本文選題：人口紅利 + 裝備制造業(yè)�。� 參考：《哈爾濱商業(yè)大學(xué)學(xué)報(社會科學(xué)版)》2017年03期

【摘要】：裝備制造業(yè)作為工業(yè)發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ),其轉(zhuǎn)型升級對黑龍江省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展意義重大。以2000—2014年黑龍江省人口數(shù)量和人口質(zhì)量為研究對象,采用多元線性回歸法和格蘭杰檢驗(yàn)法分析人口紅利對黑龍江省裝備制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級的影響。研究結(jié)果表明:在人口數(shù)量方面,總撫養(yǎng)、少兒撫養(yǎng)比和老年撫養(yǎng)比與裝備制造業(yè)產(chǎn)值之間存在負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,其中,少兒撫養(yǎng)比的影響最大;在人口質(zhì)量方面,裝備制造業(yè)對高等教育人才的需求不足,高等教育就業(yè)人口與高技術(shù)裝備制造業(yè)產(chǎn)值的增長之間存在著高度的正線性相關(guān)關(guān)系,但二者之間并不存在因果關(guān)系。
[Abstract]:As the foundation of industrial development, equipment manufacturing industry is of great significance to the economic development of Heilongjiang Province. Taking the population quantity and population quality of Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2014 as the research object, the effects of demographic dividend on the transformation and upgrading of the equipment manufacturing industry in Heilongjiang Province were analyzed by using multiple linear regression method and Granger test method. The results show that: in terms of population size, there is a negative correlation between total dependency, child dependency ratio and old age dependency ratio and equipment manufacturing output, among which, the child dependency ratio has the greatest impact on population quality. There is a high positive linear correlation between the employment population of higher education and the growth of the output value of high-tech equipment manufacturing industry, but there is no causal relationship between them.
【作者單位】： 哈爾濱商業(yè)大學(xué)學(xué)術(shù)理論研究部;哈爾濱商業(yè)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;
【基金】：黑龍江省哲學(xué)社會科學(xué)研究規(guī)劃項(xiàng)目“黑龍江省國有企業(yè)體制性產(chǎn)能過剩形成的機(jī)理及化解路徑研究”(16JYB10)
【分類號】：C924.2;F426

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