本文選題：顆粒物 + 呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病��； 參考：《北京大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(醫(yī)學(xué)版)》2017年03期

【摘要】：目的:利用垂直濕度校正法校正氣溶膠光學(xué)厚度(aerosol optical depth,AOD),并探索校正AOD作為衡量大氣污染程度的指標(biāo)與人群健康結(jié)局建立暴露反應(yīng)關(guān)系的可行性。方法:先采用空間插值方法對AOD、地面PM_(2.5)、相對濕度和邊界層高度進(jìn)行插值以獲得不同地理位置的各項(xiàng)數(shù)據(jù),按照地理位置與北京市呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病死亡數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行匹配。利用大氣邊界層高度及由相對濕度計(jì)算得到的氣溶膠吸濕增長因子分別對AOD進(jìn)行垂直校正與濕度校正。為進(jìn)行對比,將校正AOD和PM_(2.5)采用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化法進(jìn)行無量綱化處理,使用廣義相加混合模型,控制時(shí)間趨勢、溫濕度效應(yīng)、星期幾效應(yīng)和節(jié)假日效應(yīng)等,得到無量綱化后的校正AOD與PM_(2.5)對北京市居民每日呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病總死亡和慢性阻塞性肺病(chronic obstructive pulmonary disease,COPD)死亡的急性效應(yīng)。結(jié)果:經(jīng)過垂直濕度校正后的AOD與PM_(2.5)相關(guān)系數(shù)達(dá)到0.72。累積滯后0~3 d(lag 0~3)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化校正AOD對呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病總死亡數(shù)及COPD死亡數(shù)的累積滯后效應(yīng)最強(qiáng),每升高1個(gè)單位,超額危險(xiǎn)度分別為3.64%(95%CI為0.58%~6.78%)和4.92%(95%CI為1.81%~8.14%)。累積滯后0~1 d(lag 0~1)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化PM_(2.5)對呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病死亡及COPD死亡的累積滯后效應(yīng)最強(qiáng),每升高1個(gè)單位(約155μg/m3),超額危險(xiǎn)度分別為3.96%(95%CI為0.82%~7.19%)及6.12%(95%CI為1.44%~11.02%)。與地面PM_(2.5)的效應(yīng)相比,校正AOD引起呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病死亡及COPD死亡效應(yīng)的置信區(qū)間較窄,對于捕捉顆粒物對居民每日死亡的滯后效應(yīng)更為敏感;且不同累積滯后天數(shù)的校正AOD對呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病死亡及COPD死亡的效應(yīng)均具有統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義,對于捕捉顆粒物對于居民死亡的累積滯后效應(yīng)更為敏感。結(jié)論:校正AOD可以反映地面顆粒物對北京市居民每日呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病死亡的影響,在缺乏地面監(jiān)測的情況下,可以使用校正AOD作為衡量大氣污染物的指標(biāo)與人群健康結(jié)局建立暴露反應(yīng)關(guān)系。
[Abstract]:Aim: to correct aerosol optical thickness (aerosol optical) by vertical humidity correction (VH), and to explore the feasibility of calibrating aerosol optical thickness (AOD) as an indicator of air pollution and establishing a relationship between exposure response and healthy outcome of the population. Methods: AODs, ground PM2.5, relative humidity and boundary layer height were interpolated by spatial interpolation method to obtain the data of different geographical locations, and matched with the death data of respiratory diseases in Beijing. The atmospheric boundary layer height and the aerosol moisture absorption growth factor calculated from the relative humidity were used for vertical correction and humidity correction of AOD, respectively. In order to compare, the calibration AOD and PM2.5 are processed in a dimensionless way with standardization method, and the generalized additive mixed model is used to control the time trend, the effect of temperature and humidity, the effect of days of the week and the effect of holidays, etc. The acute effects of dimensionless corrected AOD and PM2.5 on the total daily death of respiratory diseases and the death of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (chronic obstructive pulmonary) in Beijing residents were obtained. Results: the correlation coefficient between AOD and PM2.5 was 0.72 after vertical humidity correction. The cumulative lag of 0 ~ 3 d (lag / 0 ~ (3) was the highest in the total mortality and mortality of respiratory diseases. The excess risk was 3.64% (95 / 95 CI = 0.58 ~ 6.78%) and 4.92% (95 / 95 CI = 1.81 / 8.14%) for each unit of increase. The cumulative lag effect of PM _ (2.5) on death and death from respiratory diseases was strongest. For every unit (about 155 渭 g/m3), the excess risk was 3.96% (95CI = 0.82CI, 7.19%) and 6.12% (95 CI = 1.4411.02%), respectively. Compared with the surface PM2.5 effect, the confidence interval of the effects of AOD on respiratory system death and COPD death was narrower, and more sensitive to the lag effect of particulate matter capture on the daily death of residents. The effects of AOD on respiratory disease death and COPD death were statistically significant, and the cumulative lag effect of particulate matter capture was more sensitive to residents' death. Conclusion: the corrected AOD can reflect the effect of surface particulate matter on the daily respiratory disease death in Beijing residents, and it can not be monitored on the ground. Calibration AOD can be used as a measure of atmospheric pollutants and health outcomes of the population to establish an exposure response relationship.
【作者單位】： 北京大學(xué)公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院勞動衛(wèi)生與環(huán)境衛(wèi)生系;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金(81372950) 環(huán)境保護(hù)部公益項(xiàng)目(201409081)資助~~
【分類號】：R122;R56

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