本文選題：橡膠制品 + 產(chǎn)業(yè)安全��； 參考：《中國海洋大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)和科學(xué)技術(shù)的不斷發(fā)展，橡膠及其制品已越來越成為人們無法離開的重要物資，我國橡膠及其制品的出口額也呈現(xiàn)遞增的態(tài)勢；但是，對(duì)我國橡膠制品出口設(shè)置的反傾銷、知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)及技術(shù)貿(mào)易等新型壁壘也隨之水漲船高，致使貿(mào)易摩擦案件增多，并且涉及的范圍越來越廣。本文專門對(duì)我國橡膠制品出口所遭遇的貿(mào)易摩擦進(jìn)行研究，通過分析其作用機(jī)制和對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)以及國內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)安全產(chǎn)生的負(fù)面效應(yīng)，提出建立預(yù)警機(jī)制，并提供相應(yīng)的對(duì)策建議。這對(duì)于減少橡膠制品出口貿(mào)易摩擦具有一定的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文在貿(mào)易摩擦、產(chǎn)業(yè)安全理論以及預(yù)警理論基礎(chǔ)上，探究了橡膠制品出口遭遇貿(mào)易摩擦對(duì)國內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)安全的影響，運(yùn)用了計(jì)量模型分析中美橡膠制品貿(mào)易摩擦對(duì)我國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的效應(yīng)。結(jié)果顯示，物質(zhì)資本和人力資本都對(duì)我國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值具有推動(dòng)作用，前者每增加一個(gè)單位的投入，國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值會(huì)增加0.08個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，后者每增加一單位投入，國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值會(huì)提高0.54個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；而貿(mào)易摩擦和國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值之間存在著明顯的負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系：美國對(duì)華橡膠制品出口貿(mào)易摩擦每增加一個(gè)單位，我國的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值就會(huì)減少0.01個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，雖然這個(gè)數(shù)值并不太大，但由于我國經(jīng)濟(jì)基數(shù)較大，美國對(duì)華橡膠制品貿(mào)易摩擦加劇會(huì)使我國經(jīng)濟(jì)遭受到一定的損失。 然后提出建立應(yīng)對(duì)我國橡膠制品出口摩擦的預(yù)警機(jī)制，根據(jù)傾銷因素、非傾銷因素和對(duì)進(jìn)口國構(gòu)成產(chǎn)業(yè)損害三個(gè)方面確定預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系，然后利用采用問卷調(diào)查結(jié)果和層次分析法確定各個(gè)指標(biāo)的權(quán)重大小。從得到的指標(biāo)權(quán)重來看，我國橡膠制品的出口量、出口價(jià)格以及國內(nèi)產(chǎn)量、銷售量和銷售價(jià)格變化率都對(duì)我國橡膠制品出口受阻影響較大，權(quán)重都大于0.1，其中出口量及變化率影響最大，達(dá)到了0.1811；另外，市場集中度、出口品在進(jìn)口國所占的市場份額及增長率和進(jìn)口國橡膠制品行業(yè)的失業(yè)率這三個(gè)指標(biāo)所占權(quán)重也較高，都在0.06以上，，尤其是出口市場集中度，達(dá)到了0.0996。 本文最后提出了應(yīng)對(duì)貿(mào)易摩擦的對(duì)策建議：政府應(yīng)當(dāng)凈化橡膠制品出口市場，并積極利用WTO貿(mào)易爭端解決機(jī)制；行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)要協(xié)調(diào)好政府和企業(yè)之間、企業(yè)和企業(yè)之間的關(guān)系，并提供信息咨詢；企業(yè)應(yīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)多元化生產(chǎn)、開發(fā)新市場并提高生產(chǎn)技術(shù)水平。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of world economy and science and technology, rubber and its products have become more and more important materials that people can't leave. The export value of rubber and its products in China is also increasing. Anti-dumping, intellectual property rights and technology trade and other new barriers to the export of China's rubber products are also rising, resulting in more and more cases of trade friction, and the scope involved is more and more extensive. This paper studies the trade frictions encountered in the export of rubber products in China. By analyzing the mechanism of its action and the negative effects on the macro-economy and the domestic industrial security, the paper puts forward the establishment of an early warning mechanism and provides corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. This for reducing rubber products export trade friction has a certain theoretical and practical significance. On the basis of trade friction, industrial safety theory and early warning theory, this paper probes into the impact of trade friction on domestic industrial safety caused by the export of rubber products. The econometric model is used to analyze the effect of Sino-American rubber products trade friction on China's macro economy. The results show that both physical capital and human capital have a catalytic effect on China's GDP. For each additional unit of input from the former, the GDP will increase by 0.08 percentage points, while the latter will increase by one unit per unit. The gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 0.54 percentage points; and there is a significant negative correlation between trade friction and GDP: every unit of trade friction in US rubber products exports to China is increased by one unit. China's GDP will be reduced by 0.01 percentage points, although this value is not too large, but because of the large economic base of our country, the intensified trade friction between the United States and China will cause certain losses to our economy. Then it puts forward the establishment of an early warning mechanism to deal with the export friction of rubber products in China. According to the three aspects of dumping factors, non-dumping factors and industrial injury to the importing countries, the early warning index system is determined. Then the weight of each index is determined by questionnaire survey and analytic hierarchy process. Judging from the index weights obtained, the export volume, export price, domestic output, sales volume and sales price change rate of China's rubber products have a great impact on the hindrance of our country's rubber products exports. The weights are all greater than 0.1, of which the export volume and the rate of change have the greatest influence, reaching 0.1811; in addition, the market concentration, The market share and growth rate of exports in importing countries and the unemployment rate of rubber products industry in importing countries were also higher, all above 0.06, especially the concentration of export markets, which reached 0.0996. Finally, the paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for dealing with trade frictions: the government should purify the export market of rubber products and make active use of WTO trade dispute settlement mechanism, trade associations should coordinate the relationship between government and enterprises, and between enterprises and enterprises. The enterprise should realize diversified production, develop new market and improve production technology level.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F752.02;F426.72

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