本文選題：中新FTA + 實施現(xiàn)狀��； 參考：《南京大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：在全球多邊貿(mào)易談判進程受阻的背景下,為減少與他國進行經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易活動時的壁壘增強本國產(chǎn)業(yè)的競爭力,組建或加入自由貿(mào)易區(qū)(FTA)成為許多國家心儀的選擇。身處區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化的浪潮中,中國也高度重視自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略,迄今為止已經(jīng)簽訂了 13個自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定,其中與新西蘭簽訂的FTA是中國第一個涵蓋貨物貿(mào)易、服務(wù)貿(mào)易、投資及知識產(chǎn)權(quán)等其他多個領(lǐng)域的自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定,協(xié)定于2008年10月1日開始實施。中新FTA規(guī)定在2016年前新西蘭取消全部對中國進口產(chǎn)品的關(guān)稅,中方則在2019年前取消97.2%自新進口產(chǎn)品關(guān)稅,由此可見中新FTA的覆蓋率十分高,但利用原產(chǎn)地證書金額計算出的中國企業(yè)對中新FTA的利用率卻只有2%。在雙方貿(mào)易與投資現(xiàn)狀中我們也看到中新FTA的簽訂對中國出口到新西蘭的促進作用不如對進口自新西蘭的促進作用明顯,對雙向FDI的流量促進作用則十分明顯,因此采取合理科學(xué)的實證方法研究FTA的貿(mào)易效應(yīng),亦即中新FTA的簽訂對兩國雙邊貿(mào)易總額的影響,是諸多學(xué)者也是本文研究的重點。本文利用國外政策研究領(lǐng)域逐漸開始使用的合成控制法來研究中新FTA的簽訂對雙邊貿(mào)易的影響,具體來說就是將中新FTA的簽訂視為一項自然實驗,將新西蘭作為處理組,同時利用若干個其他國家適當?shù)木�性組合來構(gòu)造一個"合成控制國家"作為對照組,利用數(shù)據(jù)驅(qū)動的方法估算對照組的權(quán)重,然后將"真實新西蘭"與"合成新西蘭"進行對比分析。本文在考慮地區(qū)集中度與經(jīng)濟差異度的情況下選取29個國家,這29個國家在2003至2013年間都沒有與中國簽訂過FTA,被解釋變量為中國與包括新西蘭在內(nèi)的30個國家的雙邊貿(mào)易總額,選取的影響雙邊貿(mào)易總額的預(yù)測變量為這30個國家的GDP總額、人均收入及與中國之間的地理距離。利用Stata模擬結(jié)果顯示,愛爾蘭、烏拉圭、黎巴嫩在合成新西蘭的權(quán)重中為正,這三個國家擬合的合成新西蘭在2008年政策實施之前各項變量與真實的新西蘭都較為接近,雙邊貿(mào)易總額的增長路徑也十分貼近,說明在研究中國與新西蘭的政策效應(yīng)時可以采取合成控制法,而在比較2009至2013年間合成新西蘭與真實新西蘭同中國雙邊貿(mào)易總額的差距時我們看到,合成新西蘭與中國的雙邊貿(mào)易總額均值僅為真實新西蘭貿(mào)易總額均值的50%左右,同時將合成新西蘭與真實新西蘭分別作為對照組和處理組利用DID模型進行回歸分析,得出與合成控制法相似的結(jié)論。可以說由于中國與新西蘭FTA的簽訂兩國間的貿(mào)易便利大大增加,貿(mào)易壁壘被極大的減少,自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的政策對兩國貿(mào)易額的增長作用十分顯著。針對中新FTA對兩國貿(mào)易的顯著影響以及中國企業(yè)對FTA利用率低下的現(xiàn)狀,本文認為我國政府應(yīng)當繼續(xù)升級深化現(xiàn)有的自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定,各級政府部門與商會合作加強FTA宣傳,同時注意加強網(wǎng)絡(luò)平臺的利用,讓FTA政策真正惠國惠民。
[Abstract]:In the backdrop of the global multilateral trade negotiation process, in order to reduce the barriers to trade with other countries to enhance the competitiveness of the domestic industry, the formation or accession to the free trade area (FTA) has become a choice for many countries. In the wave of regional economic integration, China attaches great importance to the development strategy of the free trade zone. So far, 13 free trade agreements have been signed, of which FTA, signed with New Zealand, is China's first free trade agreement in many other fields, including goods trade, service trade, investment and intellectual property rights. The agreement was implemented in October 1, 2008. The China new FTA stipulated that New Zealand abolished all imports to China before 2016. The product tariff, China cancelled 97.2% new imported products by 2019, it can be seen that the coverage rate of the new FTA is very high, but the use of the certificate of origin calculated by Chinese enterprises to China and new FTA is only 2%. in the current situation of bilateral trade and investment, we also see the signing of China's new FTA to the new West. The promotion effect of orchid is not as obvious as the promotion effect on import from New Zealand, and it is very obvious to the flow of two-way FDI. Therefore, it is also the focus of this article to take a reasonable and scientific empirical method to study the trade effect of FTA, that is, the effect of the signing of the new FTA on bilateral trade of the two countries. The synthetic control method, which is gradually used in the field of foreign policy research, is used to study the impact of the signing of the new FTA on bilateral trade. Specifically, the signing of China and the new FTA is considered as a natural experiment. New Zealand is taken as a processing group and a "synthetic control country" is constructed by using the appropriate linear combination of several other countries as a pair. A data driven method was used to estimate the weight of the control group, and then the "real New Zealand" was compared with "synthetic New Zealand". In this paper, 29 countries were selected in the case of regional concentration and economic difference, and the 29 countries had not signed FTA with China between 2003 and 2013, and the variables were interpreted as China and the package. The total amount of bilateral trade in 30 countries, including New Zealand, is selected to predict the total GDP of the 30 countries, per capita income and the geographical distance between China. The results of Stata simulation show that Ireland, Uruguay, and Lebanon are in the right of the weight of the New Zealand, and the three countries fit in. Before the implementation of New Zealand in 2008, the various variables are close to the real New Zealand, and the growth path of bilateral trade is also close. It shows that the synthetic control method can be adopted when studying the policy effect of China and New Zealand, and New Zealand and real Zealand and China are made bilateral in the period from 2009 to 2013. We see that the total trade volume gap is only about 50% of the total value of real Zealand Trade in the total value of New Zealand and China. At the same time, the synthetic New Zealand and real New Zealand are used as control group and processing group, and the DID model is used for regression analysis, which can be said to be similar to the synthetic control method. Due to the great increase in trade facilitation between China and New Zealand FTA, trade barriers have been greatly reduced, and the policy of free trade agreements has a significant effect on the growth of the trade volume between the two countries. In view of the significant impact of the new FTA on the trade between the two countries and the current situation of the low utilization rate of FTA for Chinese enterprises, this article holds that our government should As we continue to upgrade the existing free trade agreements, government departments at all levels cooperate with the chamber of Commerce to strengthen the FTA propaganda, and pay attention to strengthening the use of the network platform so that the FTA policy is truly benefiting the nation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F742
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本文編號：2013453