發(fā)布時(shí)間：2017-12-31 15:21

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：CAFTA框架下人民幣跨境流通研究　出處：《天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 人民幣 跨境流通 中國(guó)-東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)

【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),綜合國(guó)力的提升,在區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易中地位不斷提高,人民幣跨境流通規(guī)模和范圍進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大。人民幣境外規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大促進(jìn)了人民幣國(guó)際貨幣職能的深化,人民幣作為區(qū)域貨幣的影響力已經(jīng)顯現(xiàn)。 2010年中國(guó)-東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)(CAFTA)正式成立,這不僅使中國(guó)與東盟國(guó)家間的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展揭開(kāi)新的篇章,而且使人民幣區(qū)域化進(jìn)入更有利的發(fā)展框架之中。借助CAFTA的貿(mào)易平臺(tái)效應(yīng),人民幣在東盟國(guó)家的流通量快速增長(zhǎng),有效地補(bǔ)充了國(guó)際結(jié)算的需要；同時(shí),人民幣的跨境流通在高度貨幣化的當(dāng)今社會(huì)會(huì)導(dǎo)致各種要素和資源的跨境配置,進(jìn)而對(duì)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)、區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)乃至世界經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生重要作用。一方面,在CAFTA框架下人民幣的境外流通有利于促進(jìn)我國(guó)與東盟國(guó)家的對(duì)外貿(mào)易,有利于我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,在區(qū)域范圍內(nèi)優(yōu)化資源配置；有利于我國(guó)出口企業(yè)規(guī)避匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn),使我國(guó)獲得鑄幣稅收益；有利于提高我國(guó)商業(yè)銀行的國(guó)際化經(jīng)營(yíng)水平和人民幣國(guó)際地位的提高。另一方面,人民幣的跨境流通由于監(jiān)測(cè)缺位,對(duì)我國(guó)邊境省區(qū)的金融穩(wěn)定可能造成沖擊,加大我國(guó)海關(guān)監(jiān)管的難度。人民幣跨境流通大規(guī)模發(fā)展起來(lái)后,金融市場(chǎng)上利率和匯率的微小變化都有可能引起人民幣的大規(guī)模流動(dòng),國(guó)際游資也可能趁機(jī)滲透進(jìn)來(lái)。這種逐利資本的流動(dòng)一般都具有順周期的特性,這與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)控的逆周期性相悖,大大增加了我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)控的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和成本。目前,在CAFTA框架下,我們應(yīng)該借助有利形勢(shì),進(jìn)一步促進(jìn)我國(guó)和東盟國(guó)家的邊境貿(mào)易,保持人民幣匯率穩(wěn)中有升,建立有效的人民幣跨境流通的管理和監(jiān)測(cè)體系,促進(jìn)人民幣區(qū)域化進(jìn)程的發(fā)展。 在研究方法和創(chuàng)新方面,主要采用了定性分析與定量分析相結(jié)合的方法,在對(duì)人民幣境外流通進(jìn)行成因與效應(yīng)分析的同時(shí),建立計(jì)量模型,加入經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)證分析,使用大量數(shù)據(jù)、圖表來(lái)分析CAFTA框架下人民幣跨境流通的現(xiàn)狀及其影響。在創(chuàng)新方面,在中國(guó)-東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)(CAFTA)的框架下,對(duì)東盟國(guó)家的人民幣流通規(guī)模、結(jié)構(gòu)和流通渠道進(jìn)行分析,更具有針對(duì)性和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義；在數(shù)據(jù)分析的基礎(chǔ)上,再探究CAFTA框架下人民幣流通的成因和影響,理論與實(shí)務(wù)相結(jié)合,實(shí)踐意義較強(qiáng)。
[Abstract]:With the continuous growth of China's economy and the promotion of comprehensive national strength, the status of regional economy and trade has been continuously improved. The scale and scope of cross-border circulation of RMB has been further expanded. The expansion of the scale of RMB overseas has promoted the deepening of the international monetary function of the RMB, and the influence of the RMB as a regional currency has been shown. CAFTAA was established in 2010, which not only makes the economic development between China and ASEAN countries open a new chapter. With the help of the trade platform effect of CAFTA, the circulation of RMB in ASEAN countries increases rapidly, which effectively complements the need of international settlement. At the same time, the cross-border circulation of RMB in the highly monetized society today will lead to the cross-border allocation of various elements and resources, which will play an important role in the national economy, regional economy and even the world economy. Under the framework of CAFTA, the circulation of RMB abroad is beneficial to promote the foreign trade between China and ASEAN countries, to adjust the industrial structure of our economy and to optimize the allocation of resources in the regional scope. It is beneficial for our export enterprises to avoid the exchange rate risk and make our country gain the seigniorage income. On the other hand, the cross-border circulation of RMB may have an impact on the financial stability of China's border provinces because of the absence of monitoring. After the large-scale development of cross-border circulation of RMB, the small changes of interest rate and exchange rate in the financial market may cause the large-scale flow of RMB. The flow of profit-driven capital is generally pro-cyclical, contrary to the countercyclical nature of macroeconomic regulation. At present, under the framework of CAFTA, we should further promote the border trade between China and ASEAN countries with the help of favorable situation. Keep the RMB exchange rate steady and rising, establish an effective management and monitoring system of RMB cross-border circulation, and promote the development of RMB regionalization. In the aspect of research method and innovation, this paper mainly adopts the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, and establishes the econometric model while analyzing the causes and effects of RMB circulation abroad. Add the empirical analysis of economic data, using a large number of data, charts to analyze the current situation and impact of RMB cross-border circulation under the framework of CAFTA. Under the framework of China-ASEAN Free Trade area (CAFTAA), it is more pertinent and practical to analyze the scale, structure and channel of RMB circulation in ASEAN countries. On the basis of data analysis, this paper probes into the cause and influence of RMB circulation under the framework of CAFTA. The combination of theory and practice is of great practical significance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F822.2

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