【摘要】：吸煙危害人體健康的同時(shí)也增加國(guó)家公共健康的經(jīng)濟(jì)負(fù)擔(dān)。煙草消費(fèi)行為調(diào)查目前以問卷調(diào)查為主,該調(diào)查方法存在時(shí)間長(zhǎng)、費(fèi)用高、工作量大的特點(diǎn),為克服傳統(tǒng)方法的弊端,發(fā)展出基于污水分析的污水流行病學(xué)方法調(diào)查煙草消費(fèi)。本文利用污水流行病學(xué)方法調(diào)查了大連市的煙草消費(fèi)情況,通過采集大連市11個(gè)污水廠內(nèi)不同批次的污水進(jìn)水樣品,測(cè)定尼古丁及其代謝產(chǎn)物可替寧的濃度,通過建立估算模型反推計(jì)算煙草消費(fèi)數(shù)量并對(duì)估算結(jié)果進(jìn)行不確定性和敏感性分析,確定估算模型參數(shù)對(duì)煙草消費(fèi)量的影響,為制定相關(guān)的控制措施提供一定的依據(jù)。實(shí)驗(yàn)中利用主動(dòng)采樣器采集11個(gè)污水廠內(nèi)不同月份的24小時(shí)綜合污水進(jìn)水樣品進(jìn)行空間地域性差異分析,以及代表性污水廠一個(gè)月的污水進(jìn)水樣品進(jìn)行時(shí)間差異分析。污水樣品使用固相萃取-色譜質(zhì)譜進(jìn)行處理以及分析。測(cè)得結(jié)果顯示,代表性污水廠——LSH污水廠連續(xù)一個(gè)月進(jìn)水水樣的分析結(jié)果顯示都有尼古丁和可替寧檢出,其濃度范圍分別為 2.17-32.58 ng/mL 及 0.41-1.70ng/mL,尼古丁消費(fèi)量達(dá) 184.5±62.5g/d,范圍在75.2-316.6 g/d之間,無(wú)明顯時(shí)間差異性。而11個(gè)污水廠進(jìn)水水樣中可替寧及尼古丁的平均濃度分別為1.46±0.50ng/mL和9.39±3.96ng/mL,消費(fèi)量反推結(jié)果顯示,15周歲以上吸煙者人均尼古丁消費(fèi)量6.18±3.26mg/d,人均吸煙根數(shù)10.4±5.5CPD,并且呈現(xiàn)出明顯的城市低于郊區(qū)的現(xiàn)象。采用蒙特卡洛模擬對(duì)人均尼古丁消費(fèi)量和15周歲以上吸煙者人均吸煙根數(shù)進(jìn)行不確定性分析,結(jié)果表明隨著模型參數(shù)的增多,不確定性也會(huì)增大。敏感性分析表明對(duì)15周歲以上吸煙者人均尼古丁消費(fèi)量影響最大的參數(shù)為可替寧的代謝比例,而對(duì)人均吸煙根數(shù)影響最大的三個(gè)參數(shù)分別為吸煙時(shí)的尼古丁攝入率、每支香煙的尼古丁含量以及可替寧的代謝比例,此三項(xiàng)參數(shù)應(yīng)在研究中重點(diǎn)控制�；谖鬯餍胁W(xué)方法建立的煙草消費(fèi)模型能夠?qū)崟r(shí)、客觀和準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)城市煙草消費(fèi)量,得到的數(shù)據(jù)也與現(xiàn)有的傳統(tǒng)流行病學(xué)方法獲得的數(shù)據(jù)具有很好的一致性。
[Abstract]:While smoking endangers human health, it also increases the economic burden of national public health. At present, the survey of tobacco consumption behavior is based on questionnaire survey. This method has the characteristics of long time, high cost and large workload. In order to overcome the disadvantages of traditional methods, a sewage epidemiological method based on sewage analysis was developed to investigate tobacco consumption. The tobacco consumption in Dalian was investigated by using the method of sewage epidemiology. The concentration of nicotine and its metabolite, cotinine, was determined by collecting the influent samples of different batches of wastewater from 11 wastewater treatment plants in Dalian. By establishing an estimation model to calculate the amount of tobacco consumption and analyzing the uncertainty and sensitivity of the estimated results, the influence of the parameters of the estimation model on tobacco consumption is determined, which provides a basis for the formulation of relevant control measures. Active sampler was used to collect 24 hour integrated wastewater influent samples from 11 wastewater treatment plants in different months for spatial regional difference analysis and time difference analysis for typical wastewater inlet samples of one month in a typical wastewater treatment plant. The wastewater samples were treated and analyzed by solid phase extraction-mass spectrometry. The results showed that nicotine and cotinine were detected in the influent water samples of LSH wastewater treatment plant for one consecutive month, and the concentration ranges were 2.17-32.58 ng/mL and 0.41-1.70 ng / mL, respectively. Nicotine consumption was 184.5 鹵62.5 g / d, ranging from 75.2-316.6 g / d, with no significant time difference. However, the average concentrations of cotinine and nicotine in the influent water of 11 wastewater treatment plants were 1.46 鹵0.50ng/mL and 9.39 鹵3.96ng / mL, respectively. The average nicotine consumption of smokers over 15 years old was 6.18 鹵3.26mg / d. The number of smoking per capita was 10.4 鹵5.5 CPD, and it was obviously lower than that in the suburbs. Monte Carlo simulation was used to analyze the uncertainty of nicotine consumption per capita and smoking root number of smokers over 15 years old. The results showed that the uncertainty would increase with the increase of model parameters. Sensitivity analysis showed that the ratio of cotinine metabolism was the most important parameter affecting the consumption of nicotine per capita in smokers over 15 years old, while the three parameters that had the greatest influence on the number of smoking roots per person were the nicotine intake rate of smoking. The nicotine content of each cigarette and the metabolic ratio of cotinine should be controlled in the study. The tobacco consumption model based on wastewater epidemiology method can predict urban tobacco consumption in real time, objectively and accurately, and the obtained data are in good agreement with the data obtained by traditional epidemiological methods.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：R181

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