本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于熵權(quán)法與模糊風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的EPC項(xiàng)目投標(biāo)決策研究　出處：《西安科技大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： EPC項(xiàng)目 投標(biāo)決策 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià) 模糊層次分析法 熵權(quán)法

【摘要】：EPC總承包模式以高速度、低成本地建造大型工業(yè)項(xiàng)目和高層建筑而在國(guó)際建設(shè)工程領(lǐng)域備受青睞。由于通常采用總價(jià)合同方式,EPC承包商承擔(dān)著項(xiàng)目建設(shè)的大多數(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),從而使項(xiàng)目的投標(biāo)決策顯得尤為重要。本文從選取最符合企業(yè)發(fā)展的EPC項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行投標(biāo)的角度出發(fā),將投標(biāo)決策劃分為兩個(gè)階段,第一階段為初步投標(biāo)決策,主要任務(wù)是從招投標(biāo)市場(chǎng)篩選出符合企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)的EPC項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行投標(biāo)跟蹤,即項(xiàng)目篩選階段;第二階段是最終投標(biāo)決策,即通過(guò)投標(biāo)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析確定是否投標(biāo),并給出投標(biāo)建議以及投標(biāo)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理策略。在項(xiàng)目篩選階段,結(jié)合企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo),運(yùn)用熵權(quán)理論建立了初步投標(biāo)決策模型;而在最終投標(biāo)決策階段,運(yùn)用模糊風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)法考慮項(xiàng)目層面的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)大小,建立基于項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的最終投標(biāo)決策模型。具體地,采用定性和定量相結(jié)合的方式,結(jié)合德?tīng)柗品ㄅc模糊層次分析法確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)體系的權(quán)重,并結(jié)合專(zhuān)家調(diào)查法與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)矩陣判定各底層風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)等級(jí),利用模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法將權(quán)重與底層風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)等級(jí)綜合,計(jì)算出所有層級(jí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)等級(jí)的值,之后,根據(jù)企業(yè)可接受風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管控范圍,解決是否投標(biāo)的問(wèn)題。此外,文中還構(gòu)建出EPC項(xiàng)目投標(biāo)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策的流程圖,以利于企業(yè)投標(biāo)決策的實(shí)施。將熵權(quán)法與模糊風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)有機(jī)結(jié)合起來(lái)進(jìn)行投標(biāo)決策,揚(yáng)長(zhǎng)避短、優(yōu)勢(shì)互補(bǔ),可以克服僅采用熵權(quán)理論進(jìn)行投標(biāo)決策信息不完整性戰(zhàn)略投標(biāo)決策的深度不足的問(wèn)題,同時(shí)也有效地改善了僅采用模糊風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)進(jìn)行投標(biāo)決策時(shí)受決策者專(zhuān)業(yè)知識(shí)的限制及其主觀偏好等因素的影響。采用兩階段投標(biāo)決策使決策更為科學(xué)合理,同時(shí)也能提高決策的效率,具有很好的實(shí)用價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:The EPC general contracting mode is popular in the international construction engineering field because of its high speed and low cost in the construction of large industrial projects and high-rise buildings. The EPC contractor bears most of the risks of the project construction, which makes the bidding decision of the project seem particularly important. This paper starts from the point of view of selecting the EPC project which is the most suitable for the development of the enterprise. The bidding decision is divided into two stages. The first stage is the initial bidding decision. The main task is to screen out the EPC projects which accord with the strategic objectives of the enterprise from the bidding market, that is, the project screening stage; The second stage is the final bidding decision, that is, through the bidding risk analysis to determine whether to bid, and give the bidding proposal and bidding risk management strategy. In the project screening stage, combined with the strategic objectives of the enterprise. A preliminary bidding decision model is established by using entropy weight theory. In the final bidding decision-making stage, the fuzzy risk evaluation method is used to consider the risk level of the project level, and the final bidding decision model based on project risk management is established. Using the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods combined with Delphi method and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of the risk index system and combined with the expert survey method and risk matrix to determine the bottom level of risk indicators. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to synthesize the weight with the bottom risk index grade, and then calculate the value of all levels of risk index grade, and then, according to the acceptable risk level and risk control range of the enterprise. In addition, the flow chart of EPC project bidding risk decision is constructed. In order to facilitate the implementation of enterprise bidding decision, the entropy weight method and fuzzy risk evaluation are organically combined to make bidding decision, which takes advantage of advantages and avoids weaknesses. It is possible to overcome the problem of insufficient depth of bidding decision-making based on entropy weight theory. At the same time, it also effectively improves the decision making with fuzzy risk evaluation, which is influenced by the decision makers' professional knowledge and subjective preferences. The two-stage bidding decision makes the decision more scientific and reasonable. At the same time, it can improve the efficiency of decision-making and has good practical value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.92

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