本文選題：工業(yè)化　切入點(diǎn)：城鎮(zhèn)化　出處：《華東經(jīng)濟(jì)管理》2017年08期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：文章選取山東省17地市2002-2014年面板數(shù)據(jù),采用DEA-Malmquist指數(shù)法對農(nóng)業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)率進(jìn)行測算并以其作為表示農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化的指標(biāo),運(yùn)用面板向量自回歸模型估計(jì)了工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化和農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化(簡稱"三化")的動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系。研究表明:城鎮(zhèn)化和工業(yè)化之間存在顯著的相互促進(jìn)作用,而農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化與兩者(城鎮(zhèn)化和工業(yè)化)之間不存在顯著的關(guān)系;城鎮(zhèn)化與工業(yè)化互為格蘭杰因果關(guān)系,農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化與兩者均不存在格蘭杰因果關(guān)系;工業(yè)化和城鎮(zhèn)化兩者與農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化互動(dòng)關(guān)系較弱導(dǎo)致農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化的發(fā)展滯后。在此基礎(chǔ)上提出了推進(jìn)山東省"三化"同步發(fā)展的政策建議。
[Abstract]:This paper selects the panel data from 2002 to 2014 in 17 cities of Shandong Province, uses DEA-Malmquist index method to measure the agricultural total factor productivity and takes it as the indicator to represent the agricultural modernization, and estimates industrialization by using the panel vector autoregressive model. The dynamic relationship between urbanization and agricultural modernization (abbreviated as "three modernizations"). The study shows that there is a significant mutual promotion between urbanization and industrialization, but there is no significant relationship between agricultural modernization and both (urbanization and industrialization); Urbanization and industrialization are Granger causality, agricultural modernization and both do not exist Granger causality; The weak interaction between industrialization and urbanization and agricultural modernization leads to the lagging of the development of agricultural modernization. On this basis, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions for promoting the simultaneous development of the "three modernizations" in Shandong Province.
【作者單位】： 山東理工大學(xué)商學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家軟科學(xué)研究計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2012GXS4D090) 國家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(71371112) 山東省自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(ZR2012GM020)
【分類號】：F299.27;F327;F427
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本文編號：1559994