本文選題：工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展 + 工業(yè)碳排放　； 參考：《吉林大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：工業(yè)是國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的命脈。在工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)全面發(fā)展的同時(shí),化石燃料的大量消耗和溫室氣體的排放,對(duì)自然環(huán)境造成嚴(yán)重破壞,甚至將阻礙經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的正常運(yùn)行。吉林省是我國(guó)重要的工業(yè)基地,加工制造業(yè)較為發(fā)達(dá)。長(zhǎng)期以來(lái),以重工業(yè)為主的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),以煤炭消費(fèi)為主的能源結(jié)構(gòu),使吉林省碳排放量劇增,自然環(huán)境不斷惡化,面臨著節(jié)能減排的嚴(yán)峻壓力,吉林省工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的步伐受到影響。研究吉林省工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與工業(yè)碳排放之間的關(guān)系,對(duì)促進(jìn)吉林省工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)健康發(fā)展,推動(dòng)吉林省工業(yè)部門(mén)節(jié)能減排工作具有重要意義。本文以2000-2015年吉林省三大行業(yè)34個(gè)子行業(yè)的面板數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),首先對(duì)吉林省工業(yè)整體及其下屬三大行業(yè)的產(chǎn)值及碳排放數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)和格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn),分析了吉林省工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與碳排放量之間存在的關(guān)系。其次,本文運(yùn)用LMDI分解方法,具體應(yīng)用擴(kuò)展后的Kaya恒等式進(jìn)行分解,對(duì)吉林省工業(yè)碳排放影響因素各時(shí)期的變化特點(diǎn)及貢獻(xiàn)效應(yīng)值進(jìn)行了測(cè)量,研究工業(yè)分行業(yè)碳排放的影響因素。隨后運(yùn)用擴(kuò)展的IPAT模型,分析長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、工業(yè)內(nèi)部行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、工業(yè)行業(yè)能源強(qiáng)度、能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)等因素對(duì)工業(yè)碳排放變化的彈性貢獻(xiàn)大小。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)2000-2015年間,吉林省工業(yè)碳排放整體上呈現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì),節(jié)碳減排壓力大;(2)工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與碳排放之間存在著產(chǎn)值增長(zhǎng)和碳排放增長(zhǎng)之間長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的雙向因果關(guān)系;(3)工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展效應(yīng)是吉林省工業(yè)碳排放劇增的最主要原因;產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)對(duì)工業(yè)碳排放增長(zhǎng)影響效果不明顯;能源消耗強(qiáng)度的變化對(duì)吉林省工業(yè)碳排放量減少貢獻(xiàn)較大,提高能源消費(fèi)效率和技術(shù)進(jìn)步水平是節(jié)碳減排的最重要方式;(4)從吉林省工業(yè)分行業(yè)碳排放影響因素的實(shí)證分析來(lái)看,能源效率水平的提高對(duì)吉林省工業(yè)碳排放的抑制作用最為明顯,其次為工業(yè)內(nèi)部行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、人均工業(yè)產(chǎn)值、固定資產(chǎn)投資規(guī)模,能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)工業(yè)碳排放的影響最小。最后,本文結(jié)合實(shí)證分析結(jié)果,為吉林省工業(yè)行業(yè)節(jié)碳減排提出了政策建議。
[Abstract]:Industry is the lifeblood of the national economy. With the overall development of industrial economy, the consumption of fossil fuels and the emission of greenhouse gases will cause serious damage to the natural environment and even hinder the normal operation of the economy and society. Jilin Province is an important industrial base of our country, processing manufacturing industry is more developed. For a long time, the industrial structure based on heavy industry and the energy structure based on coal consumption have greatly increased the carbon emissions of Jilin Province, and the natural environment has been deteriorating constantly, facing the severe pressure of energy saving and emission reduction. The pace of industrial economic development in Jilin Province has been affected. It is of great significance to study the relationship between industrial economic development and industrial carbon emission in Jilin Province, to promote the sustainable and healthy development of industrial economy in Jilin Province, and to promote energy saving and emission reduction in industrial sector of Jilin Province. Based on the panel data of 34 sub-industries in Jilin Province from 2000 to 2015, this paper first tests the output value and carbon emission data of the three major industries in Jilin Province. The cointegration test and Granger causality test are used to analyze the relationship between industrial economic development and carbon emissions in Jilin Province. Secondly, by using the LMDI decomposition method and the extended Kaya identity, the change characteristics and contribution effects of industrial carbon emission factors in Jilin Province are measured. To study the influencing factors of carbon emission in industrial subsectors. Then, the extended IPAT model is used to analyze the elastic contribution of industrial economic development, industry structure, energy intensity and energy consumption structure to the change of industrial carbon emissions in the long run. The study found that industrial carbon emissions in Jilin Province as a whole showed an increasing trend between 2000 and 2015. There is a long and stable two-way causality relationship between industrial economic development and carbon emission growth) the industrial economic development effect is the main reason for the sharp increase of industrial carbon emissions in Jilin Province. The effect of industrial structure effect on industrial carbon emission growth is not obvious, and the change of energy consumption intensity contributes greatly to the reduction of industrial carbon emissions in Jilin Province. Improving the efficiency of energy consumption and technological progress is the most important way to reduce carbon emissions. (4) from the empirical analysis of the factors affecting carbon emissions of industrial subsectors in Jilin Province, The improvement of energy efficiency level has the most obvious restraining effect on industrial carbon emissions in Jilin Province, followed by the industrial structure, industrial output per capita, fixed asset investment scale and energy consumption structure, which have the least effect on industrial carbon emissions. Finally, based on the results of empirical analysis, the paper puts forward some policy recommendations for carbon saving in Jilin industrial industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：X22;F427

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