本文選題：產(chǎn)出結(jié)構(gòu) + 要素結(jié)構(gòu)�。� 參考：《經(jīng)濟(jì)研究》2017年10期

【摘要】：制造業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化調(diào)整既是"中國(guó)制造2025"的核心內(nèi)容之一,亦是推動(dòng)"供給側(cè)改革"的重要抓手,但學(xué)術(shù)界往往未能充分利用開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)的相關(guān)信息和技術(shù)水平的貢獻(xiàn)作用,并缺乏對(duì)要素結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行相關(guān)配套分析。為此,本文以中國(guó)制造業(yè)兩位數(shù)行業(yè)為樣本,對(duì)其進(jìn)行產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的系統(tǒng)性優(yōu)化,即先分析了2015年產(chǎn)出結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化調(diào)整目標(biāo)及節(jié)能減排潛力,然后分析了各種要素投入的聯(lián)動(dòng)配套問(wèn)題,并重點(diǎn)針對(duì)資本存量要素,測(cè)算并分析它的產(chǎn)能利用率狀況。研究結(jié)果表明:(1)制造業(yè)產(chǎn)出結(jié)構(gòu)具備較大的優(yōu)化調(diào)整空間,可以為"經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和環(huán)境保護(hù)"雙贏的實(shí)現(xiàn)提供支撐,能夠讓2015年能源強(qiáng)度和碳強(qiáng)度比原始值分別降低18.08%和17.42%。(2)為降低要素錯(cuò)配,制造業(yè)產(chǎn)出結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化調(diào)整后需要各種投入要素進(jìn)行聯(lián)動(dòng)配套,特別是資本存量水平需要有較大幅度的變動(dòng)。(3)資本要素產(chǎn)能利用率水平的測(cè)算結(jié)果則進(jìn)一步顯示,受經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩和投資慣性的影響,2015年制造業(yè)產(chǎn)能利用率(56.14%)遠(yuǎn)低于國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)十二五規(guī)劃中后期(2008—2010)的均值水平(73.27%),而投入要素聯(lián)動(dòng)配套后的產(chǎn)能利用率則可以回升至后一水平。
[Abstract]:The optimization and adjustment of manufacturing industry structure is not only one of the core contents of "made in China 2025", but also an important grasp to promote "supply-side reform". However, the academic circles often fail to make full use of the contribution of the relevant information and technology level of the open economy. And the lack of relevant analysis of the structure of the elements. Therefore, this paper takes the double-digit industry of Chinese manufacturing industry as a sample to systematically optimize its industrial structure, that is, to analyze the target of optimizing and adjusting the output structure in 2015 and the potential of energy saving and emission reduction. Then, the paper analyzes the linkage of various factors, and calculates and analyzes the utilization rate of production capacity according to the capital stock factor. The results show that the manufacturing output structure has a large room for optimization and adjustment, which can provide support for the win-win realization of "economic growth and environmental protection". The energy intensity and carbon intensity of 2015 can be reduced by 18.08% and 17.422% respectively compared with the original value. In order to reduce the mismatch of factors, the optimization and adjustment of manufacturing output structure need all kinds of input factors to carry on the linkage matching. In particular, the results of the calculation of the level of utilization of capital factor capacity, which need to be changed by a large margin, further show that, Affected by the slowdown of economic growth and inertia of investment, the capacity utilization ratio of manufacturing industry in 2015 (56.14) is far lower than the average level of 73.27% in the middle and late period of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2008-2010), while the utilization rate of production capacity after the linkage of input elements can rise to the latter level.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)社科院工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所;南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;
【基金】：中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院創(chuàng)新工程項(xiàng)目“大數(shù)據(jù)技術(shù)在經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)警中的應(yīng)用” 國(guó)家自科基金政策研究重點(diǎn)支持項(xiàng)目(71742001);國(guó)家自科基金青年項(xiàng)目(71703065) 教育部人文社會(huì)科學(xué)基金青年項(xiàng)目(17YJC790195)的階段性成果
【分類號(hào)】：F121.3;F424

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