本文選題：經(jīng)濟(jì)新常態(tài)　切入點(diǎn)：電力需求　出處：《內(nèi)蒙古大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：電力工業(yè)是國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)業(yè)和先行產(chǎn)業(yè),并支撐著其他產(chǎn)業(yè)的持續(xù)發(fā)展。近年來(lái),內(nèi)蒙古電力工業(yè)積極落實(shí)國(guó)家能源戰(zhàn)略,加快調(diào)整優(yōu)化能源結(jié)構(gòu),實(shí)現(xiàn)了電力工業(yè)持續(xù)快速發(fā)展,不僅對(duì)地區(qū)煤炭資源的就地轉(zhuǎn)化增值、支撐內(nèi)蒙古冶金、化工等優(yōu)勢(shì)特色產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展,以及內(nèi)蒙古經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的持續(xù)發(fā)展發(fā)揮了重大作用,同時(shí)在支持國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展上也發(fā)揮了重要作用;隨著我國(guó)進(jìn)入經(jīng)濟(jì)新常態(tài)時(shí)期,內(nèi)蒙古電力工業(yè)發(fā)展也面臨著新的挑戰(zhàn)。本文首先對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外關(guān)于電力工業(yè)問題的研究從電力工業(yè)發(fā)展、電力與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系、電力需求預(yù)測(cè)、電力體制改革和內(nèi)蒙古電力工業(yè)發(fā)展研究進(jìn)行文獻(xiàn)綜述;并對(duì)規(guī)制與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)理論和沉沒成本等相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行了梳理。其次在提出電力工業(yè)相關(guān)概念及界定的基礎(chǔ)上,從電力裝機(jī)、發(fā)電量、外送電量、電網(wǎng)建設(shè)和電力需求等方面對(duì)內(nèi)蒙古電力工業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析,認(rèn)為內(nèi)蒙古電力工業(yè)發(fā)展面臨著"窩電"現(xiàn)象日益嚴(yán)重、棄風(fēng)棄光問題嚴(yán)峻、市場(chǎng)需求減少、產(chǎn)能過剩凸顯、自備電廠與公用電廠矛盾加大和電力基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施不完善等問題;并通過分析經(jīng)濟(jì)新常態(tài)下中國(guó)電力市場(chǎng)供給側(cè)和需求側(cè)面臨的形勢(shì)和內(nèi)蒙古電力供需狀況,運(yùn)用回歸分析預(yù)測(cè)法和灰色模型預(yù)測(cè)法對(duì)內(nèi)蒙古未來(lái)五年電力供給和需求進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)。最后結(jié)合內(nèi)蒙古經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展實(shí)際,分析制約內(nèi)蒙古電力工業(yè)發(fā)展的因素,提出積極實(shí)施重大電源點(diǎn)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目、擴(kuò)大需求促進(jìn)電力工業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展、加快完善電力基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、大力推進(jìn)電力科技創(chuàng)新和加強(qiáng)協(xié)調(diào)配合嚴(yán)格電力監(jiān)管等促進(jìn)內(nèi)蒙古電力工業(yè)發(fā)展的對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:The electric power industry is the basic and leading industry of the national economy and supports the sustainable development of other industries. In recent years, Inner Mongolia Electric Power Industry has actively implemented the national energy strategy and accelerated the adjustment and optimization of the energy structure. The sustained and rapid development of the electric power industry has not only played an important role in the local transformation and appreciation of the regional coal resources, in supporting the development of the advantages and characteristics of metallurgy and chemical industry in Inner Mongolia, but also in the sustained economic and social development of Inner Mongolia. At the same time, it has also played an important role in supporting the country's economic and social development. The development of power industry in Inner Mongolia is also facing new challenges. Firstly, this paper studies the problems of power industry at home and abroad, including the development of power industry, the relationship between electricity and economic growth, and the forecast of power demand. The reform of power system and the development of power industry in Inner Mongolia are reviewed, and the theories of regulation and competition, sunk cost and other related theories are summarized. Secondly, based on the concept and definition of electric power industry, the paper puts forward the theory of electric power installation. This paper analyzes the current situation of the development of Inner Mongolia electric power industry from the aspects of power generation, outgoing power supply, power grid construction and power demand, and considers that the development of Inner Mongolia electric power industry is facing the increasingly serious phenomenon of "power generation", and the problem of abandoning wind and abandoning light is serious. The market demand is reduced, the overcapacity is prominent, the contradiction between the self-provided power plant and the utility power plant is increased, and the power infrastructure is not perfect. And through the analysis of the situation facing the supply and demand side of China's electricity market under the new normal state of economy and the supply and demand situation of power supply and demand in Inner Mongolia, The forecast method of regression analysis and grey model is used to forecast the power supply and demand in Inner Mongolia in the next five years. Finally, the factors restricting the development of power industry in Inner Mongolia are analyzed in light of the actual economic and social development of Inner Mongolia. It is proposed to actively implement major power point construction projects, expand demand and promote the sustainable development of the power industry, speed up the improvement of power infrastructure, The countermeasures and suggestions to promote the development of power industry in Inner Mongolia are put forward, such as promoting innovation of electric power science and technology and strengthening coordination, coordination and strict supervision of electric power.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：內(nèi)蒙古大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 齊慧;;新常態(tài)下內(nèi)蒙古主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)的實(shí)證分析和選擇研究[J];內(nèi)蒙古統(tǒng)計(jì);2016年03期

