本文選題：IPO定價(jià) + 新股破發(fā)�。� 參考：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2011年碩士論文

【摘要】：2010年新股破發(fā)在各個(gè)板塊全面開(kāi)花,擊破了“新股不敗”的神話。因此在目前新股破發(fā)的大環(huán)境下研究如何給新股制定合理的發(fā)行價(jià)格已經(jīng)成為理論界和實(shí)務(wù)界爭(zhēng)相討論的熱點(diǎn)話題。IPO定價(jià)合理可以保證上市公司新股發(fā)行成功,籌集到自己需要的資金,同時(shí)也能保證投資者理性投資,促進(jìn)資本在一、二級(jí)市場(chǎng)之間最優(yōu)化配置,從而能夠推動(dòng)我國(guó)證券市場(chǎng)整體健康發(fā)展。造成目前新股破發(fā)的根本原因是“三高”(高發(fā)行價(jià)、高市盈率、超額募集資金)問(wèn)題,使得發(fā)行價(jià)格遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)偏離公司的內(nèi)在價(jià)值,而新股破發(fā)能夠倒逼價(jià)值的回歸。這次新股破發(fā)使得對(duì)新股發(fā)行制度改革的呼吁聲越來(lái)越大,而新股發(fā)行制度改革的核心是定價(jià)機(jī)制的改革,改革的目標(biāo)是實(shí)現(xiàn)新股市場(chǎng)化定價(jià)。市場(chǎng)化的定價(jià)是買(mǎi)賣(mài)雙方的市場(chǎng)化行為,在沒(méi)有政府干預(yù)的情況下,買(mǎi)方真實(shí)表達(dá)自己的意愿,新股的價(jià)格由股票的供求來(lái)決定。另外,市場(chǎng)化定價(jià)不能簡(jiǎn)單的以市盈率的高低來(lái)檢驗(yàn)。因?yàn)槭杏实拇_定是在一級(jí)市場(chǎng)定價(jià)過(guò)程中發(fā)行人、承銷(xiāo)商以及投資者相互博弈的結(jié)果,它會(huì)隨著市場(chǎng)環(huán)境、發(fā)行人或投資者的預(yù)期變化而改變。通過(guò)發(fā)行情況來(lái)檢驗(yàn)定價(jià)是否合理,如是否引發(fā)上市首日破發(fā)或發(fā)行失敗,這才是更符合市場(chǎng)化定價(jià)的方式。 目前有關(guān)工PO定價(jià)的基本理論發(fā)展比較完善,且在國(guó)外成熟市場(chǎng)上運(yùn)用得比較成功。但是這一成熟的理論體系在我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)上卻沒(méi)有得到很好的運(yùn)用。其原因除了對(duì)定價(jià)理論認(rèn)識(shí)不足、我國(guó)股市發(fā)展歷史短暫,市場(chǎng)不成熟、投資者跟風(fēng),市場(chǎng)炒作行為嚴(yán)重,不能理性對(duì)待投資外,筆者認(rèn)為最重要的原因可能是由于絕大部分發(fā)行人或承銷(xiāo)商在IPO估值過(guò)程中所選用的定價(jià)方法是不對(duì)的。 因此本文的研究對(duì)象就是在新股破發(fā)的背景下對(duì)我國(guó)滬市A股IPO定價(jià)的影響因素進(jìn)行定性與定量相結(jié)合的分析,找出對(duì)IPO定價(jià)有重要影響的內(nèi)外部因素,以期利用這些內(nèi)外部影響因素建立回歸模型從而建立一套適合中國(guó)目前國(guó)情的IPO定價(jià)模型來(lái)改善上市公司的定價(jià)方式并提高定價(jià)效率。 全文共分為六章： 第一章是引言,主要介紹了研究的背景及意義、國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)綜述、本文的研究思路和方法以及論文的創(chuàng)新之處與不足之處。本文的創(chuàng)新之處有如下幾點(diǎn)：1、本文首次將新股破發(fā)與滬市A股IPO定價(jià)相結(jié)合分析并進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,最終建立的滬市A股IPO多因素定價(jià)模型能夠有效地降低破發(fā)的概率；2、本文樣本數(shù)據(jù)包括了從2006年5月18日新老劃斷后到2010年12月31日在上海證券交易所IPO上市的所有A股,時(shí)間跨度較大,且在這一時(shí)間段內(nèi),證券市場(chǎng)經(jīng)歷了牛市、熊市和震蕩市等各種形態(tài),由此得到的實(shí)證結(jié)論具有代表性,更具有說(shuō)服力。 第二章主要介紹了新股破發(fā)的現(xiàn)象與原因。自2009年6月IPO第七次重啟以來(lái),滬深股市迎來(lái)最大的IPO發(fā)行高潮,新股發(fā)行接踵而至,發(fā)行數(shù)量和強(qiáng)度很大。由于長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)我國(guó)大多數(shù)投資者普遍存在“新股不敗”和“申購(gòu)到新股就可以獲得高額無(wú)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)收益”的錯(cuò)誤認(rèn)識(shí),“逢新必炒”的投機(jī)氛圍嚴(yán)重,機(jī)構(gòu)投資者長(zhǎng)期忽視對(duì)股票價(jià)值的深入研究,不能真正發(fā)揮其專業(yè)定價(jià)能力,在詢價(jià)過(guò)程中存在隨意報(bào)價(jià)的現(xiàn)象,直接結(jié)果是新股發(fā)行市盈率遠(yuǎn)超二級(jí)市場(chǎng)同行業(yè)平均水平。隨著2009年6月以后新股定價(jià)行政指導(dǎo)的淡化,新股“新股破發(fā)”現(xiàn)象擊敗了新股不敗的神話。破發(fā)的根本原因是“三高”問(wèn)題,新股定價(jià)超出其投資價(jià)值,高倍市盈率溢價(jià)發(fā)行,受益最大的只有發(fā)行人和承銷(xiāo)商,投資者的利益受到極大的損害。隨著新股破發(fā)的愈演愈烈,新股發(fā)行機(jī)制的改革也提上日程,而改革的核心是定價(jià)機(jī)制的改革,最終實(shí)現(xiàn)市場(chǎng)化定價(jià)。 第三章主要介紹了現(xiàn)有主要的IPO定價(jià)理論與定價(jià)模型。