本文選題：供需互動(dòng) + 電力市場(chǎng)��； 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)(北京)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國(guó)信用管理開展時(shí)間不長(zhǎng),從2007年明確提出完善各行業(yè)信用建設(shè)。電力行業(yè)一直高度重視信用體系的建設(shè),相繼提出了信用評(píng)價(jià)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和獎(jiǎng)懲機(jī)制。2016年,隨著電力體制改革9號(hào)文的頒布,電力市場(chǎng)改革加大推進(jìn)力度。隨著電力體制改革的推進(jìn),電力市場(chǎng)交易類型更加多元化,電力市場(chǎng)環(huán)境增加了多變性和復(fù)雜性。其中,電力市場(chǎng)供需雙向互動(dòng)、市場(chǎng)主體類型更加多樣化和售電側(cè)放開等不確定因素,給電力市場(chǎng)的運(yùn)營(yíng)管理帶來(lái)很多的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。電力市場(chǎng)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)亟需對(duì)市場(chǎng)成員信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估進(jìn)行分析,為有效防范市場(chǎng)運(yùn)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提供決策依據(jù),為保障市場(chǎng)規(guī)范運(yùn)行和健康有序發(fā)展提供技術(shù)支撐。論文圍繞著供需互動(dòng)的電力市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問(wèn)題,首先,簡(jiǎn)要介紹了供需互動(dòng)問(wèn)題的形成,分析了我國(guó)供需互動(dòng)電力市場(chǎng)的基本形式,包括電力直接交易、發(fā)電權(quán)交易、需求側(cè)響應(yīng)和用電權(quán)交易�？偨Y(jié)了我國(guó)供需互動(dòng)的電力市場(chǎng)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀以及產(chǎn)生信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的主要原因。其次,提出電力市場(chǎng)主要成員的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)類別,包括基礎(chǔ)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、財(cái)務(wù)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和交易信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。深入分析了發(fā)電企業(yè)和電力用戶信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的形成原因,結(jié)合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)類別和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素構(gòu)建了信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的指標(biāo)體系。然后,從綜合評(píng)價(jià)角度建立了基于區(qū)間數(shù)和綜合權(quán)重的供需互動(dòng)的發(fā)電企業(yè)和電力用戶信用評(píng)價(jià)模型,從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警角度建立了基于灰色預(yù)測(cè)和物元可拓的供需互動(dòng)的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)動(dòng)態(tài)預(yù)警模型,實(shí)現(xiàn)了供需互動(dòng)電力市場(chǎng)背景下,市場(chǎng)成員從信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別到信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)級(jí),再到動(dòng)態(tài)信用預(yù)警的系統(tǒng)化分析。并通過(guò)算例分析,對(duì)比了不同發(fā)電企業(yè)和電力用戶的信用情況,實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)用戶未來(lái)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的預(yù)測(cè)和預(yù)警等級(jí)判別,得出供需互動(dòng)的電力市場(chǎng)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)與預(yù)警模型是一項(xiàng)可以應(yīng)用與推廣的模型。最后,結(jié)合上文研究,針對(duì)目前電力市場(chǎng)開展情況,提出信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范措施及相關(guān)保障機(jī)制建議。完善市場(chǎng)準(zhǔn)入機(jī)制、偏差電量處理等市場(chǎng)機(jī)制,建立健全市場(chǎng)主體信息公示制度和失信懲戒制度。
[Abstract]:Credit management in China has not been carried out for a long time, from 2007 clearly put forward to improve the credit construction of various industries. The electric power industry has always attached great importance to the construction of credit system, and put forward the credit evaluation standard and reward and punishment mechanism one after another. In 2016, with the promulgation of article No. 9 of the electric power system reform, the electric power market reform has been strengthened. With the development of power system reform, the transaction types of electricity market become more diversified, and the environment of electricity market increases variability and complexity. Among them, there are many uncertain factors, such as the two-way interaction between supply and demand of electricity market, the diversification of the main types of the market and the liberalization of the selling side, which brings a lot of risks to the operation and management of the electricity market. It is urgent for the power market regulators to analyze the credit risk assessment of market members so as to provide a decision basis for effectively preventing market operation risks and provide technical support for ensuring the normal operation of the market and the healthy and orderly development of the market. First of all, the paper briefly introduces the formation of the interaction between supply and demand, and analyzes the basic forms of China's supply and demand interactive power market, including direct electricity trading, power generation right trading. Demand side response and power trading. This paper summarizes the current situation of the power market with the interaction of supply and demand in our country and the main reasons for the credit risk. Secondly, the credit risk categories of the main members of the electricity market are proposed, including basic credit risk, financial credit risk, production and operation risk and transaction credit risk. In this paper, the causes of credit risk of power generation enterprises and power users are deeply analyzed, and the index system of credit risk evaluation is constructed by combining risk categories and risk factors. Then, from the perspective of comprehensive evaluation, the credit evaluation model of power generation enterprises and power users is established based on the interaction between supply and demand, which is based on interval number and comprehensive weight. Based on grey forecast and matter-element extension, a dynamic early-warning model of credit risk is established from the angle of risk early warning. Under the background of interactive power market, market members can recognize credit risk to credit risk rating. Then to the systematic analysis of dynamic credit warning. Through the analysis of examples, the credit situation of different power generation enterprises and power users is compared, and the prediction of future credit risk of users and the discrimination of early warning grade are realized. It is concluded that the credit risk evaluation and early warning model of electricity market based on the interaction of supply and demand is a model that can be applied and popularized. Finally, according to the current situation of the electricity market, the paper puts forward the credit risk prevention measures and relevant safeguard mechanism suggestions. We should perfect the market mechanism, such as market access mechanism, bias electricity treatment and so on, and establish and perfect the information publicity system and the punishment system of dishonesty.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61

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