【摘要】：綜合應(yīng)用定性與定量分析方法,分析美國(guó)宣布退出《巴黎協(xié)定》的原因,評(píng)估美國(guó)退出《巴黎協(xié)定》對(duì)《巴黎協(xié)定》履約前景的影響并提出中國(guó)的應(yīng)對(duì)策略。美國(guó)宣布退出《巴黎協(xié)定》是全球氣候治理的重大事件,將對(duì)《巴黎協(xié)定》的履約產(chǎn)生多重影響,包括將對(duì)《巴黎協(xié)定》的普遍性構(gòu)成嚴(yán)重傷害,動(dòng)搖以《巴黎協(xié)定》為核心的國(guó)際氣候治理體制的基礎(chǔ);將導(dǎo)致《巴黎協(xié)定》履約中的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力赤字問(wèn)題顯著惡化;可能引發(fā)不良示范效應(yīng),降低國(guó)際氣候合作信心;將會(huì)對(duì)其他地區(qū)碳排放空間形成不可忽視的擠壓,進(jìn)而推高其他地區(qū)碳減排成本;美國(guó)大幅削減國(guó)際氣候援助資金將削弱發(fā)展中國(guó)家減緩和適應(yīng)氣候變化的能力;美國(guó)延遲采取氣候行動(dòng)可能導(dǎo)致全球減排錯(cuò)失最佳時(shí)間窗口;美國(guó)大幅削減氣候變化基礎(chǔ)研究經(jīng)費(fèi)將對(duì)未來(lái)全球氣候科學(xué)研究產(chǎn)生不利影響,進(jìn)而影響《巴黎協(xié)定》履約談判的權(quán)威性等,最后顯著加大實(shí)現(xiàn)溫控目標(biāo)的難度,甚至導(dǎo)致目標(biāo)無(wú)法實(shí)現(xiàn)。就全球氣候治理的全局而言,全球氣候治理的框架不會(huì)坍塌,但確實(shí)會(huì)受到動(dòng)搖;全球氣候治理的進(jìn)程不會(huì)逆轉(zhuǎn),但確實(shí)會(huì)遲滯。美國(guó)宣布退出《巴黎協(xié)定》使中國(guó)面臨多重挑戰(zhàn),其中之一是中國(guó)面臨急劇上升的期望中國(guó)承擔(dān)全球氣候治理領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的國(guó)際壓力。為此,中國(guó)對(duì)內(nèi)應(yīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)國(guó)家自主貢獻(xiàn)的上限目標(biāo),對(duì)外應(yīng)積極重建全球氣候治理集體領(lǐng)導(dǎo)體制,即用C5取代G2,同時(shí)繼續(xù)努力改變美國(guó)對(duì)氣候變化的消極立場(chǎng)。
[Abstract]:By using qualitative and quantitative methods, this paper analyzes the reasons why the United States announced its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, evaluates the impact of the withdrawal of the United States on the prospect of the Paris Agreement and puts forward China's countermeasures. The announcement of the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement is a major event in global climate governance that will have multiple implications for the implementation of the Paris Agreement, including serious harm to the universality of the Paris Agreement, Shake the foundations of the international climate governance system with the Paris Agreement at its core; will lead to a significant deterioration of the leadership deficit in the implementation of the Paris Agreement; may trigger adverse demonstration effects and reduce confidence in international climate cooperation; There will be an unnegligible squeeze on carbon emissions in other regions, which will push up the cost of reducing carbon emissions in other regions; a sharp reduction in international climate aid funding by the United States will weaken the ability of developing countries to mitigate and adapt to climate change; The delay in climate action by the United States could lead to missing the best window of time for global emissions reductions; a sharp reduction in funding for basic research on climate change in the United States will have adverse effects on future global climate science research. Then it affects the authority of the Paris Agreement implementation negotiation, and finally increases the difficulty of achieving the temperature control target, and even leads to the failure to achieve the target. In the overall context of global climate governance, the global climate governance framework will not collapse, but it will be shaken; the process of global climate governance will not be reversed, but it will lag. One of the many challenges facing China as the United States announces its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is the sharp rise in expectations that China will assume international pressure to lead global climate governance. For this reason, China should realize the upper limit goal of national independent contribution at home and abroad should actively rebuild the collective leadership system of global climate governance, that is, replace G2 with C5, and continue to make efforts to change the negative position of the United States on climate change.
【作者單位】： 北京大學(xué)國(guó)際關(guān)系學(xué)院;北京大學(xué)環(huán)境科學(xué)與工程學(xué)院;美國(guó)華盛頓大學(xué);科技部21世紀(jì)議程管理中心;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金委員會(huì)管理科學(xué)部2017年應(yīng)急管理項(xiàng)目“美國(guó)退出《巴黎協(xié)定》對(duì)全球氣候治理的影響及我國(guó)的應(yīng)對(duì)策略”
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：D871.2;D996.9;P467
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本文編號(hào)：2249512