國(guó)際上流行的IPO定價(jià)理論主要有內(nèi)在價(jià)值理論、資本資產(chǎn)定價(jià)理論、套利定價(jià)理論。主要的IPO定價(jià)模型有貼現(xiàn)模型(股利貼現(xiàn)模型和現(xiàn)金流貼現(xiàn)模型)、可比公司法(市盈率倍數(shù)法、市凈率倍數(shù)法、市銷(xiāo)率倍數(shù)法)、實(shí)物期權(quán)定價(jià)模型、多因素定價(jià)模型。我國(guó)目前在如何選擇合適的IPO定價(jià)模型過(guò)程中存在以下幾點(diǎn)問(wèn)題：1、上市公司的財(cái)務(wù)信息以及非財(cái)務(wù)信息的披露缺乏完整性和及時(shí)性,使得會(huì)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)失真和不完整；2、由于很多IPO定價(jià)估值模型是在國(guó)外成熟證券市場(chǎng)的基礎(chǔ)上提出來(lái)的,我國(guó)證券市場(chǎng)發(fā)展歷史較短,且處于轉(zhuǎn)型期,無(wú)法滿足一些估值模型所要求的前提條件如有效市場(chǎng)假設(shè)；3、估值模型中的有些變量難以預(yù)測(cè),如貼現(xiàn)模型中的貼現(xiàn)率、股利增長(zhǎng)率等,另外由于我國(guó)證券市場(chǎng)處于發(fā)展期,很多變量的選取都沒(méi)有標(biāo)準(zhǔn)可以參照,完全由使用者自行選取并修改,因此帶有一定的主觀性,從而降低了估值結(jié)果的有效性和可比性。通過(guò)分析和對(duì)比,筆者認(rèn)為在我國(guó)目前證券市場(chǎng)的現(xiàn)狀下使用市盈率倍數(shù)法與多因素定價(jià)模型相結(jié)合的估值模型比較合適。市盈率倍數(shù)法與多因素定價(jià)模型相結(jié)合,可以考慮將行業(yè)平均市盈率作為影響IPO定價(jià)的因素。多因素定價(jià)模型就是將影響IPO定價(jià)的所有因素與新股發(fā)行價(jià)建立回歸方程,通過(guò)實(shí)證分析最終建立IPO定價(jià)預(yù)測(cè)模型,從而能夠有效地指導(dǎo)新股發(fā)行價(jià)格的制定。 第四章主要介紹IPO定價(jià)機(jī)制以及定價(jià)機(jī)制在我國(guó)的變遷�，F(xiàn)有的IPO定價(jià)機(jī)制有固定價(jià)格定價(jià)機(jī)制、拍賣(mài)定價(jià)機(jī)制、累計(jì)投標(biāo)定價(jià)機(jī)制以及混合定價(jià)機(jī)制。中國(guó)證券市場(chǎng)在其短短十幾年的發(fā)展歷程中新股定價(jià)機(jī)制經(jīng)歷了一系列復(fù)雜的變遷：固定價(jià)格階段→短暫的網(wǎng)上競(jìng)價(jià)階段→相對(duì)固定市盈率階段→累計(jì)投標(biāo)定價(jià)階段→控制市盈率定價(jià)階段→詢價(jià)制。盡管目前我國(guó)實(shí)行的是詢價(jià)制,但該詢價(jià)制是不完善的,其定價(jià)效率遠(yuǎn)沒(méi)有達(dá)到真正意義上的市場(chǎng)化定價(jià)效果。 第五章主要介紹IPO多因素定價(jià)模型的建立以及實(shí)證分析。文中將影響IPO定價(jià)的因素分為內(nèi)部因素和外部因素。內(nèi)部因素是指在定價(jià)過(guò)程中能夠直接反映上市公司增長(zhǎng)能力和發(fā)展前景的各因素的綜合,在總結(jié)前人研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,本文從眾多指標(biāo)中選取了19個(gè)財(cái)務(wù)比率來(lái)對(duì)上市公司的盈利能力、償債能力、成長(zhǎng)能力、運(yùn)營(yíng)能力等各個(gè)方面進(jìn)行描述。所謂的外部影響因素是與內(nèi)部因素對(duì)立的,不能直接決定上市公司的內(nèi)在價(jià)值,但是卻能影響IPO定價(jià)各個(gè)因素的集合。本文選取了市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)情況、行業(yè)平均市盈率、上市公司新股發(fā)行規(guī)模、承銷(xiāo)商等級(jí)這四個(gè)方面來(lái)對(duì)外部影響情況進(jìn)行描述與分析。在對(duì)這些影響因素進(jìn)行定性分析后,本文運(yùn)用SPSS軟件對(duì)選取的在上海證券交易所IPO上市的79只A股作為研究樣本進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。由于選取的19個(gè)內(nèi)部影響因素之間存在較高的多重共線性,同時(shí)為了將眾多的自變量降維,首先運(yùn)用因子分析法將這19個(gè)自變量壓縮為6個(gè)因子,然后將這6個(gè)因子變量與另外5個(gè)外部影響變量進(jìn)行逐步回歸,根據(jù)逐步回歸結(jié)果以及實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)最終得到IPO定價(jià)回歸方程。最后對(duì)實(shí)證結(jié)果進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)分析,在眾多影響因素中只有每股資本公積、每股收益、每股凈資產(chǎn)、每股未分配利潤(rùn)、主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)利潤(rùn)率、凈利潤(rùn)率、總資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率、凈資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率、行業(yè)平均市盈率、發(fā)行規(guī)模、發(fā)行前市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等因素對(duì)滬市A股IPO定價(jià)有顯著性影響。最后用該估值模型對(duì)2011年1月份在滬市上市首日破發(fā)的A股定價(jià)做估值并與實(shí)際發(fā)行價(jià)對(duì)比,發(fā)現(xiàn)實(shí)際發(fā)行價(jià)遠(yuǎn)大于預(yù)測(cè)值,這也驗(yàn)證了新股發(fā)行價(jià)格高是導(dǎo)致新股破發(fā)的原因。 