【摘要】：目的探討圓分布在傳染病發(fā)病高峰研究中的應(yīng)用策略。方法以四類傳染病數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),圓分布方法分析各病種流行規(guī)律,采用兩種區(qū)間估計(jì)方法計(jì)算發(fā)病高峰期。結(jié)果圓分布方法適用于單峰分布或略呈現(xiàn)雙峰分布的傳染病,對(duì)于雙峰分布傳染病,圓分布的雷氏檢驗(yàn)并不能給出合理的結(jié)果;采用bootstrap計(jì)算發(fā)病高峰期區(qū)間過(guò)窄,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差法結(jié)果較為合理。結(jié)論利用圓分布方法研究傳染病的流行規(guī)律時(shí),應(yīng)當(dāng)先作折線圖以便對(duì)該病種流行規(guī)律有宏觀了解,流行高峰應(yīng)當(dāng)結(jié)合折線圖和雷氏檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果觀察,對(duì)傳染病發(fā)病高峰期的計(jì)算,采用加減標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差法比bootstrap法更具優(yōu)勢(shì)。
[Abstract]:Objective to explore the application strategy of circular distribution in the study of peak incidence of infectious diseases. Methods based on the data of four kinds of infectious diseases, the epidemic pattern of each disease was analyzed by circular distribution method, and the peak period was calculated by two interval estimation methods. Results the circular distribution method is suitable for infectious diseases with single peak distribution or slightly bimodal distribution. For bimodal distribution infectious diseases, the Rayleigh test of circular distribution can not give a reasonable result. Using bootstrap to calculate the peak interval is too narrow and the result of standard deviation method is reasonable. Conclusion when using the circular distribution method to study the epidemic law of infectious diseases, we should first make a broken line map in order to have a macroscopic understanding of the epidemic law of the disease, and the epidemic peak should be observed in combination with the broken line map and the results of the Rayleigh test. To calculate the peak period of infectious disease, the addition and subtraction standard deviation method is superior to bootstrap method.
【作者單位】： 江蘇省疾病預(yù)防控制中心;
【基金】：江蘇省“十二·五”科教興衛(wèi)工程(ZX201109)
【分類號(hào)】：R181.3

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 王勁松;應(yīng)用圓分布法擬合研究人群的年齡分布[J];數(shù)理醫(yī)藥學(xué)雜志;2001年01期

2 李立豐,王林,叢洪良,張承宗;用圓分布法分析心肌梗死發(fā)病季節(jié)的變化規(guī)律[J];臨床心血管病雜志;2000年08期

3 張玉瑋,閻承珂;用圓分布方法分析臨沂地區(qū)流行性出血熱的發(fā)病情況[J];山東醫(yī)藥;1989年01期

4 陸衛(wèi)根;應(yīng)用圓分布法探討病毒性肝炎的季節(jié)分布[J];交通醫(yī)學(xué);1997年02期

5 鐘秋安;仇小強(qiáng);鄧瑩瑩;柏樺;;孕婦孕早期感冒發(fā)生日期的集中趨勢(shì)分析[J];中國(guó)現(xiàn)代醫(yī)學(xué)雜志;2011年07期

6 黃仁發(fā);吳磊;朱清仙;黃河浪;呂彩;張欣;;腦卒中的發(fā)病季節(jié)和時(shí)間規(guī)律分析[J];中國(guó)老年學(xué)雜志;2012年06期

7 ;[J];;年期

8 ;[J];;年期

9 ;[J];;年期

10 ;[J];;年期

，

本文編號(hào)：2373816