本文選題：流行性腮腺炎 + 流行特征��； 參考：《蘭州大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：目的:探討2006～2015年長沙市居民流行性腮腺炎的流行病學(xué)特征和疫情暴發(fā)情況,并借助傳染病動(dòng)力學(xué)模型(SEIAR模型)揭示流行性腮腺炎的發(fā)生發(fā)展規(guī)律,預(yù)測長沙市流行性腮腺炎的發(fā)病、暴發(fā)趨勢及可能的患者人數(shù),為衛(wèi)生計(jì)生部門制定流行性腮腺炎的預(yù)警機(jī)制、防控策略和措施提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。方法:收集長沙市2006年1月1日~2015年12月31日疾病監(jiān)測信息報(bào)告管理系統(tǒng)和突發(fā)公共衛(wèi)生事件報(bào)告信息系統(tǒng)中的疫情數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用Excel2010和Spss19.0統(tǒng)計(jì)軟件對(duì)其進(jìn)行流行病學(xué)分析。運(yùn)用Berkeley Madonna軟件實(shí)驗(yàn)平臺(tái),將上述整理好的長沙市2006年1月1日至2015年12月31日流行性腮腺炎疾病資料作為模型數(shù)據(jù)庫,構(gòu)建傳染病動(dòng)力學(xué)SEIAR模型,基于動(dòng)力學(xué)模型理論深入分析流行性腮腺炎在各人群各年齡段的傳播規(guī)律。結(jié)果:(1)長沙市2006~2015年累計(jì)報(bào)告流行性腮腺炎病例28895例,年均發(fā)病率為43.73/10萬,無死亡病例。(2)發(fā)病高峰出現(xiàn)在每年4月~7月,占總報(bào)告發(fā)病數(shù)的45.20%,其中5、6月最多,占全年發(fā)病總數(shù)的27.07%;次高峰在11月~12月及次年1月,占總報(bào)告發(fā)病數(shù)的25.59%。(3)年齡分布以3~15歲兒童青少年為主,占總病例數(shù)的81.96%。男女發(fā)病比例為1.58:1,年均發(fā)病報(bào)告率分別為32.46/10萬和20.53/10萬。(4)職業(yè)分布以學(xué)生、托幼兒童和散居兒童為主,占總報(bào)告發(fā)病數(shù)的88.02%。(5)2006~2015年長沙市9個(gè)區(qū)(縣)均有報(bào)告疫情,共報(bào)告暴發(fā)疫情36起,暴發(fā)疫情中共報(bào)告病例967例,平均罹患率2.22%。疫情報(bào)告數(shù)最多的是岳麓區(qū)10起,占總報(bào)告數(shù)的27.78%,其次是寧鄉(xiāng)縣6起,占總報(bào)告數(shù)的16.67%,開福區(qū)最少為1起;疫情暴發(fā)時(shí)間主要集中在3月~6月、10月~12月,發(fā)生場所均在學(xué)校。(6)利用SEIAR模型深入分析流行性腮腺炎的發(fā)生發(fā)展規(guī)律,結(jié)果顯示:3~5歲、6~14歲年齡組是在流行性腮腺炎發(fā)病中傳播流行性腮腺炎病毒能力最強(qiáng)的人群,預(yù)測顯示在未來一年里的冬春季仍是流行性腮腺炎發(fā)病的高峰期。結(jié)論:(1)長沙市流行性腮腺炎發(fā)病率整體成上升趨勢,發(fā)病率在13.74/10萬~70.83/10萬間波動(dòng),形勢不容樂觀。(2)3~14歲是傳播流腮病毒能力最強(qiáng)的年齡段,也是疾病高發(fā)年齡段;長沙市流行性腮腺炎表現(xiàn)明顯的季節(jié)性,每年3~6月、10~12月份,即冬春季是流腮發(fā)病的高發(fā)期。(3)流行性腮腺炎暴發(fā)疫情在長沙市9個(gè)區(qū)(縣)均有報(bào)告發(fā)生,且暴發(fā)地點(diǎn)在學(xué)校。(4)SEIAR模型對(duì)流行性腮腺炎發(fā)病率的擬合及預(yù)測效果較好,能較好地揭示流腮發(fā)生發(fā)展過程中各年齡段各人群的傳播能力特點(diǎn),但在實(shí)際應(yīng)用中需要注意其他綜合因素對(duì)結(jié)果的影響。
[Abstract]:Objective: to investigate the epidemiological characteristics and epidemic situation of mumps in Changsha from 2006 to 2015, and to reveal the occurrence and development of mumps by means of epidemic dynamics model (SEIAR model). To predict the incidence, outbreak trend and the number of possible patients of mumps in Changsha City, to provide scientific basis for the establishment of early warning mechanism, prevention and control strategies and measures for mumps in health and family planning departments. Methods: the epidemic data of disease surveillance information management system and public health emergency report information system were collected from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2015 in Changsha City. The epidemiological data were analyzed by Excel2010 and Spss19.0 statistical software. The epidemic dynamics SEIAR model was constructed by using the Berkeley Madonna software experimental platform and the mumps disease data collected from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2015 in Changsha as a model database. Based on the kinetic model theory, the distribution of mumps in different age groups was analyzed. Results 28895 cases of mumps were reported in Changsha from 2006 to 2015, with an average annual incidence of 43.73 / 100, 000, and no death cases. The highest incidence occurred from April to July of each year, accounting for 45.20% of the total reported cases, of which the most was in May and June. The second peak was from November to December and the next January. The age distribution of the total reported incidence was 25.59. the age distribution was mainly among children and adolescents aged 15 years, accounting for 81.96% of the total number of cases. The incidence ratio of male to female was 1.58: 1, and the annual reported incidence rate was 32.46 / 100 thousand and 20.53% / 100 thousand respectively. The occupational distribution was mainly students, nursery children and children living in the diaspora, accounting for 88.02% of the total reported incidence. From 2006 to 2015, all the 9 districts (counties) in Changsha City had reported outbreaks. A total of 36 outbreaks were reported and 967 cases were reported, with an average attack rate of 2.22%. The most reported cases were in Yuelu District, accounting for 27.78% of the total number of reports, followed by 6 cases in Ningxiang County, 16.67% of the total number reported, and at least 1 case in Kaifu District. The outbreak time was mainly from March to June, October to December. The SEIAR model was used to analyze the occurrence and development of mumps. The results showed that the age group of 6 to 14 years of age was the most capable of spreading the mumps virus in the onset of mumps. Forecasts show that the winter and spring of the coming year will still be the peak for mumps. Conclusion (1) the incidence of mumps in Changsha is on the rise. The incidence rate fluctuates in the range of 13.74 / 100000 to 70.83 / 100, 000. The situation is not optimistic. The age of 314 years old is the age of the strongest ability to spread the gills virus, and the age of high incidence of the disease. The epidemic situation of mumps in Changsha City is obviously seasonal, and the outbreak of mumps is reported in 9 districts (counties) of Changsha City in December of March to June, that is, winter and spring. The incidence rate of mumps was fitted and predicted by SEIAR model in school, and it could reveal the characteristics of transmission ability of different age groups in the process of occurrence and development of gills. However, in practical application, attention should be paid to the influence of other comprehensive factors on the results.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：R181.3;R512.1

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 劉琳玲;長沙市流行性腮腺炎流行病學(xué)特征及模型預(yù)測研究[D];蘭州大學(xué);2017年

，

本文編號(hào)：1925819