第六章結(jié)論與建議。首先對(duì)本文進(jìn)行總結(jié),認(rèn)為本文中所建立的IPO多因素定價(jià)預(yù)測(cè)模型能夠有效地減少新股破發(fā)的現(xiàn)象；最后就如何進(jìn)一步促進(jìn)我國(guó)滬市A股市場(chǎng)化定價(jià)提出一些簡(jiǎn)單的政策建議：1、將目前新股發(fā)行審核制由核準(zhǔn)制過(guò)度為注冊(cè)制；2、減少政府干預(yù)；3、適當(dāng)提高上市公司首發(fā)流通股比例；4、強(qiáng)化承銷(xiāo)商的中介責(zé)任,發(fā)揮承銷(xiāo)商的專業(yè)定價(jià)能力,擴(kuò)大詢價(jià)隊(duì)伍,形成買(mǎi)方競(jìng)爭(zhēng)市場(chǎng)。 本文研究的最終目的在于通過(guò)建立滬市A股IPO多因素定價(jià)模型作為發(fā)行人、承銷(xiāo)商以及機(jī)構(gòu)投資者在定價(jià)過(guò)程中的參考。鑒于筆者能力有限,本文中存在著一些不足,如影響因素的選取可能不全面、實(shí)證的結(jié)果可能與理想效果有偏差、研究的對(duì)象只有滬市A股等,但是總體而言文中最后得到的回歸方程具有一定的借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:In 2010, the new issue of new shares broke into the myth of "undefeated new shares" in all sectors, so the research on how to make reasonable issuing prices for new shares has become a hot topic in both the theoretical and practical circles under the current situation of new stock breaking. The pricing of.IPO is reasonable in order to ensure the success of IPO issuance. At the same time, we can also guarantee the rational investment of the investors and promote the optimal allocation of capital between the first and two markets, which can promote the healthy development of the stock market in China. The root cause of the new issue is "three high" (high issue price, high price earnings ratio, excess raise fund) and the issue price. The inner value of the company is far from the intrinsic value of the company, and the new stock break can push the value back. This new issue makes the appeal of the reform of the IPO system more and more appeals, and the core of the reform of the IPO system is the reform of the pricing mechanism. The goal of the reform is to realize the pricing of the new stock market. The pricing of the market is the market of the buyer and the seller. In the absence of government intervention, the buyers truly express their wishes. The price of the new shares is determined by the supply and demand of the stock. In addition, the market pricing can not be simply tested at the price of the price earnings ratio. As a result, it will change with the expected changes in the market environment, the issuer or the investor. It is more suitable for market pricing to test whether the pricing is reasonable by issuing the situation, such as whether the first day of the market break or the issue of the issue is failed.
At present, the basic theory about the pricing of industrial PO is relatively perfect and has been successfully used in foreign mature market. But the medium rare theory system has not been used well in the stock market of our country. The reason is that the development history of China's stock market is short, the market is not mature, and the investors follow the wind. The market speculation is serious and the investment can not be treated rationally. The most important reason may be that most issuers or underwriters choose the wrong pricing method in the IPO valuation process.
