發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-13 21:34

  本文選題：河北省 + 可再生能源��； 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國(guó)“十二五”規(guī)劃提出了推動(dòng)能源生產(chǎn)和利用方式變革的新思路,確定了到2020年實(shí)現(xiàn)非化石能源消費(fèi)比重提高到15%和單位GDP碳減排40%~45%的兩個(gè)約束性指標(biāo)。河北省作為能源消耗和碳排放的大省,因此需要承擔(dān)較大的碳減排實(shí)施壓力。可再生能源的發(fā)展對(duì)中國(guó)實(shí)現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展至關(guān)重要,同時(shí)也是規(guī)避傳統(tǒng)能源價(jià)格波動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的一種方式。從可持續(xù)發(fā)展方面來看,二氧化碳的減排需求,以及對(duì)于未來能源短缺和氣候變化的擔(dān)憂促使政府采取政策措施來促進(jìn)可再生能源發(fā)展。河北地區(qū)的可再生能源具備良好的資源發(fā)展基礎(chǔ),其品種齊全,數(shù)量眾多,資源基礎(chǔ)非常雄厚。本研究將煤炭、石油和天然氣、電能、太陽能、風(fēng)能以及生物質(zhì)能作為主要能源要素,構(gòu)建了河北省可再生能源政策CGE模型,并在模型研究的基礎(chǔ)上實(shí)證分析河北省可再生能源政策對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、能源消費(fèi)以及碳減排等宏觀指標(biāo)的影響。本文首先闡述了針對(duì)河北省可再生能源發(fā)展政策的研究背景及研究意義,分析了本研究的必要性和重要性;其次,從可再生能源政策和CGE模型兩個(gè)方面,闡述了國(guó)內(nèi)外在相關(guān)領(lǐng)域研究的現(xiàn)狀,為本研究提供借鑒和指導(dǎo)。接著,詳細(xì)分析了河北省能源以及可再生能源利用的現(xiàn)狀,并介紹了河北省可再生能源(太陽能、風(fēng)能以及生物質(zhì)能)利用模式和可再生能源政策的情況,在此基礎(chǔ)上對(duì)河北省可再生能源結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行分析;分析發(fā)現(xiàn)煤炭、石油和天然氣為主的化石能源仍然是河北省能源消費(fèi)的主體,其中以煤炭消費(fèi)為主,可再生能源的利用比重較低約2%,河北地區(qū)擁有發(fā)展可再生能源的良好條件,具有巨大的發(fā)展空間。隨后,在介紹CGE模型相關(guān)理論的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合河北省能源消費(fèi)以及能源政策的實(shí)際構(gòu)建了河北省可再生能源政策分析的CGE模型,包括了能源模塊、生產(chǎn)模塊、貿(mào)易模塊、價(jià)格模塊、消費(fèi)模塊、均衡模塊以及可再生能源模塊。在模型構(gòu)建的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合河北省投入產(chǎn)出表設(shè)計(jì)了河北省可再生能源政策分析的社會(huì)核算矩陣,并運(yùn)用交叉熵法對(duì)原始SAM矩陣進(jìn)行平衡處理;此外,給出了模型公式中關(guān)鍵參數(shù)的取值。最后,基于所建立的河北省可再生能源政策分析的CGE模型以及社會(huì)核算矩陣來分析河北省太陽能、風(fēng)能以及生物質(zhì)能的電價(jià)政策對(duì)可再生能源、能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)以及環(huán)境等的影響效應(yīng)并提出政策建議。
[Abstract]:The 12th Five-Year Plan of our country puts forward a new idea to promote the transformation of energy production and utilization mode, and determines two binding targets of increasing the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption to 15% by 2020 and reducing carbon emissions by 40% and 45% per unit GDP. As a big province of energy consumption and carbon emission, Hebei Province needs to bear the pressure of carbon emission reduction. The development of renewable energy is very important for China to realize sustainable development, and it is also a way to avoid the risk of traditional energy price fluctuation. In terms of sustainable development, the demand for carbon dioxide emissions reductions, as well as concerns about future energy shortages and climate change, have prompted governments to adopt policy measures to promote renewable energy. Hebei renewable energy has a good resource development foundation, its variety is complete, the quantity is numerous, the resource base is very strong. Taking coal, oil and natural gas, electric energy, solar energy, wind energy and biomass energy as the main energy elements, the CGE model of renewable energy policy in Hebei Province was constructed. The impact of renewable energy policy on economic development, energy consumption and carbon emission reduction in Hebei Province is analyzed empirically on the basis of the model. In this paper, the background and significance of the research on renewable energy development policy in Hebei Province are first expounded, and the necessity and importance of this study are analyzed. Secondly, from two aspects of renewable energy policy and CGE model, The current situation of domestic and international research in related fields is expounded, which provides reference and guidance for this study. Then, the current situation of energy and renewable energy utilization in Hebei Province is analyzed in detail, and the utilization patterns and renewable energy policies of renewable energy (solar, wind and biomass energy) in Hebei Province are introduced. On this basis, the structure of renewable energy in Hebei Province is analyzed, and it is found that fossil energy, which is dominated by coal, oil and natural gas, is still the main source of energy consumption in Hebei Province, in which coal consumption is the main source. The utilization proportion of renewable energy is low about 2%. Hebei has good conditions for developing renewable energy and has a huge space for development. Then, on the basis of introducing the theory of CGE model, combined with the actual energy consumption and energy policy of Hebei Province, the CGE model of Hebei renewable energy policy analysis is constructed, which includes energy module, production module, trade module. Price module, consumption module, balance module and renewable energy module. Based on the model construction, the social accounting matrix of Hebei renewable energy policy analysis is designed based on the input-output table of Hebei Province, and the original SAM matrix is balanced by cross-entropy method. The values of key parameters in the model formula are given. Finally, based on the established CGE model and social accounting matrix of renewable energy policy analysis in Hebei Province, the electricity price policy of solar, wind and biomass energy in Hebei Province is analyzed. Economic and environmental effects and policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F426.2

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