【摘要】：能源是人類社會(huì)發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ),我國(guó)能源的儲(chǔ)備總量相對(duì)較大,但人均能源占有量不足,能源前景仍然不容樂(lè)觀。人們對(duì)能源的過(guò)度開采使得能源的儲(chǔ)量在不斷的減少,并且還對(duì)生態(tài)環(huán)境造成了嚴(yán)重破壞。改革開放后,我國(guó)高度重視能源產(chǎn)業(yè)問(wèn)題積極采取相應(yīng)措施,雖然在能源領(lǐng)域取得了一定的成就,但在產(chǎn)生成就的同時(shí)也帶來(lái)了不少問(wèn)題,例如能源利用效率相對(duì)較低、能源供需矛盾加劇、環(huán)境污染日益嚴(yán)重等,為社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)的發(fā)展帶來(lái)了一定程度上的阻礙。因此需要加快轉(zhuǎn)變能源發(fā)展方式,調(diào)整能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)與能源生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu),建設(shè)一個(gè)資源消耗量低、環(huán)境污染少、經(jīng)濟(jì)效益好的國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)體系和資源節(jié)約型社會(huì),科學(xué)預(yù)測(cè)評(píng)估我國(guó)能源的生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)進(jìn)行,監(jiān)管與規(guī)劃能源的使用。這對(duì)促進(jìn)紅河州GDP的增加,構(gòu)建和諧社會(huì)和節(jié)約型社會(huì),具有很重要的意義。本文從能源消費(fèi)總量、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、重點(diǎn)耗能行業(yè)等方面對(duì)紅河州能源消費(fèi)現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了分析,并且通過(guò)建立因素分解法,從經(jīng)濟(jì)因素、技術(shù)因素和結(jié)構(gòu)因素三方面對(duì)紅河州能源消費(fèi)主要變化特征進(jìn)行了全面詳細(xì)的分析。在此基礎(chǔ)上,綜合運(yùn)用因子分析法、多元線性回歸模型和指數(shù)平滑法預(yù)測(cè)模型,對(duì)紅河州能耗總量進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè),并對(duì)誤差進(jìn)行了分析結(jié)合各個(gè)模型的優(yōu)點(diǎn)采用離異系數(shù)變權(quán)組合模型對(duì)能源需求進(jìn)行了建模預(yù)測(cè),進(jìn)一步對(duì)紅河州的能源消費(fèi)情況得到了預(yù)測(cè)精度相對(duì)更高和可靠性更好的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果。根據(jù)紅河州能源產(chǎn)業(yè)整體消費(fèi)現(xiàn)狀、能源消費(fèi)過(guò)程中的主要變化特征和對(duì)能源消費(fèi)總量進(jìn)行建立預(yù)測(cè)模型得到的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果,從而指出了能源產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展過(guò)程中所存在的問(wèn)題,并針對(duì)此問(wèn)題提出了未來(lái)紅河州能源產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的詳實(shí)對(duì)策及建議。未來(lái)紅河州必須優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式、依靠科技進(jìn)步和創(chuàng)新提高能源利用率、加強(qiáng)政府的宏觀調(diào)控、完善市場(chǎng)導(dǎo)向的能源體制,才能實(shí)現(xiàn)能源的有效利用和可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Energy is the basis of the development of human society. The total amount of energy reserves in China is relatively large, but the energy per capita is insufficient, the energy prospect is still not optimistic. The over-exploitation of energy causes the decrease of energy reserves and serious damage to the ecological environment. After the reform and opening up, China attaches great importance to the energy industry issues and actively take appropriate measures. Although it has made certain achievements in the energy field, it has also brought many problems, such as relatively low energy use efficiency. The contradiction between energy supply and demand and environmental pollution are becoming more and more serious, which hinder the sustainable development of society and economy to a certain extent. Therefore, it is necessary to speed up the transformation of energy development mode, adjust the energy consumption structure and energy production structure, and build a national economic system and a resource-saving society with low consumption of resources, less environmental pollution, and good economic benefits. Scientific prediction and evaluation of energy production and consumption, supervision and planning of energy use. It is of great significance to promote the increase of GDP in Honghe Prefecture and to build a harmonious society and a saving society. This paper analyzes the current situation of energy consumption in Honghe Prefecture from the aspects of total energy consumption, industrial structure and key energy-consuming industries, and establishes a factorization method to analyze the economic factors. The main change characteristics of energy consumption in Honghe Prefecture are analyzed in detail from three aspects: technical factors and structural factors. On this basis, the total energy consumption of Honghe Prefecture is predicted by factor analysis, multivariate linear regression model and exponential smoothing method. The error is analyzed and combined with the advantages of each model. The energy demand is modeled and forecasted by using the divorce coefficient variable weight combination model. Furthermore, the energy consumption in Honghe Prefecture is predicted with higher prediction accuracy and better reliability. According to the overall consumption situation of energy industry in Honghe Prefecture, the main changing characteristics in the process of energy consumption and the forecast results obtained by establishing a prediction model for total energy consumption, the problems existing in the development of energy industry are pointed out. The detailed countermeasures and suggestions for the future development of energy industry in Honghe Prefecture are put forward. In the future, Honghe Prefecture must optimize its industrial structure, change its mode of economic growth, rely on scientific and technological progress and innovation to improve its energy utilization rate, strengthen the government's macro-control, and improve its market-oriented energy system. In order to achieve the effective use of energy and sustainable development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F426.2

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