Therefore, the object of this study is to analyze the factors affecting the IPO pricing of A shares in Shanghai stock market in the context of the new issue of new shares, and to find out the internal and external factors that have an important impact on the pricing of IPO, in order to establish a regression model by using these internal and external factors to establish a set of IP suitable for the current national conditions of China. O pricing model to improve the pricing method of listed companies and improve the pricing efficiency.
The full text is divided into six chapters.
The first chapter is the introduction, which mainly introduces the background and significance of the research, the literature review at home and abroad, the ideas and methods of this paper and the innovation and shortcomings of the paper. The innovations of this paper are as follows: 1, this article first combines the new issue of new shares and the IPO price of A shares in Shanghai stock market and carries out an empirical study, and finally establishes it. The IPO multi factor pricing model of A shares in Shanghai stock market can effectively reduce the probability of breakout. 2, this sample data includes all A shares listed on the Shanghai stock exchange from May 18, 2006 new and old to December 31, 2010, and the time span is larger, and in this period, the stock market has experienced bull market, bear market and shock market. The empirical conclusions drawn from various forms are representative and convincing.
The second chapter mainly introduces the phenomenon and cause of the new issue. Since the seventh restart of IPO in June 2009, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market has ushered in the largest IPO issue. The wrong understanding of high risk free income is that the speculative atmosphere of "new must be fried" is serious. Institutional investors have long ignored the in-depth study of stock value, and they can not really play their professional pricing ability. There is a random quotation in the inquiry process. The direct result is that the price earnings ratio of new shares is far from the second level and the average level of the industry. With the dilution of the new stock pricing administrative guidance after June 2009, the new stock "new shares break" phenomenon beat the myth of the undefeated new shares. The root cause of the break is the "three high" problem, the price of new shares exceeds its investment value, the high price earnings premium is issued, the biggest benefit is the issuer and underwriter, and the interests of the investors are greatly affected. With the intensifying of new shares, the reform of the new issue mechanism is also on the agenda, and the core of the reform is the reform of the pricing mechanism and the final realization of the market pricing.
