本文關(guān)鍵詞：日本“藏匯于民”對(duì)中國的啟示　出處：《東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：自2006年2月首度超過日本以來,我國的外匯儲(chǔ)備數(shù)量已連續(xù)數(shù)年穩(wěn)居世界第一,并且保持著每年數(shù)千億美元的增長(zhǎng)速度持續(xù)積累。連續(xù)多年的經(jīng)常賬戶和資本賬戶順差是我國外匯收入的主要來源,而人民幣升值趨勢(shì)及我國良好的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展勢(shì)頭也吸引著大量國際游資進(jìn)入,成為外匯收入的又一來源；此外,我國自從1994年外匯管理體制改革以來確立的銀行結(jié)售匯制是將我國獲得的巨額外匯收入轉(zhuǎn)化為外匯儲(chǔ)備的重要制度性因素。 對(duì)于中國而言,規(guī)模巨大的外匯儲(chǔ)備是一把“雙刃劍”。其積極影響有：巨額外匯儲(chǔ)備增強(qiáng)了我國的綜合國力,提高了我國的國際清償能力和國際資信,進(jìn)一步提升了我國對(duì)外商投資與對(duì)外融資的吸引力；增強(qiáng)了我國應(yīng)對(duì)國際金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和突發(fā)事件的實(shí)力與對(duì)外匯市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行干預(yù)的能力,有利于維護(hù)國家金融安全；為人民幣最終實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目下的可自由兌換創(chuàng)造了必要條件。然而,近年來超常增長(zhǎng)的外匯儲(chǔ)備也帶來了一些負(fù)面影響。一是外匯市場(chǎng)上外幣供過于求導(dǎo)致人民幣升值的國際壓力不斷加大從而抑制了我國對(duì)外貿(mào)易的增長(zhǎng)；二是規(guī)模越來越大的外匯儲(chǔ)備加重了央行的沖銷壓力,外匯占款的增大影響了基礎(chǔ)貨幣的投放,制約貨幣政策的有效性；而央行為維持人民幣匯率穩(wěn)定而增發(fā)貨幣導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)中流動(dòng)性過剩,加劇了國內(nèi)的通貨膨脹壓力與資本市場(chǎng)泡沫；三是增加了儲(chǔ)備成本與匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。由于我國巨額外匯儲(chǔ)備的投資以安全性與流動(dòng)性為主導(dǎo)原則,因此主要投資于美國國債等美元資產(chǎn),尤其在美國政府為應(yīng)對(duì)次貸危機(jī)而實(shí)行數(shù)輪量化寬松政策的背景下,我國外匯儲(chǔ)備面臨著巨大的匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 國內(nèi)外學(xué)術(shù)界近年來有大量關(guān)于我國外匯儲(chǔ)備的研究,對(duì)我國外匯儲(chǔ)備不斷積累的原因、效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了深入的探討并提出了許多應(yīng)對(duì)巨額外匯儲(chǔ)備的政策建議。但是這些文獻(xiàn)主要是從轉(zhuǎn)變巨額外匯儲(chǔ)備資產(chǎn)運(yùn)作方式的角度提出解決方案,比如調(diào)整外匯儲(chǔ)備的幣種結(jié)構(gòu)與資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)、借鑒國際經(jīng)驗(yàn)成立國家外匯投資公司或改革當(dāng)前我國對(duì)外匯儲(chǔ)備進(jìn)行管理的單層體制、將外匯儲(chǔ)備轉(zhuǎn)化為黃金、石油、礦產(chǎn)等實(shí)物資產(chǎn)或戰(zhàn)略資產(chǎn)方案、將外匯儲(chǔ)備注資國有商業(yè)銀行與社�；鸱桨傅�,其中也有學(xué)者響應(yīng)吳曉靈副行長(zhǎng)提出的“藏匯于民”的建議而提出自己的見解。但對(duì)于借鑒與我國外匯儲(chǔ)備增長(zhǎng)情況相似的日本的經(jīng)驗(yàn),實(shí)現(xiàn)中國從“藏匯于國”向“藏匯于民”的轉(zhuǎn)變,較少有文獻(xiàn)詳細(xì)提及。 本文針對(duì)我國長(zhǎng)期實(shí)行的“藏匯于國”的外匯管理政策及其造成的外匯儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大帶來的消極影響,通過研究日本成功貫徹“藏匯于民”戰(zhàn)略的經(jīng)驗(yàn),立足于我國的現(xiàn)實(shí)情況,從我國匯率形成機(jī)制、金融市場(chǎng)、外匯法律法規(guī)三個(gè)層面提出中國為實(shí)現(xiàn)從“藏匯于國”向“藏匯于民”的轉(zhuǎn)變應(yīng)該采取的詳細(xì)對(duì)策,為我國更深入的推進(jìn)“藏匯于民”提供強(qiáng)有力的理論依據(jù)與政策指導(dǎo)。鑒于導(dǎo)致我國外匯資產(chǎn)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的源頭在短期內(nèi)難以改變,全方位多角度地深入研究我國如何在保證外匯市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定的前提下促進(jìn)“藏匯于民”,從而提高外匯資產(chǎn)的收益率就顯得越發(fā)的重要和緊迫�！安貐R于民”對(duì)于調(diào)整我國“寬進(jìn)嚴(yán)出”的外匯政策取向,從政策源頭上解決外匯儲(chǔ)備過快的增長(zhǎng)具有重要意義。從而有助于緩解人民幣升值和通貨膨脹的壓力,以及恢復(fù)貨幣政策的獨(dú)立性。并且對(duì)于刺激居民消費(fèi)以及我國金融機(jī)構(gòu)參與國際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的現(xiàn)實(shí)需要,都將發(fā)揮積極作用。 最后,文章得出結(jié)論：“藏匯于民”政策并不是政府“一廂情愿”就可以順利實(shí)施的。當(dāng)前,人民幣不斷升值、外匯投資渠道相對(duì)單調(diào)、民間外匯投資經(jīng)驗(yàn)不足等障礙無疑會(huì)抑制民間持匯、用匯的積極性,從而阻礙“藏匯于民”政策發(fā)揮作用。從這個(gè)角度講,本文中提出的三個(gè)建議能夠緩解民間對(duì)政府“藏匯于民”的排斥,消除民間保留外匯、使用外匯的后顧之憂,進(jìn)而真正實(shí)現(xiàn)“藏匯于民”和“藏富于民”。
