【摘要】：財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指的是企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)不合理,融資不足等,導(dǎo)致公司償債能力降低的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也是汾酒集團(tuán)在財(cái)務(wù)管理過程中必須要面對(duì)的問題,客觀上是不能夠完全消除的。財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià),主要是通過資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表、利潤(rùn)表、現(xiàn)金流量表,分析企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)狀況的變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)及資產(chǎn)、負(fù)債、收益之間的關(guān)系,從財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表的會(huì)計(jì)信息中挖掘企業(yè)內(nèi)在的財(cái)務(wù)關(guān)系。公司的管理者要綜合的運(yùn)用現(xiàn)代管理和控制手段有效地對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行分析和評(píng)價(jià)。同時(shí)為獲取良好的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益,并盡可能地減少損失,構(gòu)建系統(tǒng)的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)體系和適當(dāng)?shù)娘L(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和控制機(jī)制,進(jìn)行財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的防范與規(guī)避。汾酒集團(tuán)在經(jīng)營(yíng)管理過程中財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)管相對(duì)薄弱,對(duì)自身業(yè)務(wù)情況盲目樂觀。在現(xiàn)有的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究文獻(xiàn)中,對(duì)酒類上市公司的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)研究較少,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)生的主要因素缺乏較為深刻的分析,財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀態(tài)的判斷未形成一套簡(jiǎn)單又實(shí)用的評(píng)價(jià)體系,形成財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的管理措施也缺乏針對(duì)性。本文基于財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)基礎(chǔ)理論并結(jié)合模糊層次分析法,通過建立財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)體系,對(duì)山西汾酒集團(tuán)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)進(jìn)行探討。首先,主要分析了財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的背景、意義,研究的內(nèi)容和方法,說明了本文研究?jī)?nèi)容的必要性。并對(duì)企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的理論基礎(chǔ),財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及評(píng)價(jià)相關(guān)概念和背景知識(shí)進(jìn)行介紹,引出財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)體系和一些常用的評(píng)價(jià)方法。其次,通過實(shí)際調(diào)研和梳理,研究了山西汾酒集團(tuán)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理現(xiàn)狀與存在問題,通過對(duì)該公司及整個(gè)行業(yè)近幾年的財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)和指標(biāo)進(jìn)行分析,找出其中財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)存在的問題。再次,汾酒集團(tuán)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素識(shí)別,分析引起風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的內(nèi)部和外部因素,并運(yùn)用專家打分法確定引發(fā)汾酒集團(tuán)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的主要因素。接著,建立汾酒集團(tuán)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,運(yùn)用選取指標(biāo)的原則、方法、依據(jù),結(jié)合汾酒現(xiàn)有的評(píng)價(jià)體系,選取適當(dāng)?shù)呢?cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)建立新的評(píng)價(jià)體系,并構(gòu)建汾酒集團(tuán)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型。運(yùn)用模糊層次分析法對(duì)汾酒集團(tuán)的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型進(jìn)行構(gòu)建并進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。最后,提出汾酒集團(tuán)股份有限公司財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理對(duì)策的建議,運(yùn)用前面章節(jié)的實(shí)證分析結(jié)果,分別從內(nèi)部和外部?jī)蓚�(gè)方面提出防范、規(guī)避、減少財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的策略。
[Abstract]:Financial risk refers to the risk that the financial structure of the enterprise is unreasonable and the financing is insufficient, which leads to the reduction of the company's solvency. Financial risk is also the problem that Fenjiu Group must face in the process of financial management, objectively it can not be completely eliminated. Financial risk assessment is mainly based on the balance sheet, income statement, cash flow statement, analysis of the changing trend of the financial position of the enterprise and the relationship between assets, liabilities, and income. Excavate the internal financial relation of enterprise from the accounting information of financial statement. The managers of the company should comprehensively use modern management and control means to analyze and evaluate financial risks effectively. At the same time, in order to obtain good economic benefits and reduce losses as much as possible, a systematic financial risk evaluation system and appropriate risk management and control mechanism are constructed to prevent and avoid financial risks. Fenjiu Group in the management process of financial risk supervision is relatively weak, blindly optimistic about their own business situation. In the existing financial risk research literature, there is little research on the evaluation of the financial risk of the listed alcohol companies, the main risk factors are lack of more profound analysis, the judgment of the financial risk state has not formed a set of simple and practical evaluation system. The management measure that forms financial risk also lacks pertinence. Based on the basic theory of financial risk and the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, this paper discusses the financial risk evaluation of Shanxi Fenjiu Group through the establishment of financial risk evaluation system. Firstly, it analyzes the background, significance, contents and methods of financial risk assessment, and explains the necessity of this paper. The theoretical basis of financial risk assessment, financial risk and related concepts and background knowledge are introduced, and the financial risk evaluation system and some commonly used evaluation methods are introduced. Secondly, the present situation and problems of financial risk management of Shanxi Fenjiu Group are studied through actual investigation and combing, and the financial data and indicators of the company and the whole industry are analyzed in recent years to find out the problems of financial risk in Shanxi Fenjiu Group. Thirdly, the financial risk factors of Fenjiu Group are identified, the internal and external factors that cause the risks are analyzed, and the main factors that lead to the financial risks of Fenjiu Group are determined by using the expert scoring method. Then, the financial risk evaluation index system of Fenjiu Group is established, and a new evaluation system is established by using the principle, method and basis of selecting the index, combining with the existing evaluation system of Fenjiu. And build Fenjiu Group financial risk assessment model. The financial risk assessment model of Fenjiu Group is constructed by using Fuzzy Analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and the empirical analysis is carried out. Finally, the paper puts forward the suggestions of financial risk management of Fenjiu Group Co., Ltd., and puts forward the strategies of preventing, avoiding and reducing financial risk from the internal and external aspects using the results of empirical analysis in the previous chapters.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F406.7;F426.82