2 朱成章;;中國(guó)電力預(yù)測(cè)回顧[J];中國(guó)電力企業(yè)管理;2015年15期

3 袁家海;雷祺;王楊;;經(jīng)濟(jì)新常態(tài)下中國(guó)電力需求展望及煤電前景分析[J];中國(guó)能源;2015年07期

4 許先紅;;電力體制改革回顧與展望[J];貴州電力技術(shù);2015年04期

5 李有華;程熙昒;孫娟子;;基于對(duì)數(shù)函數(shù)的電力需求預(yù)測(cè)模型構(gòu)建及應(yīng)用[J];首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2015年01期

6 趙建平;王志堅(jiān);陶凱;王靜;;維護(hù)內(nèi)蒙古電力公司市場(chǎng)占有率的措施分析[J];內(nèi)蒙古電力技術(shù);2014年04期

7 羅建國(guó);何百磊;邢翼騰;;我國(guó)電力工業(yè)發(fā)展預(yù)測(cè)[J];中國(guó)能源;2014年06期

8 劉生龍;高宇寧;胡鞍鋼;;電力消費(fèi)與中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)[J];產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2014年03期

9 王志軒;;2050年中國(guó)煤電發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略思考[J];中國(guó)電力企業(yè)管理;2013年15期

10 王大鵬;汪秉文;;基于變權(quán)緩沖灰色模型的中長(zhǎng)期負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)[J];電網(wǎng)技術(shù);2013年01期

相關(guān)重要報(bào)紙文章 前1條

1 吳敬儒;;2005～2030年電力需求預(yù)測(cè)及發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略研究[N];中國(guó)電力報(bào);2007年

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前3條

1 蓋兆軍;基于低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的我國(guó)電力行業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展研究[D];吉林大學(xué);2015年

2 張徐東;低碳背景下電力系統(tǒng)規(guī)劃與運(yùn)營(yíng)模式及決策方法研究[D];華北電力大學(xué);2013年

3 李秋濤;經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長(zhǎng)背景下我國(guó)電力消費(fèi)特征的計(jì)量研究[D];吉林大學(xué);2013年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前6條

1 張振宗;中國(guó)電力發(fā)展的統(tǒng)計(jì)分析與預(yù)測(cè)[D];吉林財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2010年

2 王金雪;山東省電力需求與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展關(guān)系的實(shí)證分析[D];濟(jì)南大學(xué);2009年

3 康國(guó)棟;中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的電力需求及對(duì)環(huán)境的影響分析[D];陜西師范大學(xué);2009年

4 李寶婧;基于規(guī)制與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的我國(guó)電力產(chǎn)業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)模式研究[D];哈爾濱理工大學(xué);2008年

5 舒杰;關(guān)于四川省電力發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的思考[D];西南交通大學(xué);2007年

6 程永建;貴州電力發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀、問題與對(duì)策研究[D];貴州大學(xué);2006年

，

本文編號(hào)：1619095