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階梯電價(jià)政策對(duì)河北南網(wǎng)用電營(yíng)銷的影響分析及預(yù)測(cè)評(píng)估

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-05-21 20:01

  本文選題:階梯電價(jià) + 居民用電量; 參考:《華北電力大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文


【摘要】:居民階梯電價(jià)政策的實(shí)施對(duì)促進(jìn)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展有著十分重要的意義。貫徹實(shí)施階梯電價(jià)政策有助于我國(guó)電價(jià)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化,同時(shí)能夠很好地反映出不同收入階層在電力產(chǎn)品成本上的不同,能夠達(dá)到避免不同收入階層居民之間的交叉補(bǔ)貼的效果,有助于居民節(jié)約用電,提高能效,促進(jìn)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。本文主要從階梯電價(jià)對(duì)居民用電量、負(fù)荷曲線、節(jié)能減排效果和供電企業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)效益的影響四個(gè)方面分析了該政策的直接影響,進(jìn)而再研究對(duì)用電營(yíng)銷的影響,并且找出該政策不足,提出解決方案。針對(duì)階梯電價(jià)對(duì)居民用電量的影響,采用繪制條形圖進(jìn)行對(duì)比的方式,將2011年和2015年的居民用電量在不同人群,不同時(shí)間段內(nèi)進(jìn)行了對(duì)比,得到階梯電價(jià)對(duì)不同群體和不同季節(jié)影響。針對(duì)階梯電價(jià)對(duì)負(fù)荷曲線的影響,同樣采用繪制條形圖進(jìn)行對(duì)比的方式,將2011年和2012年政策實(shí)施前后兩個(gè)月的負(fù)荷曲線進(jìn)行對(duì)比,通過對(duì)比得出政策實(shí)施前后,最大負(fù)荷增加幅度,峰谷差率和負(fù)荷率的變化趨勢(shì)。針對(duì)階梯電價(jià)對(duì)節(jié)能效果的影響,引入了經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中的效用函數(shù)理論,以家庭的消費(fèi)預(yù)算為約束條件,建立了基于效用理論的階梯電價(jià)政策下居民電力需求量的預(yù)測(cè)模型,得出以下結(jié)論:采取階梯電價(jià)政策可以顯著降低居民家庭月用電總量,有利于節(jié)約資源,支援現(xiàn)代化建設(shè),同時(shí),如果各個(gè)階梯電價(jià)設(shè)置越高,節(jié)能效果越明顯。針對(duì)階梯電價(jià)對(duì)企業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)效益的影響,居民電力用戶電力需求量會(huì)影響供電企業(yè)的售電量,基于此,綜合考量銷售電價(jià)的變化情況分析供電企業(yè)的售電收入變化,根據(jù)其售電量的變化以及上網(wǎng)電價(jià)的變化趨勢(shì),分析供電企業(yè)購(gòu)電量變動(dòng)以及供電成本變動(dòng)情況。最后,綜合以上四個(gè)方面的影響,探討了階梯政策對(duì)用電營(yíng)銷的影響,對(duì)于存在的不足,給出改進(jìn)意見。
[Abstract]:The implementation of ladder electricity price policy is of great significance to promote the economic development of our country. Carrying out the step price policy will help to rationalize the structure of electricity price in China, at the same time, it can well reflect the differences in the cost of electricity products among different income groups, and can achieve the effect of avoiding cross-subsidization among residents of different income groups. It helps to save electricity, improve energy efficiency and promote social and economic development. This paper analyzes the direct influence of this policy from four aspects: the influence of step electricity price on the consumption of electricity, the load curve, the effect of energy saving and emission reduction, and the economic benefit of the power supply enterprise, and then studies the influence of the policy on the marketing of electricity. And find out the policy is insufficient, propose a solution. In view of the influence of ladder electricity price on the electricity consumption of residents, this paper compares the electricity consumption of residents in 2011 and 2015 in different populations and different time periods by drawing a bar chart. The influence of step price on different population and season is obtained. In view of the influence of step price on load curve, the load curve of two months before and after the policy implementation in 2011 and 2012 is compared by drawing bar chart. The change trend of maximum load increase range, peak and valley difference rate and load rate. In view of the effect of step price on energy saving, the utility function theory in economics is introduced. Based on the consumption budget of household, the forecasting model of household electricity demand under the policy of step electricity price is established based on utility theory. The following conclusions are drawn: adopting the policy of ladder electricity price can significantly reduce the total monthly electricity consumption of residents, which is beneficial to saving resources and supporting modernization. At the same time, if the price of every step electricity is set higher, the effect of energy saving is more obvious. In view of the influence of ladder electricity price on the economic benefit of enterprises, the electricity demand of resident power users will affect the electricity sales of power supply enterprises. Based on this, the change of electricity sales income of power supply enterprises is analyzed by considering the change of selling electricity price. According to the change of electricity sales and the trend of electricity price, the change of power purchase and power supply cost in power supply enterprises is analyzed. Finally, the influence of ladder policy on electricity marketing is discussed, and some suggestions for improvement are given.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2017
【分類號(hào)】:F426.61;F274

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 趙齊;常瀚思;段清偉;;階梯電價(jià)對(duì)城市居民用電行為影響的實(shí)證分析——以保定市為例[J];環(huán)渤海經(jīng)濟(jì)w,

本文編號(hào):1920568


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