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 孫蕾;;EPC工程總承包財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的管控[J];企業(yè)改革與管理;2015年11期

2 黃月;高學(xué)東;;聚類分析在高校財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)中的應(yīng)用[J];中國(guó)管理信息化;2014年08期

3 章彩云;;信息技術(shù)類上市公司財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警實(shí)證研究[J];科技和產(chǎn)業(yè);2014年01期

4 朱若男;殷歡歡;;基于灰色聚類的上市公司財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)[J];科技與管理;2014年01期

5 李寶紅;;試析防范企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)[J];全國(guó)商情(理論研究);2011年14期

6 張立強(qiáng);;財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的控制策略分析[J];商業(yè)文化(上半月);2011年05期

7 高雷;戴勇;;管理層激勵(lì)、企業(yè)發(fā)展?jié)摿εc財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)——基于A股上市公司的面板數(shù)據(jù)分析[J];中南財(cái)經(jīng)政法大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2011年03期

8 謝學(xué)情;;論企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理與策略的研究[J];財(cái)經(jīng)界(學(xué)術(shù)版);2010年05期

9 劉濤;袁輝;;金融危機(jī)背景下我國(guó)企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的防范對(duì)策[J];會(huì)計(jì)之友(中旬刊);2010年02期

10 曹愛民;;淺析企業(yè)匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制[J];中國(guó)總會(huì)計(jì)師;2010年01期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前3條

1 王穎;文化創(chuàng)意產(chǎn)業(yè)資產(chǎn)證券化融資模式研究[D];北京理工大學(xué);2014年

2 王嘉;科技成果評(píng)估方法與指標(biāo)體系的研究[D];中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)（北京）;2010年

3 肖亞紅;內(nèi)地與香港銀行規(guī)制的比較研究[D];遼寧大學(xué);2006年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前10條

1 張媛;中小型房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題研究[D];廣東財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2014年

2 張夢(mèng)薇;中國(guó)教育培訓(xùn)行業(yè)上市公司財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)與控制研究[D];新疆財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2014年

3 狄璋瑩;中小企業(yè)銀行貸款決策模型研究及應(yīng)用[D];上海交通大學(xué);2014年

4 祁玉鳳;基于內(nèi)部控制的上市公司財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)與控制研究[D];河北工程大學(xué);2013年

5 李善花;中國(guó)種業(yè)上市公司財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)與控制研究[D];山東農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué);2010年

6 居淑芳;我國(guó)獨(dú)立學(xué)院財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警機(jī)制研究[D];中國(guó)地質(zhì)大學(xué)（北京）;2010年

7 潘潔;基于KMV模型和神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的上市公司財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警研究[D];電子科技大學(xué);2010年

8 龍海雯;保險(xiǎn)公司財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)與控制研究[D];昆明理工大學(xué);2009年

9 朱萍;我國(guó)煤炭行業(yè)上市公司經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)?cè)u(píng)價(jià)研究[D];武漢理工大學(xué);2008年

10 李莉;上市公司財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警組合預(yù)測(cè)模型的應(yīng)用研究[D];哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué);2008年

，

本文編號(hào)：2223039