本文選題：低碳轉(zhuǎn)型 + 能源需求預(yù)測(cè)��； 參考：《武漢大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：伴隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng),世界各國(guó)對(duì)煤炭、石油等高碳能源消費(fèi)量高居不下,二氧化碳排放量急劇增加,導(dǎo)致全球氣候不斷變暖,"溫室效應(yīng)"日益加劇,由其導(dǎo)致的一系列不良影響和危害已嚴(yán)重威脅人類的生存環(huán)境甚至生命健康。在此大背景下,減少二氧化碳排放量,促進(jìn)低碳發(fā)展轉(zhuǎn)型已成為世界各國(guó)在推動(dòng)全球氣候治理進(jìn)程中的共識(shí)。自1978年以來,尤其是進(jìn)入21世紀(jì)以來,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)高速增長(zhǎng),工業(yè)化和城鎮(zhèn)化的進(jìn)程不斷加快,能源消費(fèi)總量大幅增加——由2000年的146964萬噸標(biāo)準(zhǔn)煤增長(zhǎng)到2015年的430000萬噸標(biāo)準(zhǔn)煤,年均增長(zhǎng)7.42%。加之中國(guó)的能源消費(fèi)以煤炭、石油等高碳能源為主,天然氣、一次電力及其他清潔能源的消費(fèi)總量總體占比常年低于17%,導(dǎo)致中國(guó)的二氧化碳排放量持續(xù)上升。2007年中國(guó)超越美國(guó)成為世界二氧化碳排放第一大國(guó),2013年中國(guó)二氧化碳排放量超過美國(guó)和歐盟二氧化碳排放量之和,占全球二氧化碳排放總量近三成。與此同時(shí),當(dāng)前雖中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)放緩,但經(jīng)濟(jì)增速依舊維持中高速增長(zhǎng),2016年中國(guó)GDP增速為6.7%,GDP總量達(dá)到11萬億美元,占全球GDP總量的14.84%。同時(shí)中國(guó)還面臨國(guó)內(nèi)資源耗竭、環(huán)境污染等可持續(xù)發(fā)展壓力以及塑造新的國(guó)家競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)客觀上要求中國(guó)低碳發(fā)展轉(zhuǎn)型。在此背景下,本文立足于能源結(jié)構(gòu),首先考慮低碳轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展特征,結(jié)合國(guó)家最近公布的節(jié)能減排政策,分基準(zhǔn)情景和約束情景,運(yùn)用偏最小二乘回歸對(duì)能源需求總量、能源結(jié)構(gòu)及二氧化碳排放量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè);其次,考慮低碳轉(zhuǎn)型的發(fā)展特征,綜合考慮經(jīng)濟(jì)、能源、環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,構(gòu)建了能源結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的多目標(biāo)優(yōu)化模型,研究在2016-2020年期間,在保證我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速維持中高速增長(zhǎng)的前提下,優(yōu)化我國(guó)能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)節(jié)能減排的確切影響;最后,考慮低碳轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展特征,將提高產(chǎn)出效益、減少能源消費(fèi)總量和降低二氧化碳排放作為政府激勵(lì)高碳能源消費(fèi)企業(yè)發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的三項(xiàng)重要任務(wù),構(gòu)建政府與高碳能源消費(fèi)企業(yè)之間的多任務(wù)委托代理模型,并分析高碳能源消費(fèi)企業(yè)努力成果的可觀測(cè)性和任務(wù)間的關(guān)聯(lián)程度對(duì)最優(yōu)激勵(lì)機(jī)制設(shè)計(jì)的影響,并提出相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the steady growth of the global economy, the consumption of coal, oil and other high-carbon energy sources in the world is high, and the carbon dioxide emissions are increasing sharply, resulting in the global climate becoming warmer and "Greenhouse Effect" getting worse day by day. A series of adverse effects and harms caused by them have seriously threatened the living environment and even the health of human beings. In this context, reducing carbon dioxide emissions and promoting the transformation of low-carbon development has become the consensus of the world in the process of promoting global climate governance. Since 1978, especially since the beginning of the 21st century, China's economy has continued to grow at a high speed, and the process of industrialization and urbanization has been accelerating. Total energy consumption increased sharply-from 1.46964 billion tons of standard coal in 2000 to 4.3 billion tons of standard coal in 2015, an annual increase of 7.42 percent. In addition, China's energy consumption is dominated by coal, oil and other high-carbon energy sources. Natural gas, China's carbon dioxide emissions continued to rise as a result of an overall consumption of less than 17 percent of primary electricity and other clean energy sources. In 2007, china overtook the United states to become the world's largest carbon dioxide emitter, and in 2013, china's oxidation dioxide Carbon emissions exceed the combined carbon dioxide emissions of the United States and the European Union, It accounts for nearly 30% of the world's total carbon dioxide emissions. Meanwhile, while China's economic growth trend is slowing, it is still growing at a moderate and high speed, with gross domestic product reaching $11 trillion in 2016, accounting for 14.84 per cent of global gross domestic product. At the same time, China also faces the pressure of sustainable development, such as exhaustion of domestic resources, environmental pollution, and shaping new national competitive advantage. In this context, based on the energy structure, this paper first considers the characteristics of low-carbon transformation and development, combined with the recently announced policies of energy conservation and emission reduction, sub-benchmark scenario and constraint scenario, using partial least squares regression to the total energy demand. Secondly, considering the development characteristics of low-carbon transformation, considering the coordinated development of economy, energy and environment, a multi-objective optimization model of energy structure adjustment is constructed, and the model is studied in 2016-2020. On the premise of maintaining medium and high speed economic growth in our country, optimizing the energy consumption structure of our country will definitely affect energy saving and emission reduction. Finally, considering the development characteristics of low-carbon transformation, the output efficiency will be improved. Reducing the total amount of energy consumption and reducing carbon dioxide emissions are three important tasks for the government to encourage high-carbon energy consuming enterprises to develop a low-carbon economy. A multi-task principal-agent model between the government and high-carbon energy consumption enterprises is constructed. This paper also analyzes the influence of the observability of high carbon energy consumption enterprises' effort achievement and the degree of correlation between tasks on the design of optimal incentive mechanism, and puts forward some relevant policy suggestions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F426.2

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