The third chapter mainly introduces the existing main IPO pricing theory and pricing model. The international popular IPO pricing theories are mainly intrinsic value theory, capital asset pricing theory and arbitrage pricing theory. The main IPO pricing model has discounted model (dividend discount model and cash flow model), comparable company method (P / E ratio method, City) There are several problems in the process of choosing the appropriate IPO pricing model in our country at present: 1, the financial information of the listed companies and the disclosure of non-financial information lack integrity and timeliness, which makes the accounting data distorted and incomplete; 2, Since many IPO pricing models are proposed on the basis of mature foreign securities market, China's securities market has a short history and is in a transition period, which can not meet the prerequisites required by some valuation models, such as effective market hypothesis. 3, some variables in the valuation model are difficult to predict, such as the discount rate in the discounted model, In addition, because the stock market is in the development period, the selection of many variables is not standard, it is completely selected and modified by the user. Therefore, it has certain subjectivity, thus reducing the effectiveness and comparability of the valuation results. Through analysis and comparison, the author thinks that the current securities market in China is in China. Under the current situation, the combination of the price earnings ratio method and the multi factor pricing model is more suitable. The combination of the P / E ratio method and the multi factor pricing model can consider the industry average p / E ratio as a factor affecting the IPO pricing. The multi factor pricing model is to build all the factors that affect the IPO pricing and the new issue price. Through the empirical analysis, the IPO regression model is established, which can effectively guide the formulation of the price of new shares.
The fourth chapter mainly introduces the pricing mechanism of IPO and the change of pricing mechanism in China. The existing IPO pricing mechanisms include fixed price pricing mechanism, auction pricing mechanism, accumulative tender pricing mechanism and mixed pricing mechanism. In the course of the development of China's securities market, the IPO pricing mechanism has undergone a series of complicated changes. Migration: fixed price stage, transient online bidding stage, relative fixed price earnings ratio phase, accumulative bidding pricing phase, control price / earnings ratio pricing phase and inquiry system. Although inquiry system is in practice in China at present, the inquiry system is not perfect, and its pricing efficiency is far from the real market pricing effect.
The fifth chapter mainly introduces the establishment and empirical analysis of IPO multi factor pricing model. In this paper, the factors affecting IPO pricing are divided into internal and external factors. Internal factors refer to the synthesis of factors that can directly reflect the growth capability and development prospects of Listed Companies in the process of pricing, and on the basis of the previous research results of previous studies. In this paper, 19 financial ratios are selected to describe the profitability, solvency, growth ability and operational ability of the listed companies. The so-called external factors are opposed to the internal factors, which can not directly determine the intrinsic value of the listed companies, but it can affect the collection of various factors of IPO pricing. This paper describes and analyzes the external impact of the market volatility, the average price earnings ratio of the industry, the size of the IPO issue and the underwriter level in the four aspects. After the qualitative analysis of these factors, the paper uses the SPSS software to study the selected 79 A shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange IPO. In order to reduce the number of independent variables, the 19 variables are compressed into 6 factors by factor analysis, and then the 6 factor variables and the other 5 external influence variables are gradually returned to the 19 factors. The IPO pricing regression equation is finally obtained by the results of stepwise regression and empirical test. Finally, the economic analysis of the empirical results is carried out. In many factors, there are only capital stock, earnings per share, net assets per share, undistributed profit per share, main business profit rate, net profit rate, total asset turnover rate, net asset turnover rate, industry average p / E. Factors such as rate, distribution scale and market risk before issuance have a significant impact on the IPO pricing of A shares in Shanghai stock market. Finally, the valuation model is used to estimate the price of A shares that have been broken in the first day of the Shanghai stock market in January 2011 and compared with the actual distribution price, and the actual issuance price is far greater than the forecast value, which also proves that the high price of new shares is the result of new shares. The cause of the break.
The sixth chapter is the conclusion and suggestion. First, we conclude that the IPO multi factor pricing prediction model in this paper can effectively reduce the phenomenon of new issue. Finally, it puts forward some simple policy suggestions on how to further promote the market pricing of A shares in Shanghai stock market in China: 1, the current IPO audit system is approved by the approval system. Degree for the registration system; 2, reduce government intervention; 3, appropriately raise the proportion of listed companies' initial circulation shares; 4, strengthen the intermediary responsibility of underwriters, give play to the professional pricing ability of underwriters, expand the inquiry team and form a buyer's competitive market.
The final purpose of this study is to establish the IPO multi factor pricing model of A shares in Shanghai stock market as a reference for the issuer, underwriter and institutional investor in the pricing process. In view of the limited ability of the author, there are some shortcomings in this paper, such as the selection of the factors may not be comprehensive, the results of the empirical study may be deviant from the ideal effect. The object of the study is only A shares in Shanghai stock market, but in general, the regression equation obtained in the paper is of some reference value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.51

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本文編號(hào)：1909607