【摘要】：目的探討圓分布在傳染病發(fā)病高峰研究中的應(yīng)用策略。方法以四類傳染病數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),圓分布方法分析各病種流行規(guī)律,采用兩種區(qū)間估計方法計算發(fā)病高峰期。結(jié)果圓分布方法適用于單峰分布或略呈現(xiàn)雙峰分布的傳染病,對于雙峰分布傳染病,圓分布的雷氏檢驗并不能給出合理的結(jié)果;采用bootstrap計算發(fā)病高峰期區(qū)間過窄,標準差法結(jié)果較為合理。結(jié)論利用圓分布方法研究傳染病的流行規(guī)律時,應(yīng)當先作折線圖以便對該病種流行規(guī)律有宏觀了解,流行高峰應(yīng)當結(jié)合折線圖和雷氏檢驗結(jié)果觀察,對傳染病發(fā)病高峰期的計算,采用加減標準差法比bootstrap法更具優(yōu)勢。
[Abstract]:Objective to explore the application strategy of circular distribution in the study of peak incidence of infectious diseases. Methods based on the data of four kinds of infectious diseases, the epidemic pattern of each disease was analyzed by circular distribution method, and the peak period was calculated by two interval estimation methods. Results the circular distribution method is suitable for infectious diseases with single peak distribution or slightly bimodal distribution. For bimodal distribution infectious diseases, the Rayleigh test of circular distribution can not give a reasonable result. Using bootstrap to calculate the peak interval is too narrow and the result of standard deviation method is reasonable. Conclusion when using the circular distribution method to study the epidemic law of infectious diseases, we should first make a broken line map in order to have a macroscopic understanding of the epidemic law of the disease, and the epidemic peak should be observed in combination with the broken line map and the results of the Rayleigh test. To calculate the peak period of infectious disease, the addition and subtraction standard deviation method is superior to bootstrap method.
【作者單位】： 江蘇省疾病預(yù)防控制中心;
【基金】：江蘇省“十二·五”科教興衛(wèi)工程(ZX201109)
【分類號】：R181.3

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