對我國M2迅速增加的現(xiàn)象給出了解釋。 第四章對外匯占款的影響進行了實證數(shù)據(jù)驗證和分析。第一節(jié)首先驗證了外匯占款對我國貨幣乘數(shù)的影響渠道和影響系數(shù)。得到的結(jié)論是：外匯占款通過影響中央銀行資產(chǎn)負債表的結(jié)構(gòu)來改變貨幣乘數(shù)。我們發(fā)現(xiàn),凈國外資產(chǎn)占總資產(chǎn)的比重越高,貨幣乘數(shù)越高；央行票據(jù)占總資產(chǎn)比重越高,貨幣乘數(shù)越高。在第二節(jié)中,筆者將外匯占款對未來的貨幣市場基準(zhǔn)利率——Shibor——的影響進行了長期協(xié)整分析和VAR脈沖檢驗和方差分解。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),外匯占款對Shibor的影響不顯著,這一方面體現(xiàn)出我國中央銀行沖銷的效果,另一方面也顯示了Shibor利率長期的穩(wěn)定性。外匯占款對Shibor的影響主要是間接的通過法定準(zhǔn)備金率、定期存款利率和央行票據(jù)發(fā)行利率實現(xiàn)的。從長、短期的實證分析結(jié)果來看,法定存款準(zhǔn)備金率的變化對Shibor的影響主要集中在短期,而存款利率和利率差對Shibor的影響則是以長期為主。 在第五章,論文對外匯占款對貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)的影響進行了總結(jié),認為外匯占款從兩個方面對我國貨幣政策的傳導(dǎo)產(chǎn)生了影響。一方面,外匯占款通過影響基礎(chǔ)貨幣和貨幣乘數(shù)加大了中央銀行調(diào)控M2的難度,使“數(shù)量型”貨幣政策目標(biāo)的可控性減弱；另一方面,外匯占款通過央行票據(jù)發(fā)行利率等因素間接對貨幣市場利率的大小產(chǎn)生影響,使我國貨幣政策初具“價格型”傳導(dǎo)渠道的特征�？傮w來說,外匯占款改變了我國的貨幣政策運行環(huán)境,使貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)渠道從“數(shù)量型”向“價格型”轉(zhuǎn)變。針對前文得出的分析結(jié)論,本文提出了相應(yīng)的三點建議。
[Abstract]:Since 2002, due to the double surplus of international payments and the expected appreciation of the RMB, foreign capital inflows, foreign exchange problems seriously affect the implementation of China's monetary policy, foreign exchange has become China's most important channels to increase the money supply. Therefore, China's monetary policy transmission also appeared in a number of unique design. If the central bank bills (referred to as the central open market) become the most dynamic tool, the deposit reserve rate adjustment has played an important role. This paper will examine how the foreign exchange impact on monetary policy transmission, one is for the system sort out the effects on the operating environment of China's monetary policy of foreign exchange in these years is two provide a basis for the analysis of the reform of the monetary policy transmission channel.
This paper is divided into five chapters, the first chapter is the introduction of the research background, significance, framework were introduced briefly. The second chapter compares 2 kinds of foreign exchange caliber, explains the causes and main sources of foreign exchange, and China's monetary policy transmission channels are introduced.
In the third chapter, the paper detailed analysis of the impact of foreign exchange on all aspects of China's monetary policy transmission channels, according to the channel sequence, successively from the monetary policy instruments (open market operations, reserve requirements, refinancing, rediscount) to operation target (the benchmark interest rate base currency, money market), and finally to the intermediate target (the broad money supply, interest rate Shibor) were analyzed. 4 conclusions. First, because foreign exchange has become a main channel of money supply, using the operating tool of China Central Bank monetary policy from the active base money into passive offsetting foreign exchange reserves. Secondly, in order to offset a continued increase in foreign exchange frequent, change and adjustment of monetary policy in China over reliance on the issue of central bank bills and the statutory deposit reserve rate, ignoring the refinancing and rediscount value. This kind of passive adjustment. The fruit is, once the foreign exchange flow is reduced, no longer frequent increased liquidity in the banking system is no longer good, will form a short-term impact on the currency market, lead to market volatility. Thirdly, foreign exchange affect the monetary base total and incremental structure, so that China's base money supply endogenous features very strong. Of course under the background, foreign exchange continued to increase, China's central bank bill market is gradually maturing, the central bank bill rate has become one of the benchmark interest rate in money market. Finally, the paper also from two perspectives on the impact of foreign exchange on the M2 is discussed in this paper: on the one hand, it changes the total amount of M2 and incremental structure; on the other hand, according to M2=MB*MM, a theoretical analysis from the second channels of impact of foreign exchange on the M2 of the M2 multiplier, which also increases rapidly on the M2 in China were also explained.
The fourth chapter on the foreign exchange for empirical data validation and analysis. The first section is verified on China's foreign exchange currency multiplier effect channel and effect coefficient. The conclusion is: to change the foreign exchange currency multiplier structure through the effect of central bank balance sheet. We found that the net foreign assets to total assets the higher the proportion of the money multiplier is higher; the proportion of total assets of the central bank bill is high, the money multiplier is higher. In the second section, the impact of foreign exchange on the future money market benchmark interest rate -- the Shibor -- the long-term cointegration analysis and VAR pulse test and variance decomposition. The results showed that the impact of foreign exchange exchange on the Shibor is not significant, which reflects China's central bank sterilization effect, on the other hand also shows the stability of Shibor interest rates for a long time. The impact of foreign exchange on the Shibor Is mainly indirectly by the statutory reserve ratio, deposit interest rate and the interest rate the central bank bills issued from the long, short-term analysis of empirical results, changes in statutory deposit reserve rate of Shibor mainly concentrated in the short term, while the deposit rate and the interest rate differential effect on Shibor is based on the long term.
In the fifth chapter, the impact of foreign exchange on the conduct of monetary policy are summarized, that the foreign exchange impact from the two aspects of China's monetary policy transmission. On the one hand, the central bank foreign exchange increased the difficulty of regulation of M2 by influencing the monetary base and money multiplier and the controllability of the quantity "the goal of monetary policy is weakened; on the other hand, the foreign exchange rate through the issuance of central bank bills and other factors indirectly on money market interest rates, the size of the influence, the characteristics of China's monetary policy has the" price "channel. In general, foreign exchange has changed China's monetary policy environment, the channels of monetary transmission the policy change from" quantity "to" price ". According to the conclusion obtained, this paper puts forward three suggestions accordingly.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.52;F822.0

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