本文選題：預(yù)制工程 + 庫(kù)存管理��； 參考：《武漢大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：工程項(xiàng)目中,根據(jù)項(xiàng)目預(yù)算計(jì)劃,建筑公司需要花費(fèi)大量的資金購(gòu)買建筑材料。因此,在合適的時(shí)間購(gòu)買合適批量的原材料對(duì)建筑公司而言意義重大。相比于現(xiàn)澆混凝土工程項(xiàng)目,預(yù)制混凝土構(gòu)件的應(yīng)用能夠縮短工程周期、改變材料成本組合和減少人工成本,預(yù)制構(gòu)件正在上海等地區(qū)被廣泛運(yùn)用,預(yù)制工程項(xiàng)目原材料采購(gòu)也由此引起研究者關(guān)注。預(yù)制件工程項(xiàng)目的主要建筑原材料包括預(yù)制構(gòu)件、鋼材、混凝土等,預(yù)制構(gòu)件的制作也耗費(fèi)一定比例的鋼材。由于混凝土等材料價(jià)格相對(duì)穩(wěn)定,而鋼材的市場(chǎng)價(jià)格卻是劇烈波動(dòng)的,而本文由此背景出發(fā),通過(guò)預(yù)測(cè)鋼材的市場(chǎng)價(jià)格,并將預(yù)測(cè)的價(jià)格應(yīng)用于項(xiàng)目的原材料采購(gòu)中,使建筑公司在合適的時(shí)間購(gòu)買合適批量的原材料,從而節(jié)約成本。文章首先選取了2015年11月到2016年11月鋼材每日的價(jià)格為樣本,并分別采用了時(shí)間序列模型、線性回歸模型以及二者的組合模型對(duì)鋼材的價(jià)格進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),組合模型是二者按照一定的權(quán)重進(jìn)行組合而來(lái)。時(shí)間序列建模的具體過(guò)程是經(jīng)過(guò)異常值觀測(cè)、平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)、純隨機(jī)性檢驗(yàn)和季節(jié)性分析處理后得出了鋼材價(jià)格的ARIMA(1,1,1),然后利用價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)模型得出了鋼鐵的預(yù)測(cè)價(jià)格。線性回歸模型是基于鋼材價(jià)格可由線性趨勢(shì)表示,而模型中價(jià)格變化斜率也能表示其鋼材價(jià)格變化的快慢。文章再構(gòu)建了結(jié)合原材料采購(gòu)成本、人工成本和融資成本的采購(gòu)模型,同時(shí)再將預(yù)測(cè)的鋼材價(jià)格應(yīng)用到采購(gòu)模型中,最后分別探討了在價(jià)格變化斜率、融資利率以及項(xiàng)目預(yù)制率改變的情況下,項(xiàng)目采購(gòu)策略的最優(yōu)性。為了驗(yàn)證結(jié)合價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)和采購(gòu)模型的有效性,文章以上海某建筑公司的并行工程項(xiàng)目為案例,結(jié)合項(xiàng)目的實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)資料,從實(shí)證的角度分析了預(yù)測(cè)和采購(gòu)模型的重要作用。研究結(jié)果表明,在項(xiàng)目的幾個(gè)參數(shù)發(fā)生變化的情況下,該模型的最優(yōu)采購(gòu)策略總成本比標(biāo)桿策略總成本都小。由此,結(jié)合預(yù)測(cè)技術(shù)和采購(gòu)技術(shù)可以解決價(jià)格不確定性條件下的并行工程項(xiàng)目的原材料采購(gòu)問(wèn)題,這能為建筑企業(yè)訂購(gòu)原材料提供參考。
[Abstract]:According to the project budget, construction companies spend a lot of money on building materials. So buying the right batch of raw materials at the right time means a lot to the construction company. Compared with cast-in-place concrete projects, the application of precast concrete members can shorten the project cycle, change the material cost combination and reduce the labor cost. Prefabricated members are widely used in Shanghai and other areas. The procurement of raw materials for prefabricated projects has also attracted the attention of researchers. The main building raw materials of preform engineering project include prefabricated components, steel, concrete and so on. The production of prefabricated components also consumes a certain proportion of steel. Because the price of concrete and other materials is relatively stable, but the market price of steel is fluctuating violently, this paper, based on this background, forecasts the market price of steel, and applies the predicted price to the purchase of raw materials for the project. Cost savings by enabling the construction company to buy the right batch of raw materials at the right time. Firstly, the daily price of steel from November 2015 to November 2016 is selected as the sample, and the time series model, the linear regression model and the combination model are used to predict the steel price. The combination model is a combination of the two according to a certain weight. The concrete process of time series modeling is to get the price of steel by using the observation of outliers, the test of stationarity, the test of pure randomness and the processing of seasonal analysis. Then, the predicted price of iron and steel is obtained by using the price forecasting model. The linear regression model is based on the fact that the steel price can be expressed by the linear trend, and the slope of the price change in the model can also indicate the speed of the change of the steel price. At the same time, the predicted steel price is applied to the purchasing model. Finally, the slope of price change is discussed. When the financing rate and prefabrication rate change, the project procurement strategy is optimal. In order to verify the validity of combining price forecasting and purchasing model, this paper takes the concurrent engineering project of a construction company in Shanghai as an example, and analyzes the important role of forecasting and purchasing model from the perspective of demonstration. The results show that the total cost of optimal purchasing strategy is lower than that of benchmarking strategy when several parameters of the project are changed. Therefore, combining forecasting technology with purchasing technology can solve the problem of purchasing raw materials for concurrent engineering projects under the condition of price uncertainty, which can provide a reference for construction enterprises to order raw materials.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F274;F426.92

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