本文選題：煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)　切入點(diǎn)：供給側(cè)改革　出處：《中國(guó)地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國(guó)的資源稟賦條件決定了煤炭資源是我國(guó)能源結(jié)構(gòu)的主體,伴隨著清潔能源興起的大趨勢(shì),煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展受到了巨大沖擊。現(xiàn)有煤炭資源的區(qū)域分配不均與其經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平不匹配的矛盾依然存在。研究煤炭供給跨區(qū)域效應(yīng)的根本目標(biāo)是優(yōu)化中國(guó)煤炭的跨區(qū)域配置。本文在可持續(xù)發(fā)展理論、一般均衡理論和投入產(chǎn)出理論的指導(dǎo)下,通過(guò)分析中國(guó)煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,發(fā)現(xiàn)煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)存在產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩、利用效率低下、企業(yè)虧損嚴(yán)重以及行業(yè)盈利情況差等問(wèn)題;在對(duì)前人研究成果梳理的基礎(chǔ)上,依據(jù)2010年中國(guó)30省區(qū)市區(qū)域投入產(chǎn)出表編制社會(huì)核算矩陣,從煤炭供給角度,借助乘數(shù)分析和結(jié)構(gòu)路徑分析研究其在區(qū)域間的乘數(shù)效應(yīng),印證其對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展具有重要影響,并量化其影響程度。同時(shí)識(shí)別其主要的影響路徑,尋找關(guān)鍵的節(jié)點(diǎn)部門(mén),為優(yōu)化煤炭跨區(qū)域配置提供參考。乘數(shù)分析實(shí)證結(jié)果表明我國(guó)不存在顯著的直接煤炭資源跨區(qū)域流動(dòng),僅在內(nèi)蒙古煤炭部門(mén)和山西省煤炭部門(mén)出現(xiàn)向河北煤炭部門(mén)直接調(diào)運(yùn)煤炭的情況。此外,工業(yè)部門(mén)的煤炭消費(fèi)貢獻(xiàn)了主要的煤炭消耗。路徑識(shí)別的結(jié)果告訴我們,煤炭?電力路徑存在于主要供給變動(dòng)傳導(dǎo)過(guò)程,且其對(duì)應(yīng)的整體效應(yīng)在三個(gè)主要供給省的傳導(dǎo)路徑中均為最高,貢獻(xiàn)比重最大。本部分運(yùn)用情景分析法來(lái)識(shí)別兩種情景下的復(fù)合回路中存在的高頻節(jié)點(diǎn),情景一下識(shí)別出的關(guān)鍵節(jié)點(diǎn)包括:內(nèi)蒙古的化學(xué)工業(yè),山西省的金屬冶煉及壓延加工業(yè)和非金屬礦物制品業(yè),以及陜西省的通用、專(zhuān)用設(shè)備制造業(yè)。情景二下識(shí)別出的關(guān)鍵節(jié)點(diǎn)則是:其他服務(wù)業(yè)和交通運(yùn)輸和倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)業(yè),此兩部門(mén)在不同區(qū)域同一路徑高頻出現(xiàn)。最后,通過(guò)對(duì)路徑乘數(shù)比較分析,研究發(fā)現(xiàn)我國(guó)煤炭供給變動(dòng)乘數(shù)效應(yīng)被眾多中間節(jié)點(diǎn)擴(kuò)散傳導(dǎo),間接放大其對(duì)總體效應(yīng)的貢獻(xiàn)�；谝陨戏治�,本研究從供給變動(dòng)的視角分析了中國(guó)煤炭供給變動(dòng)對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)和區(qū)域配置的影響。為煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)供給側(cè)改革提出以下政策建議:(1)優(yōu)化生產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)布局,調(diào)整供給結(jié)構(gòu);(2)重點(diǎn)發(fā)展清潔煤電,依靠技術(shù)進(jìn)步突破煤電利用邊界;(3)多維度延伸煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈,重點(diǎn)改造關(guān)鍵節(jié)點(diǎn)產(chǎn)業(yè)。
[Abstract]:The resource endowment condition of our country determines that the coal resource is the main body of the energy structure of our country, accompanied by the rising trend of clean energy. The development of coal industry has been greatly impacted. The contradiction between the uneven regional distribution of coal resources and the mismatch of its economic development level still exists. The fundamental goal of studying the trans-regional effect of coal supply is to optimize coal in China. In this paper, the theory of sustainable development, Under the guidance of general equilibrium theory and input-output theory, it is found that the coal industry has some problems, such as overcapacity, low utilization efficiency, serious enterprise losses and poor industry profit through analyzing the present development situation of China's coal industry. On the basis of combing the previous research results, the social accounting matrix is compiled according to the regional input-output table of 30 provinces and municipalities in China in 2010. From the perspective of coal supply, the multiplier effect between regions is studied by means of multiplier analysis and structural path analysis. To confirm its important impact on economic development and to quantify its impact. At the same time, to identify its main path of influence and to identify key node sectors, The empirical results of multiplier analysis show that there is no significant cross-regional flow of direct coal resources in China. Only in Inner Mongolia coal sector and Shanxi coal sector directly transfer coal to Hebei coal sector. In addition, coal consumption in the industrial sector contributed to the major coal consumption. The electric power path exists in the main supply changing conduction process, and its whole effect is the highest in the three main supply provinces. This part uses scenario analysis to identify the high frequency nodes in the composite loop under the two scenarios. The key nodes identified in the scenario include the chemical industry in Inner Mongolia. The metal smelting and calender processing industry and non-metallic mineral products industry in Shanxi Province, as well as the general and specialized equipment manufacturing industry in Shaanxi Province, have been identified as key nodes under scenario II: other services and transportation and warehousing industries, At last, through the comparative analysis of path multipliers, it is found that the effect of changing multiplier of coal supply in China is diffused by many intermediate nodes. Indirectly amplify its contribution to the overall effect. Based on the above analysis, This study analyzes the impact of coal supply change on industry and regional allocation from the perspective of supply change. It puts forward the following policy recommendations for the supply-side reform of the coal industry: 1) optimizing the layout of production and development. Adjust the supply structure and focus on developing clean coal power, relying on technological progress to break through the boundary of coal and electricity utilization to extend the multi-dimensional coal industry chain, and to focus on the transformation of key node industries.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.21;F127

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