[Abstract]:Since the first of February 2006 , our country ' s foreign exchange reserves have been steadily in the world for several years , and the annual growth rate of tens of millions of dollars has been accumulated annually . For many years , the surplus of current account and capital account is the main source of foreign exchange income in our country , and the trend of RMB appreciation and the favorable economic development trend of our country have attracted a lot of international capital to enter and become another source of foreign exchange income ; moreover , the bank settlement and sales system established since the reform of the foreign exchange management system in 1994 is an important institutional factor to transform the huge foreign exchange income obtained by our country into foreign exchange reserve . In the case of China , the large - scale foreign exchange reserve is a " double - edged sword " . Its positive influence is : the huge foreign exchange reserve enhances our country ' s comprehensive national strength , enhances our country ' s international liquidity and international credit , and further promotes China ' s foreign investment and foreign financing . In recent years , there has been a great deal of research on foreign exchange reserves in China , and the reasons and effects of the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in China have been discussed in depth and many policy suggestions to deal with the huge foreign exchange reserves have been put forward . However , these documents are mainly derived from the transformation of the currency structure and asset structure of the foreign exchange reserve , the establishment of the national foreign exchange investment company or the reform of the current China ' s foreign exchange reserve fund scheme , and the foreign exchange reserve into the state - owned commercial bank and the social security fund scheme . In view of the negative influence of foreign exchange management policy and the expanding scale of foreign exchange reserve caused by China ' s long - term practice , this paper points out the important and urgent need of China to promote the change of foreign exchange assets from the source of policy . Finally , the article concludes that the policy of " Tibetan foreign exchange " can be implemented smoothly without government ' s " one - sided " policy . Currently , obstacles such as RMB appreciation , relatively monotonous foreign exchange investment channel and insufficient experience of private foreign exchange investment will undoubtedly inhibit the role of " Tibetan foreign exchange in the people " . From this point of view , the three suggestions put forward in this paper can alleviate the government ' s rejection of the government ' s collection of foreign exchange , eliminate the worries of foreign exchange and use foreign exchange , and thus truly realize the " collection of the people " and " hidden rich in the people " .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F833.13;F832.6

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