本文選題：能源消費　切入點：經濟增長　出處：《內蒙古財經大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：能源是人類賴以生存和發(fā)展的重要物質基礎,人類文明每一次重大進步都伴隨著能源的改進和更替,能源的合理開發(fā)利用和可持續(xù)發(fā)展對世界經濟和人類社會發(fā)展具有重大意義。隨著我國經濟進入新常態(tài),傳統(tǒng)的粗放式、高能耗的經濟發(fā)展方式亟需轉變,如何實現能源與經濟協調發(fā)展又一次成為了人們關注的焦點。呼包鄂三市是內蒙古自治區(qū)經濟增長和能源消費的主要地區(qū),2015年三市GDP總額超過11000億元,占全區(qū)GDP總量的63%;同年,三市的能源消費總量超過8000萬噸標準煤,占內蒙古自治區(qū)當年能源消耗總量的47%,可以說占據了內蒙古能源消費的半壁江山。因此,厘清呼包鄂能源消費與經濟增長的關系對于轉變呼包鄂經濟發(fā)展方式,實現呼包鄂能源消費與經濟增長協調發(fā)展有著極其重要的意義。本文在闡述了能源消費與經濟增長的相關理論基礎上,對呼包鄂能源消費及經濟增長的現狀進行了統(tǒng)計性描述。運用灰色關聯分析方法,從經濟增長與能源消費總量、產業(yè)結構與能源消費兩個角度對呼包鄂能源消費與經濟增長之間的關系進行探究。并利用GM(1,1)模型對呼包鄂未來10年的能源消費情況進行預測。主要結果如下:(1)從各市經濟增長與呼包鄂能源消費總量之間關系的角度:在呼包鄂三市中,鄂爾多斯市的經濟增長與呼包鄂地區(qū)能源消費總量的關聯度最大,其次是包頭市,呼和浩特市的關聯度最小。這說明鄂爾多斯市的經濟增長對呼包鄂地區(qū)能源消費總量的影響最大,呼和浩特市的影響最小,包頭市介于二者之間。同時也可以說明鄂爾多斯市經濟增長對能源消費的依賴程度最強,其次是包頭市,依賴程度最小的是呼和浩特市。(2)從產業(yè)結構與能源消費之間關系的角度:呼和浩特市三次產業(yè)比重的變動與能源消費量關聯度最大的是第三產業(yè),其次是第二產業(yè),最后是第一產業(yè);包頭市第三產業(yè)比重的變動與能源消費量的關聯最大,第二產業(yè)比重的變動對能源消費量也有相大的影響,而第一產業(yè)比重的變動對能源消費量的影響較小;鄂爾多斯市三次產業(yè)比重的變動與能源消費量關聯度最大的是第二產業(yè),其次是第三產業(yè),最后是第一產業(yè)。(3)從未來能源消費量估計的角度:未來十年呼和浩特市的能源消費量緩慢下降,包頭市和鄂爾多斯市的能源消費量則呈上升的趨勢,且鄂爾多斯市的能源消費增長速度較快。最后,本文還就呼包鄂能源消費與經濟增長協調發(fā)展提出了一些政策建議,包括:全面節(jié)約能源,控制能源消費總量;優(yōu)化產業(yè)結構,加快產業(yè)升級;加強技術創(chuàng)新,提高能源利用效率;適度調整經濟增長預期,減輕節(jié)能壓力;積極發(fā)展循環(huán)經濟,實現清潔生產;積極開發(fā)新能源,著力改善能源結構。
[Abstract]:Energy is an important material foundation for human survival and development. Every major progress of human civilization is accompanied by the improvement and replacement of energy.The rational development and sustainable development of energy are of great significance to the world economy and human society.With China's economy entering the new normal, the traditional extensive and high energy consumption economic development mode needs to be changed urgently. How to realize the coordinated development of energy and economy has once again become the focus of attention.Hubao and Hubei are the main areas of economic growth and energy consumption in Inner Mongolia Autonomous region. In 2015, the total GDP of the three cities exceeded 1.1 trillion yuan, accounting for 63 percent of the total GDP of the whole region; in the same year, the total energy consumption of the three cities exceeded 80 million tons of standard coal.Accounted for 47 percent of the total energy consumption in Inner Mongolia, can be said to occupy half of the Inner Mongolia energy consumption.Therefore, it is of great significance to clarify the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Hubao Hubei and to change the mode of economic development and realize the coordinated development of energy consumption and economic growth in Hubao Hubei.Based on the theory of energy consumption and economic growth, this paper gives a statistical description of the current situation of energy consumption and economic growth in Hubao and Hubei.In this paper, the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Hubao and Hubei is studied from the perspectives of economic growth and total energy consumption, industrial structure and energy consumption.The energy consumption of Hubao and Hubei in the next 10 years is predicted by using the GMM1 / 1) model.The main results are as follows: (1) from the angle of the relationship between the economic growth and the total energy consumption of Hubao and Hubei, the economic growth of Ordos is the most closely related to the total energy consumption in Hubao and Hubei, followed by Baotou.Hohhot has the least correlation.This shows that the economic growth of Ordos has the greatest influence on the total energy consumption in Hubao and Hubei, and the influence of Huhhot is the least, and Baotou is somewhere between the two.At the same time, it can also be explained that economic growth in Ordos is the most dependent on energy consumption, followed by Baotou City.From the point of view of the relationship between industrial structure and energy consumption, the third industry, followed by the secondary industry, has the greatest correlation between the change of the third industrial proportion and the energy consumption in Hohhot.The change of the proportion of the tertiary industry in Baotou has the largest correlation with the energy consumption, and the change of the proportion of the secondary industry has a great impact on the energy consumption, while the change of the proportion of the primary industry has little effect on the energy consumption.The second industry, followed by the tertiary industry, has the greatest correlation between the change in the proportion of three industries in Ordos and energy consumption.Finally, from the perspective of the estimation of future energy consumption in the primary industry, the energy consumption in Hohhot city will decline slowly in the next ten years, while the energy consumption in Baotou and Ordos cities will show an upward trend.And Ordos City's energy consumption growth rate is relatively fast.Finally, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on the coordinated development of energy consumption and economic growth in Hubao and Hubei, including: saving energy in an all-round way, controlling the total amount of energy consumption, optimizing industrial structure, speeding up industrial upgrading, strengthening technological innovation.We should improve the efficiency of energy use, adjust the expectation of economic growth, lighten the pressure of energy saving, actively develop circular economy and realize cleaner production, and actively develop new energy sources and improve the energy structure.
【學位授予單位】：內蒙古財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F127;F426.2

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