本文選題：國(guó)內(nèi)原油價(jià)格 + 國(guó)際原油價(jià)格��； 參考：《稅務(wù)與經(jīng)濟(jì)》2017年04期

【摘要】：基于2000年1月至2016年5月國(guó)內(nèi)外原油價(jià)格數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用非線性平滑轉(zhuǎn)換回歸(STR)模型實(shí)證研究國(guó)際油價(jià)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)油價(jià)沖擊的非線性特征。結(jié)論表明:國(guó)際油價(jià)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)油價(jià)的沖擊因國(guó)際油價(jià)增長(zhǎng)率的差異而顯著不同,二者的關(guān)系呈現(xiàn)分段特征,并在線性與非線性關(guān)系間轉(zhuǎn)換;國(guó)內(nèi)原油價(jià)格對(duì)國(guó)際原油價(jià)格變化的調(diào)整較快;國(guó)際油價(jià)沖擊是國(guó)內(nèi)油價(jià)波動(dòng)的關(guān)鍵誘因,國(guó)內(nèi)原油價(jià)格具有一定的慣性,由于政策調(diào)控的及時(shí)性,有效緩和了國(guó)內(nèi)原油價(jià)格的上漲趨勢(shì)。因此,政策制定者應(yīng)關(guān)注國(guó)際原油價(jià)格對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)原油價(jià)格沖擊效應(yīng)的門檻值,把握主動(dòng)權(quán);國(guó)內(nèi)原油價(jià)格水平與國(guó)際原油價(jià)格水平已實(shí)現(xiàn)充分接軌,當(dāng)前石油定價(jià)機(jī)制調(diào)整的方向是使油價(jià)充分反映國(guó)內(nèi)石油市場(chǎng)的供需變化;應(yīng)盡快理順我國(guó)原油價(jià)格與成品油價(jià)格的關(guān)系。
[Abstract]:Based on the domestic and foreign crude oil price data from January 2000 to May 2016, the nonlinear characteristics of the impact of international oil price on domestic oil price are studied empirically by using nonlinear smooth transformation regression (STR) model. The conclusion shows that the impact of international oil price on domestic oil price is significantly different from the difference of international oil price growth rate, and the relationship between them is piecewise characterized and transformed between linear and nonlinear relations. Domestic crude oil prices adjust rapidly to the changes in international crude oil prices; the impact of international oil prices is the key cause of domestic oil price fluctuations; domestic crude oil prices have a certain degree of inertia, due to the timeliness of policy control. Effectively moderated the domestic crude oil price rising trend. Therefore, policy makers should pay attention to the threshold value of the impact effect of international crude oil price on domestic crude oil price and grasp the initiative; the domestic crude oil price level has fully integrated with the international crude oil price level. The direction of the adjustment of oil pricing mechanism is to make oil price reflect the change of supply and demand in domestic oil market, and the relationship between crude oil price and refined oil price should be straightened out as soon as possible.
【作者單位】： 廈門理工學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：教育部人文社會(huì)科學(xué)研究青年基金項(xiàng)目(項(xiàng)目編號(hào):15YJC790045) 福建省自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(項(xiàng)目編號(hào):2016J01342) 福建省社會(huì)科學(xué)規(guī)劃項(xiàng)目(項(xiàng)目編號(hào):2014C043) 福建省中青年教師教育科研資助項(xiàng)目(項(xiàng)目編號(hào):JAS150413) 福建省高校杰出青年科研人才培育計(jì)劃資助 福建省高校新世紀(jì)優(yōu)秀人才支持計(jì)劃資助
【分類號(hào)】：F416.22;F764.1

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